HSM was right in attacking Madoobe

[Barkhadle1520]

The GERD and access to the coast is Ethiopia's only hope to save itself

Abiy is just trying everything so he can get access to the coast, he knows Eritrea is too risky, so he's trying to see if he can weaken Somalia a bit more right now, his goal isnt to go on some conquest in Koonfur to get access to the coast there, which is unrealistc given shabab and all the armed Somalis concentrated in that place

What he's trying to do is to weaken the Somali government to a point where they become his vassals, he wants another Gedi, he wants to order around Somalis like his puppets, just like Ethiopia was successfully doing in the 90s with governments like the TNG

And believe it or not he's kinda successful for now, he made perfect use of the divide and conquer strategy with Madoobe, he took advantage of the tensions between Madoobe and FGS so he's now allied with Madoobe and showing support to him officially and military has we've seen in the past weeks, and Abiy is trying to get a strong grip on Jubaland so he can get access to Kismayo, most of the public doesn't know this and they're fixated on the Somaliland MoU but it's so obvious I'm sure every Somali politician knows it by now Kismayo and Madoobe are a greater risk and a much bigger reward for Abiy, FGS also has to deal with shabab between them and Jubaland so they're cooked

We were critizising HSM for what he did attacking Jubaland but when you look into it he has no other choice by now, even if it was Farmajo I think conflict with Ethiopia and Madoobe was inevitable, the worst part is that Abiy time this perfectly to when HSM and head of NISA were in Ethiopia, in fact I'm sure the Ethiopian strikes were the night after the two presidents and officials met, until now I thought HSM knew about this all along but now I'm sure this is a carefully conceived plot by Abiy that HSM wasn't aware about

And Yesterday we learn that Ethiopia has officially ordered FGS to desert Gedo, their first part of the plan to get to Kismayo is annexing Gedo

Am I missing something here or does this seem logical ?

 

[Abdisamad]

Bla bla bla.. Just another low iq rant to defend the corrupt pig in muqdisho..

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Too many events to cover in 2024 but basically throughout the year Jubaland and FGS are on very bad terms

Here is a recap

December 2024 - Ethiopian officials land in Jubaland for talks with Jubaland officials and Madoobe without the accord of FGS

23 December 2024 - First violent clashes between JL and SNA are instigated by Ethiopia, SNA Base attacked by Ethiopia while JL troops take Doolow in a coordinated well planned attack

Ethiopian and Jubaland forces seize Dolow after deadly clashes with Somali army

Mogadishu (HOL) — Ethiopian and Jubaland forces have reportedly seized control of Dolow, a key town in Somalia’s Gedo region, after intense clashes with the Somali National Army on Sunday. The confrontation left heavy casualties on both sides and escalated tensions between Somalia, Ethiopia, and...

www.hiiraan.com

For most of 2025 Jubaland forces will keep on attacking SNA all over Gedo specifically, with Ethiopian support

Sunday July 27 - Head of NISA and HSM visit Ethiopia


Monday July 28 - Ethiopian troops launch a night attack and destroy NISA/SNA base and move into the region

https://mustaqbalmedia.net/en/inten...low-as-ethiopian-troops-target-nisa-facility/

The morning after the attack civilians had enough and took to the streets to protest Ethiopian rule and were massacred by those same Ethiopian troops in Dolow


August 6 - Ethiopia orders FGS to withdraw from the whole Gedo region, their invasion seems to have been succesful and Gedo is now under Ethiopian control


August 7 - Civilians in Beled Xawo start protesting Ethiopian rule as well



What I think will happen in the following days is FGS wont be able to repel the Ethiopian invasion due to Al Shabab that's right next door, so Gedo will be fully annexed by Ethiopia and SNA will have to leave Gedo, expect more atrocities done to the Civilian population and videos to surface

Crazy that some people consider JL under Madoobe as its own FMS when its acting like this, Madoobe still has that 90s warlord spirit he would shake his ass just at the thought of Ethiopian bribes

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Bla bla bla.. Just another low iq rant to defend the corrupt pig in muqdisho..

If you know me I'm not a fan of FGS or HSM, you shouldn't let your feelings get in the way when analyzing politics, HSM was right to fight JL but he fucked up, Gedo is lost

Somalia is very unlucky to have HSM, the most incompetent president yet, at the most critical time, FGS is already struggling with Shabab so imagine if they have to watch over Jubaland and a possible Ethiopian invasion, Madoobe took Somalia back 2 decades, its gonna be hard to depose Madoobe he also has too many Ogaden loyalists fighting for him

But the population of Jubaland Im sure theyre not very fond of him, JL is infested by Shabab and JL farmers literally cannot sell anything because of their checkpoints

At this point I think only Madoobe dying would save this situation but another one of his loyalists will take his place, I really dont see how FGS can get their heads around this one, they should've locked in in 2022 and beat Shabab but since HSM is the worst tuug ever and dont care about beating shabab its over

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Crazy how people change, Madoobe fought for the ICU against the Warlord-CIA coalition and got rewarded with Jubaland when ICU took it from warlords, he fought the Ethiopian invasion and barely survived, when the sharif sheikh betrayed icu and became president he warned them to be careful of foreign conspiracies

I think his dispute with FGS is that he took Kismayo from Shabab in 2012 with the help of the Kenyan army, same year FGS was created they declared that he was only an interim president and he disagreed saying he earned his presidency, so even without the ethiopian invasion fgs would still want him to leave, old man seems to be hungry for power

 

[Abdisamad]

If you know me I'm not a fan of FGS or HSM, you shouldn't let your feelings get in the way when analyzing politics, HSM was right to fight JL but he fucked up, Gedo is lost

Somalia is very unlucky to have HSM, the most incompetent president yet, at the most critical time, FGS is already struggling with Shabab so imagine if they have to watch over Jubaland and a possible Ethiopian invasion, Madoobe took Somalia back 2 decades, its gonna be hard to depose Madoobe he also has too many Ogaden loyalists fighting for him

But the population of Jubaland Im sure theyre not very fond of him, JL is infested by Shabab and JL farmers literally cannot sell anything because of their checkpoints

At this point I think only Madoobe dying would save this situation but another one of his loyalists will take his place, I really dont see how FGS can get their heads around this one, they should've locked in in 2022 and beat Shabab but since HSM is the worst tuug ever and dont care about beating shabab its over

HSM was in Addis Ababa just 2 weeks ago, he also invited Abey to Muqdisho.. He's goverment is weak not because of Madobe or Ethiopia, but due to greed, corruption and mismanagement.. He's war on Madobe was not about defending the Somali nation, but more about HSM ambitions to become a dictator, one ruler.. But he forgot he doesn't have the money or military to become a dictator, all in all thanks to HSM's bad leadership, greedyness and corruption we have a very fragmented and weak Somalia..

 

[Barkhadle1520]

HSM was in Addis Ababa just 2 weeks ago, he also invited Abey to Muqdisho.. He's goverment is weak not because of Madobe or Ethiopia, but due to greed, corruption and mismanagement..

Never disagreed on that

He's war on Madobe was not about defending the Somali nation, but more about HSM ambitions to become a dictator, one ruler

Did you not read all that I wrote, instead of just throwing random accusations I suggest you actually look into it and bring reasoning to your claims, I did a full in depth analysis of the situation, you disagree with me but you havent adressed any of my claims or told me why my reasoning is wrong, in fact Im sure you havent read what I wrote..

The issue with FGS is exactly whats happening with Madoobe, this is like California being able to challenge Washington and bring in Russian troops, this is against the constitution and everything that they have agreed on, a FMS cannot hold that much power or they're simply not a FMS anymore

For the sake of stability and state-building Madoobe has to go, unless you want to see the people of Jubaland getting more opressed by Shabab and now Ethiopian troops (who did lots of kufsi and massacres when they invaded btw)

Even if Madoobe was elected and choosen in 2012 he is well past his time, its been more than a decade and the only accurate word to describe him is a power hungry dictator, just like siad he wont let go and will do anything to stay on his kursi, as seen by his alliance with Abiy

This is a neutral non biased analysis, this is the conclusion of my own research and not some baseless claims thrown around because Im a HSM or FGS fan boy, Im not even from koonfur anyways and I dont support FGS at all

 

[Neptune]

The issue with FGS is exactly whats happening with Madoobe, this is like California being able to challenge Washington and bring in Russian troops, this is against the constitution and everything that they have agreed on, a FMS cannot hold that much power or they're simply not a FMS anymore

The FGS has no authority over the FMS, nor should it. They have no power to dictate anything.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

The FGS has no authority over the FMS, nor should it. They have no power to dictate anything.

So for you its perfectly normal for FMS to go visit Abiy and cook up their own plans ?

Just to give you an idea of how idiotic this sounds, according to you, the president of Texas has the right to handle his own armed troops and decide his own foreign policy separate from washington, he can invade mexico and launch wars at will and can even conspire against washington to give parts of the country to other countries

How could a country be considered a sovereign like this ? Please consider thinking before writing, save us this dumb useless argument

 

[Neptune]

So for you its perfectly normal for FMS to go visit Abiy and cook up their own plans ?

Just to give you an idea of how idiotic this sounds, according to you, the president of Texas has the right to handle his own armed troops and decide his own foreign policy separate from washington, he can invade mexico and launch wars at will and can even conspire against washington to give parts of the country to other countries

How could a country be considered a sovereign country like this ? Please consider thinking before writing, save us this dumb useless argument

The FMS are free to do as they wish. They don't have to answer to Xamar. This is how it is, and will be.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

The FMS are free to do as they wish. They don't have to answer to Xamar. This is how it is, and will be.

 

[Hilmaam]

fgs using ugandands ethiopians turkish and americans to kill thousands of somalis and bomb villages. When is it good to use foreigners and when is it bad. somalia everyone trying to use outsiders to gain leverage whether it’s funding weapons or influence . It’s what happens when you weak country become play thing for foreigners. Somali just factions fighting for their own short term interests. The ones fighting hardest for united Somali Wayne is also craziest and killing the most Somalis it’s twisted place Somalia is

 

[TheLand]

Aren’t you the same kid who asked for proof of HG massacre in Guriceel? You just started paying attention to Somali politics

 

[Barkhadle1520]

fgs using ugandands ethiopians turkish and americans to kill thousands of somalis and bomb villages.

Uhh what

I dont think they used Ugandans in their offensive in Gedo against JL and Ethiopia

And the whole thread is about SNA fighting Ethiopia

Turkish ? American ? what..

I dont know if youre going off topic or you're referring to the subject being discussed in the thread, this sounds like whataboutism

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Aren’t you the same kid who asked for proof of HG massacre in Guriceel? You just started paying attention to Somali politics

Yeah I wasn't interested at all like a few months ago

 

[Hilmaam]

Uhh what

I dont think they used Ugandans in their offensive in Gedo against JL and Ethiopia

And the whole thread is about SNA fighting Ethiopia

Turkish ? American ? what..

I dont know if youre going off topic or you're referring to the subject being discussed in the thread, this sounds like whataboutism

Hold fgs to same standard nobody uses more foreigners than them

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Hold fgs to same standard nobody uses more foreigners than them

Ok but thats completely off topic idk why youre mentioning this like I disagree

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

 

[Hilmaam]

Ok but thats completely off topic idk why youre mentioning this like I disagree

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

Because u trying to justify HSM attacking regions because madobe in bed with foreigners . It’s not logical when HSM and fgs themselves want to flood jubbaland with their own foreigners more friendly to their interests. Even if it costs thousands of somali lives. It’s fine for fgs to try and reclaim country but HSM not doing it from goodness of his heart or somalinimo he doing it for political reasons and trying to rig elections with parralel admin. His backyard on fire and al shabab offensive stalled and he working to position himself for relection

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Because u trying to justify HSM attacking regions because madobe in bed with foreigners It’s not logical when HSM and fgs themselves want to flood jubbaland with their own foreigners more friendly to their interests.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

It’s fine for fgs to try and reclaim country but HSM not doing it from goodness of his heart or somalinimo he doing it for political reasons and trying to rig elections with parralel admin. His backyard on fire and al shabab offensive stalled and he working to position himself for relection

War whats happening right now isnt reclaiming the country, its a literal invasion, read what I wrote, its not about HSM, FGS regardless of who would be in power HAD to act, Abiy is literally invading Jubaland and Gedo do you understand this, its not about reclaiming Jubaland or else FGS would have started the invasion a year ago when the dispute with Madoobe started or when JL and Ethiopians attacked the first SNA base in december 2024

About the elections its off topic, but I dont deny this is a risk

 

[Midas]

This is what I said back in October but I was attacked for it. For all the corruption and faults of hsm at the end of the day ahmed madobe has to be brought into line. Even farmajo pursued the same policy.