How To Prevent State Collapse

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
Somalis should have a wealth of knowledge about state collapse and what can lead to it and how to prevent it. Let's study how Ethiopia armed up so many armed groups against siyad barre but they never got the rebel groups to sit down and agree on a post siyad barre Somalia.

What can this mean? it can only mean they were not interested in a post-siyad barre Somalia government and just armed up various groups who had no agreement between themselves on what to do post siyad barre, this is a recipe for state collapse with no recovery intentions.

Let's not repeat this mistake ever again. Before any clan considers toppling a government, let them ask the one seeking state collapse what their post govt model looks like, you will notice most of them have no post govt model.

For example look at these silly tigrayans who said their not seeking any power nor do they have any post abi ahmed models. They are simply repeating Somalia mistakes in 91. Ethiopia will just become an 80 ethnic group warzone. Let's study South Sudan who didn't discuss any post sudan model, look at them savages today killing and displacing each other into refugee camps.

So what can we learn as Somalis from this? We must never ever consider toppling a government that is functioning if you don't have any agreements on what the state will look like after the government is removed or else it will lead to a power struggle among tribes like South Sudan is now and if the tigrayans continue to push into Addis Ababa, even Ethiopia will become similar to 91 Somalia or South Sudan model.

This model of not having agreements signed between rebel groups only leads to factional wars for power and this will lead ppl to prefer the old system which provided stability and not the eventuating chaos that come from toppling governments with no post government agreements in place with opposition groups. May Somalia learn from this and never repeat the same mistakes again of 91.

Abdillahi Yusuf was the only one who could see Ethiopia had no intentions of a Somali state post siyad barre and locked him up so he doesn't encourage the other groups fighting to lay down their arms. USC N SNM continued fighting not knowing what lay ahead because Abdillahi Yusuf knew and was arrested but USC-SNM were never arrested because Ethiopia was laughing at them as they knew it wud lead to nothing but state collapse with no post recovery model even discussed.
 
Mengitsu is different from Zenawi. By the time Zenawi become leader of Ethiopian transitional government Siyad Barre was long gone. While Somalia was spiralling into failed state Zenawi was building a new government so to equate Mengitsu with Zenawi as the same person is rather false.


Zenawi is light years ahead of Mengitsu.
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
@Kanan a post govt model before resistance to an established government must be signed and acknowledged by the opposition or else it will lead to factional or tribal wars for power. What needs to be discussed is the 'interim period' or 'transition' and who will lead the government.

Other important areas of discussion between opposition group need to include the mode of governanace such as federation or unitarian, democracy and election timetables, interim power and revenue sharing untill a one man and one vote system is in place.

These critical talks need to happen among faction groups or opposition or else u get a 91 model Somalia or u get what happened to south sudan who had no state recovery plan post sudan and if u speak to them today(lots live in Australia) the people want to return to the stabilty north sudan provided just like many Somalis prefer the stability of siyad barre.

The reason for this is simple? people prefer stability over chaos and if the opposition group have no plans going forward, it will lead to chaos and instability and eventual state collapse.
 

reer

BANTUWEYNE
VIP
Mengitsu is different from Zenawi. By the time Zenawi become leader of Ethiopian transitional government Siyad Barre was long gone. While Somalia was spiralling into failed state Zenawi was building a new government so to equate Mengitsu with Zenawi as the same person is rather false.


Zenawi is light years ahead of Mengitsu.
zenawi was a scary mofo. knew every major ethnicity's inner workings and had them on strings. he is somalias 4th president.
 
Somali rebels had a pact but it fell apart when the strongest & most dominant one who captured Mogadishu split over.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
Somali rebels had a pact but it fell apart when the strongest & most dominant one who captured Mogadishu split over.
Exactly this. We were unlucky. There was a plan and unfortunately AG and HG were turned against each other. Which resulted in the breakup of our union.
 

reer

BANTUWEYNE
VIP
Exactly this. We were unlucky. There was a plan and unfortunately AG and HG were turned against each other. Which resulted in the breakup of our union.
hawiye lacked principles. when they didnt execute siad barres former 2nd deputy prime minister abdiqasim for hawiyenimo and absorbed siad barres last prime minister for irirnimo.
 
hawiye lacked principles. when they didnt execute siad barres former 2nd deputy prime minister abdiqasim for hawiyenimo and absorbed siad barres last prime minister for irirnimo.

Abdi Qassim Salad? Carte Ghalib was a jailed foreign minister he was released from prison when USC entered Mogadishu to form a gov on behalf of Siad Barre, it was his last ditch effort to reach a compromise with USC but it didn't work out. Mahdi appointed him as PM in an attempt to sway Isaaq back but he unintentionally provoked the Somaliland project when he declared presidency. Aidiid didn't have enough man power to overthrow Mahdi.
 

reer

BANTUWEYNE
VIP
Abdi Qassim Salad? Carte Ghalib was a jailed foreign minister he was released from prison when USC entered Mogadishu to form a gov on behalf of Siad Barre, it was his last ditch effort to reach a compromise with USC but it didn't work out. Mahdi appointed him as PM in an attempt to sway Isaaq back but he unintentionally provoked the Somaliland project when he declared presidency. Aidiid didn't have enough man power to overthrow Mahdi.
yes abdiqasim.
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