HSM was right in attacking Madoobe

[Barkhadle1520]

AS is a massive threat to the south and its advancement, there must be gurmad garabstaag from both governments from a pragmatic point of view. Whatever bad blood and naceyb there is, should be pushed to the back and Gurgurte should be working with the Black shadow of Qabri Dahar to fight off AS.

I think we all know by now HSM dont gaf about shabab and hes not hiding it

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Your reasoning is flawed sxb.. By comparing California and Washington with JL and Muqdisho is simply like comparing apples and bananas, Somalia is an unstable country which is still recovering from the civil and still battling shabab, as you there are 20 thousand foreign troops including Ethiopian troops in southern Somalia to support the weak government in muqdisho.. Naturally HSM should've focused on defeating the shabab while bringing the federal states closer to the government, what have he done instead? Focused on excessive useless travellings, weakened the SNA, focused on tribal politics, changed the constitution to grant himself an extension when, alienated the federal members states.. The attack on JL had nothing to do the nations interest or well being but everything to do with HSM ambitions and greed..

I agree with all this except that I believe fgs was forced to move into gedo, its clear what abiy is trying to do and if they let him do it now it will be harder to deal with the problem later

Madoobe will go sooner or later, but maybe this is not an important thing at the moment..

My point is that its important now cause hes bringing in Ethiopia, you lot seem to ignore this fact for some reason, I dont care about madoobe staying in power or whatever

Beside the Ethiopians in Gedo are not driven by Madobe, but they're afraid to have Egypt in their border area under the guise of peacekeeping,

Bruh I literally showed above how JL and Ethiopia are literally working togheter, this has nothing to do with Egypt come on now

yet another miscalculated deal and dobbelt play HSM, all this to push through his illegal constitution changes and extend his term.. No matter how you turn and twist it the blame for this would always fall in HSM and his poor leadership.

Lets be clear Hsm dont care about the state of the country he is a businessman and he is making tons of money, but some problems are too big to ignore, when you have Ethiopia invading a whole region attacking your troops directly and telling you to abandon your own region, and adding to that a whole other region of your country is allied to them and also attacking your troops

This situation isnt about Hsm there is no way any political figure would let this slide, even Farmajo

 

[AlteKartel]

Somalia full of too many people trying to put the carriage before the horse. AS is a bigger threat than Ahmed Black and the FGS should be fully focused on eradicating them from central Somalia.

Once you consolidate power close to home then you can think about expanding your sphere of influence. Everything with JL rn is just a distraction and you’re falling for it Aboowe.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Somalia full of too many people trying to put the carriage before the horse. AS is a bigger threat than Ahmed Black and the FGS should be fully focused on eradicating them from central Somalia.

Everyone knows this but HSM apparently doesnt care about AS so what can you do

Once you consolidate power close to home then you can think about expanding your sphere of influence. Everything with JL rn is just a distraction and you’re falling for it Aboowe.

Its not about fgs expanding, if it was them deliberatly attacking madoobe then it could be argued, do you understand that madoobe pulled abdullahi yusuf move in 2025 ? I know its long but read back everything I wrote

 

[AlteKartel]

Everyone knows this but HSM apparently doesnt care about AS so what can you do

Its not about fgs expanding, if it was them deliberatly attacking madoobe then it could be argued, do you understand that madoobe pulled abdullahi yusuf move in 2025 ? I know its long but read back everything I wrote

Our neighbors are opportunists because our government is weak. Our government will remain weak until it can credibly reclaim land from al shabaab and hold it long-term.

The second Al shabaab is gone the FGS can focus on putting FMS in line and ensuring the are not able to collude with foreign powers. Right now the FGS trying to pick fights it can’t win while getting punched in the back of the head by someone else. Focus on one fight at a time is all I’m saying.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Our neighbors are opportunists because our government is weak. Our government will remain weak until it can credibly reclaim land from al shabaab and hold it long-term.

HSM dont want to beat Shabab

Right now the FGS trying to pick fights it can’t win while getting punched in the back of the head by someone else. Focus on one fight at a time is all I’m saying.

How did they start this fight, did you read what I wrote

I would agree with you if they had started this but for a while they were the victims, people only looked their way when they counter attacked

 

[FBIsomalia]

Too many events to cover in 2024 but basically throughout the year Jubaland and FGS are on very bad terms

Here is a recap

December 2024 - Ethiopian officials land in Jubaland for talks with Jubaland officials and Madoobe without the accord of FGS

View attachment 369630

23 December 2024 - First violent clashes between JL and SNA are instigated by Ethiopia, SNA Base attacked by Ethiopia while JL troops take Doolow in a coordinated well planned attack

Ethiopian and Jubaland forces seize Dolow after deadly clashes with Somali army

Mogadishu (HOL) — Ethiopian and Jubaland forces have reportedly seized control of Dolow, a key town in Somalia’s Gedo region, after intense clashes with the Somali National Army on Sunday. The confrontation left heavy casualties on both sides and escalated tensions between Somalia, Ethiopia, and...

www.hiiraan.com

View attachment 369633

For most of 2025 Jubaland forces will keep on attacking SNA all over Gedo specifically, with Ethiopian support

Sunday July 27 - Head of NISA and HSM visit Ethiopia


Monday July 28 - Ethiopian troops launch a night attack and destroy NISA/SNA base and move into the region

https://mustaqbalmedia.net/en/inten...low-as-ethiopian-troops-target-nisa-facility/

The morning after the attack civilians had enough and took to the streets to protest Ethiopian rule and were massacred by those same Ethiopian troops in Dolow


August 6 - Ethiopia orders FGS to withdraw from the whole Gedo region, their invasion seems to have been succesful and Gedo is now under Ethiopian control


August 7 - Civilians in Beled Xawo start protesting Ethiopian rule as well



What I think will happen in the following days is FGS wont be able to repel the Ethiopian invasion due to Al Shabab that's right next door, so Gedo will be fully annexed by Ethiopia and SNA will have to leave Gedo, expect more atrocities done to the Civilian population and videos to surface

Crazy that some people consider JL under Madoobe as its own FMS when its acting like this, Madoobe still has that 90s warlord spirit he would shake his ass just at the thought of Ethiopian bribes

How annexed land of another country??.

JL is ruler of its land.

 

[SpaceyCadet]

The GERD and access to the coast is Ethiopia's only hope to save itself

Abiy is just trying everything so he can get access to the coast, he knows Eritrea is too risky, so he's trying to see if he can weaken Somalia a bit more right now, his goal isnt to go on some conquest in Koonfur to get access to the coast there, which is unrealistc given shabab and all the armed Somalis concentrated in that place

What he's trying to do is to weaken the Somali government to a point where they become his vassals, he wants another Gedi, he wants to order around Somalis like his puppets, just like Ethiopia was successfully doing in the 90s with governments like the TNG

And believe it or not he's kinda successful for now, he made perfect use of the divide and conquer strategy with Madoobe, he took advantage of the tensions between Madoobe and FGS so he's now allied with Madoobe and showing support to him officially and military has we've seen in the past weeks, and Abiy is trying to get a strong grip on Jubaland so he can get access to Kismayo, most of the public doesn't know this and they're fixated on the Somaliland MoU but it's so obvious I'm sure every Somali politician knows it by now Kismayo and Madoobe are a greater risk and a much bigger reward for Abiy, FGS also has to deal with shabab between them and Jubaland so they're cooked

We were critizising HSM for what he did attacking Jubaland but when you look into it he has no other choice by now, even if it was Farmajo I think conflict with Ethiopia and Madoobe was inevitable, the worst part is that Abiy time this perfectly to when HSM and head of NISA were in Ethiopia, in fact I'm sure the Ethiopian strikes were the night after the two presidents and officials met, until now I thought HSM knew about this all along but now I'm sure this is a carefully conceived plot by Abiy that HSM wasn't aware about

And Yesterday we learn that Ethiopia has officially ordered FGS to desert Gedo, their first part of the plan to get to Kismayo is annexing Gedo

Am I missing something here or does this seem logical ?

Nice work.

I completely agree on your take on ethiopia motivation (coast). ethiopia has shown it’s in dire need of some win. A navy base or something that shifts their self image. The whole egypt, sudan, eritrea, and somalia has caused them to feel encircled.

The ethiopians are rallying for sea access. Not a navy. it might placate them for a bit but not long. The whole expansionist imperial ideology of that nation needs tedrow from meke-tuulo#3452 to drive from his village to his sea without any border patrol, a navy base does not fix that

a kismayoo base is not their goal, especially when they would need to project +1500km.

Everything for ethiopias red sea access revolves around assab. not berberachew, zeila (maybe), or malmö.

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[AlteKartel]

HSM dont want to beat Shabab

How did they start this fight, did you read what I wrote

I would agree with you if they had started this but for a while they were the victims, people only looked their way when they counter attacked

This whole JL situation started becuase HSM and Madoobe fell out over election timelines. Why should HSM waste energy giving a shit if Madoobe is the master of Jubaland for another 4 years? Ahmed Black was willing to sign on to his entire agenda up until that point.

Reality is that every action HSM takes is for his own calool. He wants to be re-elected and pilfer the country for another 4 years. Him and Madoobe are crooks but at least Madoobe doesn’t affect Somalia beyond Kismaayo.

 

[AlteKartel]

My dream is to see a strong FGS capable of defending Somalia’s interests and setting the framework for how FMS should operate in regards to healthcare, education, etc.

The current FGS is trying to run before walking. As long as that happens Somalia will continue to stumble and our neighbors will take advantage of us at will.

 

[Dagdag]

Nice work.

I completely agree on your take on ethiopia motivation (coast). ethiopia has shown it’s in dire need of some win. A navy base or something that shifts their self image. The whole egypt, sudan, eritrea, and somalia has caused them to feel encircled.

The ethiopians are rallying for sea access. Not a navy. it might placate them for a bit but not long. The whole expansionist imperial ideology of that nation needs tedrow from meke-tuulo#3452 to drive from his village to his sea without any border patrol, a navy base does not fix that

a kismayoo base is not their goal, especially when they would need to project +1500km.

Everything for ethiopias red sea access revolves around assab. not berberachew, zeila (maybe), or malmö.

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Somewhere in somaliland is possible if somaliland suports it but they won’t be able to strong arm it from them or anywhere else in Somalia. It will be way to expensive from cost and lives. Ethiopia pays about 2 billion port fees 97% goes to Djibouti they have roads, railways, and stability. Would you want 50 million turbine for gerd going through mudug or rest of Somalia where people do extortion and sometimes even take whole shipment for themselves. Now imagine Ethiopia trying to do hostile take over and get packages from Somali coast then travel hundreds of miles back over border safely while at war with Somalia. it will cost them way more than 2 billion when it’s all said and done and also international community will punish them. They will only get access if given access by major Somalis powers whether it’s FMS or fgs granting access

 

[Dagdag]

What about the videos of them protesting it, where do you get this info from

There are just as many videos of admin and people supporting Ethiopians. They are majority and reason why Ethiopians there today. If everyone was on same page wouldn’t be all these factions in gedo fighting . Do google search and you will even find old threads somaliapot especially when Egyptians troops plan was revealed

 

[Barkhadle1520]

This whole JL situation started becuase HSM and Madoobe fell out over election timelines. Why should HSM waste energy giving a shit if Madoobe is the master of Jubaland for another 4 years? Ahmed Black was willing to sign on to his entire agenda up until that point.

Reality is that every action HSM takes is for his own calool. He wants to be re-elected and pilfer the country for another 4 years. Him and Madoobe are crooks but at least Madoobe doesn’t affect Somalia beyond Kismaayo.

I wasnt talking about the dispute as a whole but military action

 

[Barkhadle1520]

My dream is to see a strong FGS capable of defending Somalia’s interests and setting the framework for how FMS should operate in regards to healthcare, education, etc.

The current FGS is trying to run before walking. As long as that happens Somalia will continue to stumble and our neighbors will take advantage of us at will.

Lol the reason TFG/FGS were created was to destroy the only strong Somali government since Barre, they were never placed in xamar for the sake of state building, the un dude who oversees them was the one who pushed for the butcher of mogadishu to invade, once you connect the dots you realize everything is meant to be how it is today

By nature a strong Somali government is very bad news for the west and their allies in the region, if fgs gets too strong or independent there is no way theyre gonna keep being alligned with the west

If they wanted a strong Somali nation they wouldnt have invaded in the first place and put abdullahi yusuf in xamar

 

[Barkhadle1520]

The ethiopians are rallying for sea access. Not a navy.

If they get access to the coast the priority will be a navy

Say Hypotetically they manage to get Kismayo, wouldnt Somalia next door bring their ships to prevent anything from being built ? Dont forget hsm has signed a 10 year contract with turkey in which it was said that Turkey has to rebuild Somalia's navy, and just a month ago navy commanders were going shopping in turkey

 

[Barkhadle1520]

a kismayoo base is not their goal, especially when they would need to project +1500km.

I cant see any other reason they're taking so much risk and investing in the Gedo conflict, lets be clear Ethiopia needs a coast in the next decade its a matter of survival for them and their tanking economy, Eritrea is a big fat no, SL is complicated and probably wont end good for them, if you were Abiy and you saw the golden opportunity with Madoobe, would you honestly ignore it ? Its blatant what they're trying to do but mark my words people will realize either end of this year or next year

 

[Abdisamad]

I agree with all this except that I believe fgs was forced to move into gedo, its clear what abiy is trying to do and if they let him do it now it will be harder to deal with the problem later

My point is that its important now cause hes bringing in Ethiopia, you lot seem to ignore this fact for some reason, I dont care about madoobe staying in power or whatever

Bruh I literally showed above how JL and Ethiopia are literally working togheter, this has nothing to do with Egypt come on now

Lets be clear Hsm dont care about the state of the country he is a businessman and he is making tons of money, but some problems are too big to ignore, when you have Ethiopia invading a whole region attacking your troops directly and telling you to abandon your own region, and adding to that a whole other region of your country is allied to them and also attacking your troops

This situation isnt about Hsm there is no way any political figure would let this slide, even Farmajo

Bro, I don't want to write a long essay to explain you this, but in short Ethiopia has been in control of these areas for many years it is nothing new.. Madoobe did not bring the Ethiopians they've always been there, FGS sending Janan to fight JL has nothing to do with driving out Ethiopia but more to do with HSM's constitution changes and holding his failed one vote one man elections. Simply put if he can have the elections in Gedo then he can claim he holded elections in Jubaland, the reason the Ethiopians don't want the FGS forces is rooted in their for Egyptians being placed there as part of Amisom peacekeeping forces,which would pose a threat to Ethiopia since they're rivals.. No one cares about Somalia or it's sovereignty, it's all about greedy politics and personal interests.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

A report was recently released looking at the politics of Gedo. Very pessimistic after reading this. Gedo could be an economic hub for Somalia connecting to the Ethiopian and Kenyan economies. It is deeply unfortunate for all Somalis that Farmaajo and Culusow have chosen to destabilize the region instead of facilitating negotiations between Jubaland admin and the state's elites.

https://peacerep.org/publication/gedo-jubbaland-and-the-translocal-marehan/

 

[Removed]

HSM dont want to beat Shabab

How did they start this fight, did you read what I wrote

I would agree with you if they had started this but for a while they were the victims, people only looked their way when they counter attacked

The FGS invaded RKB late November 2024 and has been at war since. In HSM's khutbah, he demanded the funds from the port/airport, referenced the 'regions' diversity' as grounds for invasion, demanded the right to control its elections, and used a Benadir regional court to issue a warrant on JL's president.

This is an open declaration of war against the Ogaden-led JL. He has refused to accept Madoobe's victory, instead choosing to restrict flights of people seeking medical care and attack loosely allied outfits in Gedo for MPs. He makes himself a victim, and I praise Allah for it.

I cant see any other reason they're taking so much risk and investing in the Gedo conflict, lets be clear Ethiopia needs a coast in the next decade its a matter of survival for them and their tanking economy, Eritrea is a big fat no, SL is complicated and probably wont end good for them, if you were Abiy and you saw the golden opportunity with Madoobe, would you honestly ignore it ? Its blatant what they're trying to do but mark my words people will realize either end of this year or next year

This is what happens when you use only abstract thinking to come to political beliefs/predictions, it's common for people who can't read Somali(Redditors)

Gedo = JL = Madoobe = Kismayo = Coast for Ethiopia.

 

[AbdiBinLaden]

My dream is to see a strong FGS capable of defending Somalia’s interests and setting the framework for how FMS should operate in regards to healthcare, education, etc.

The current FGS is trying to run before walking. As long as that happens Somalia will continue to stumble and our neighbors will take advantage of us at will.

So let me get straight your all good with probably the biggest cancer in somali politics to survive all for ??? I guess in the name of humiliating HSM lol you people speak like children playing cod lol