Strategically Puntland has entered a war it cannot win. A war it cannot afford to fight.
Puntland recognises that it cannot sustain an all out war with Somaliland, primarily due to its major population centres being so proximate to SL border. Boosaaso, Qardho and Garowe are all less than 20km away from the border line. A major vulnerability for them. They can't risk Somaliland invading these towns.
They will rue day they decided to claim our Sool and Sanaag. They could've recognised Somaliland and had a peaceful neighbour. In fact Somaliland never had any beef with Puntland but with the Somalia federal government. But Puntland make a grave mistaking choosing conflict over peace with Somaliland. They mis underestimated Somaliland's resolve. Puntland should relinquish Sool and Sanaag for the sake of peace
-Puntland is fighting in its home turf.
-They have steady supply of reinforcements
-The longer this war continues, the longer other Harti tribes are emboldened
-Division within Isaaqs
In order for SL to push into Yooacada against seemingly stubborn Puntland, they would need both overwhelming superiority in numbers and fire power.
There is no evidence that SL has either. With all things being equal, I give the edge to the home team, Puntland
It would stupid for SL to continue the war as it’s not ready. Perhaps Muse Biixi needs to raise more troops and gather more weapons in the meantime he needs to buy time