How will Somalia navigate the new political landscape? Allies? Alliances? Diplomacy?

[Zak12]

They are neutral working with all clans unlike Egypt, Qatar and Turkey and Eritrea. Come out Sal balaar boy, we know why abdiqasim salat is in egypt, we know why erdogan is in hamar only yet they convince ppl it's somali benefit. We know Qatar help only hamar also but sold as somali interest. We know why also their all ikhwaans and want a hawiye dominated Somalia.

Only the Saudis are possibly "neutral". UAE and Ethiopia are opposed to all clans except Isaaq

 

[DR OSMAN]

Only the Saudis are possibly "neutral". UAE and Ethiopia are opposed to all clans except Isaaq

UAE is equally involved in hamar, PL, JL, SL their not picking and choosing like eritrea, Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt as we know their loyal to ikhwaan who PL warred with since 90s and therefore they know we will get a rotten deal from there and why hawiyes love them and sell it as a somali interest. I gave u guys your dues tho, u will find many horgals among darods who fall for your crap.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Zak12

Show me one turkey, eritrea, qatar, egypt helping somalis as a whole, u can't their active with Mogadishu only due to abdiqasim.salat pulling strings in Cairo as he told hawiye ikhwaans and their loyalists worldwide back hawiye and samaale clans for Somalia as we saw in Sal balaar Cairo days in 97.

Zak u need to waste your time fooling other darods who are very naive and uninformed your chances are far better there but with me your really wasting your time.

 

[DR OSMAN]

U don't need to worry @Zak12

I am in the minority who are staunchly against ikhwaan and all their political and terrorist.movements globally. Lots of Darods love them.

I am fierce no nonsense son of jabarti, I think before joining any somali gravy train.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

America is not controlled by zionists . The reality is that the Palestinie issue is irrelevant to the American politicans they honestly dont care about for them they have biggest fish to fry like china and russia and doemstic issues. So if the aipac gives them money for their campaigns and only asks them to vote pro israel on the issue they don't even really care about ? They'll obviously say yes


To your point about state building. The reality is that they don't want to be directly involved anymore outside funding and military training. But also You should not mix geopolitics with relegion. Until the u.s collapses which won't happen in the next 20 or 30 years every muslim country will work with them on some level . Even the ones who don't like them. Geopolitics is ruthless and brutal and it doesn't care about people's feelings. Russia and China are not some saviours or allies of Islam. The muslim states will only do things that are in their specific national intrest even if that harms muslim in other countries. If you even knew a tenth of what all these countries got up then you wouldn't bring mroalistix thinking into poltics.

I dont even think you can really need that rlegious and be a politican becuase of all the fucked up things you have to do.

im sorry but I just have to disagree with you here, They dont control it outright by their basically close to it. What do you think of 9/11. Why do you think all candidates have a soundbite of them saying israel is their greatest ally.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

I dont think the u.s will always favor ethiopia over us at all. ( they sanctionee ethiopia rember? Plus if they really liked them that much they would have supported this mou on some level but instead they probably find abiy problematic and annoying) The only thing is that they will never let their relationship be too antagonistic with ethiopia. But considering abiys personality and ego. I don't think he can really maintain a good relationship with America. We have a diaspora that will likley only grow more influential in the coming decades in america. Plus the benefits of us being better allies of America is that we will likley get funding and other support.

I agree, United States their not a very close ally but their not an cadow either like people make it out to be. But im not fully sure on what their end goal for somalia is. ITs all fuzzy, do they just want the status quo to continue?

 

[Idilinaa]

Wow I had no idea the Jubaland invasion was that bad. It almost looks like a 2006 situation all over again.

it's pretty much under occupation by Ethiopia and Kenya. I feel for the locals, its either living under the brutality of Alshabab or being brutalized by foreign occupiers or dealing with the corrupt FGS that also don't deliver.

This a bit separate from the topic of this thread since i made it to evaluate what are alignments should be to secure our future.

But mentioned this another thread how the current situation ripe to insert an alternative:

Even now the illegitimate governments they pose from outside on us and the faux peacekeeping occupiers are taking massive L's to AS , it actually works in our favor at the present moment if Somalis are woken up to take advantage of it, because all AS thrives on is the illegitimacy and non-delivery of the Somali government not because people favor them but because there is no other alternatives , so all you need to do is create an alternative to for people to unite around.

Somalis should step off from viewing things from the lens of qabil, it only matters more to the elites but it really don't matter for the locals who's chief concern is better living standards and improved security, it's why ICU gained traction and wide appeal.
It's why the Kacaan government was largely loved by the local civilian populous.

But SNM, SDF, UNC etc could never attract a lot of supporters outside their narrow base and close familial connections. It's not for the lack of trying.
SNM went to multiple clans and got turned down each time and got also turned down by the Somali uni student unions who was also pro-government but sought to make reforms from within it and not to collapse it.

 

[Zak12]

but it really don't matter for the locals

For locals, qabil only matters in the sense that the government can't provide for them so they rely on their clan who is willing to protect their property, feed them and so on. Its not out of genuine love but for survival. If the government steps up and provides those basic services to Somalis then clannism will die off.

But SNM, SDF, UNC etc

Its amazing how unpopular those groups were. They were around since the 80s and took a decade to finally overthrow Barre and only because America stopped supporting him. Those factions would then devolve into infighting because they had no real vision or coherent ideology beyond destroying Somalia.

 

[Idilinaa]

For locals, qabil only matters in the sense that the government can't provide for them so they rely on their clan who is willing to protect their property, feed them and so on. Its not out of genuine love but for survival. If the government steps up and provides those basic services to Somalis then clannism will die off.

Yes Exactly!!! Think about it further the kacaan government was providing for them, housing, free education, job opportunities, free health care and bunch of other stuff. Mogadishu was the safest city in the world at one point. Why would they turn to clan? Why would the average Somali despise the government?

So i never felt that was a sufficient explanation for what happened.

Its amazing how unpopular those groups were. They were around since the 80s and took a decade to finally overthrow Barre and only because America stopped supporting him. Those factions would then devolve into infighting because they had no real vision or coherent ideology beyond destroying Somalia.

This is from when SNM was trying to form and draw supporters.

Notice he says ''the only thing we wanted now was for the regime to collapse''

Their only proposal was basically ''Come lets destroy Somalia together'' and every one else was like ''No, thank you''

Whilst the regime had an accurate assessment of them

From all that i've read these groups were composed of self serving , corrupt, alcoholic , criminals, anti-muslim christians and lunatics that were disgruntled with being sidelined or punished by the regime.

These types of individuals exist in every society, they are usually jailed, fined , dismmised from their posts or sent to rehab/institution.

What does not happen is that they are invited in by foreign states after being rejected by their society and then empowered , armed and then unleashed back onto that society.

 

[Idilinaa]

Last year 54% of their revenue comes Foreign Grants(basically aid), which was 354million USD

The rest are from Taxes , fees and costums which amount to 292 million and made up 45%. Most domestic revenue comes costums and trade which is basically them taxing the goods leaving and entering the country.

The other is from sales of public goods and services , basically they charge a fee for people using publicly available services this can be a variety of things like transportation, health care, utilities, licensing and permits , education, user fee from infrastructure, land sales, government run enterprises.

Sales, excise taxes which is basically government government taxing the sale/purchase of goods and taxing of products.

I think they make the least from from income, profit and capital gains taxes like 21 million of the total 292 million came from it and i am not sure how they collect this.

They actually don't need the foreign grants, it goes practically nowhere except into their pockets to keep them in place. And they can raise that amount of revenue and more domestically in a very short time but will most likely be held liable to Somalis and not to foreign actors if they did.

@Zak12 Go to 4:57 minute mark of this video and he talks about receiving foreign money

''Under any other Universe President accepts money from foreign government will be immediately disqualifying''



In the Somali case those grants/financing actually become payments directly going into the pockets of politicians.

This is clearly disqualifying thing in most of the developed countries in the world.

Donald Trump political run is going to be a spectacle, he is going to go down as one of the most corrupt US presidents in history when it is said and done.

 

[Idilinaa]

Last year 54% of their revenue comes Foreign Grants(basically aid), which was 354million USD

The rest are from Taxes , fees and costums which amount to 292 million and made up 45%. Most domestic revenue comes costums and trade which is basically them taxing the goods leaving and entering the country.

The other is from sales of public goods and services , basically they charge a fee for people using publicly available services this can be a variety of things like transportation, health care, utilities, licensing and permits , education, user fee from infrastructure, land sales, government run enterprises.

Sales, excise taxes which is basically government government taxing the sale/purchase of goods and taxing of products.

I think they make the least from from income, profit and capital gains taxes like 21 million of the total 292 million came from it and i am not sure how they collect this.

They actually don't need the foreign grants, it goes practically nowhere except into their pockets to keep them in place. And they can raise that amount of revenue and more domestically in a very short time but will most likely be held liable to Somalis and not to foreign actors if they did.



Anyone who is a destabilizing force and doesn't respect Somalis territorial integrity is an enemy.

It's not a judgement on Kenyans as a people, but their government policy direction and their position towards Somalia. They also have a longstanding defense pact with Ethiopia aimed against Somalia.

@Zak12

This is a better break down. What i highlighted above was for the FGS , it looks like Puntland doesn't take any foreign grants or aid based on this graph. It also don't get much domestic grants which is portion of FGS revenue allocated to regional states. It's revenue mostly come from taxing trade and other services.

Now it's not so surprising to me why it's the better functioning state out of the bunch.

Article of it's improved development

Puntland Progress: A Model for Stability and Democracy in Somalia

Garowe, PUNTLAND - Today, the Puntland government concludes its three-day ministerial retreat, aimed at reviewing the progress and challenges of

thesomalidigest.com

It gives more evidence for the fact that foreign aid money makes a government corruption worse and empowers illegitimate political office holders. What it ultimately does is weaken domestic accountability and undermines sovereignty.

This makes Puntland all the more a perfect base candidate for a civic movement to launch out from

What i told you about before:

I think there is 2 path ways i believe Somalis can take to bring about a new direction. First is to lead a civic movement the way Abdi Samatar described it.

Prof. Abdi Ismail Samatar On How To Rebuild a ''Somali Civic Identity''

Prof. Abdi Ismail Samater highlights the unprecedented challenges facing the Somali people, describing the collapse of the state and the disintegration of the nation as a situation not seen in the past 500 years. He notes that external forces are working to ensure Somalia never recovers. Samater...

www.somalispot.com

The second is create a political entity that can act as a political party, an army wing and a think-tank organ to express it's political philosophy and direction.

Puntland/SSC can be used as a base operation and starting point it's the only viable region for this at the moment and then you can expand and push south and north.

Then it is to reach out toe the adversaries of our enemies and ally with them for support. Set up some business and funding networks also.