How fast can we stop relying on Food aid?

[Idilinaa]

Western-Somaliland has a massive intensively cultivated landmass and extending into Fafan zone.
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Togdheer, Sanaag, Sool, Bari, Western Mudug and Western Galgaduud I don't know how they could grow their food. I suspect these regions import most of their grain. Here there aren't enough regions with cultivated land numbering in the thousands of hectares. Doubt the annual caloric intake of their respective populations. But in all of those regions there are good roads and trade is active.

GM has most of its Eastern region engaging in low level grain production were surplus is sold to pastoralist or towns.
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Here water is the biggest constraint also the soil types ranges from useless dunes, to poor and excellent soil.

I’ve previously covered how Galmudug has transitioned toward self-sufficiency in food production. While they used to import from Hiraan or Shabelle, they now largely supply their own grains and produce locally:

Galmudug’s Farms and Progress towards self sufficiency

Galmudug markets rarely ever import food from hiiran and both Shabelle regions anymore. Local farms in Galmudug for the past few years with the support of Galmudug’s ministry of agriculture and projects sponsored by donors/World bank,etc, managed to grow all sorts of crop ranging from onions...

www.somalispot.com

Sanaag and Sool are also seeing an agricultural resurgence. Farmers there are growing more local produce


and they also cultivate extensively coffee and olives in the cal madow mountains now. So in an interesting twist coffee cultivation is making a comeback. But they are asking for better road infrastructure to deliver them to the city and town markets.

Coffee grows in Calmadow chain, Laasqoray District

The temperature is suitable for growing all sorts of things from Coffee to Qaat the community is a GDP maker in the making we must connect the mountains to the mainland. Deegaanka Mirci

www.somalispot.com

Somali coffee farmers vexed by poor roads and transport in mountain areas of Sanag

(ERGO) - Rough terrain and impassable roads are reducing profits for small scale Somali coffee farmers in Sanag region. The

radioergo.org

Puntland and Bari in particular they now produce most of their own crops locally when they used to import them from the south according to the agricultural minister

Puntland’s Agriculture Sector: Transitory Observations, Analysis - Puntland Mirror Believable Media Website

Historically, agriculture is not something Somalia’s state of Puntland is famed for nor associated with. Among Somalis, these are lands known as the country’s barren lands; its desert. There might be a grain of truth in that, as when compared to some of the country’s riverine Southern provinces...

puntlandmirror.net

rvations-analysis/

Aside from Bari farms, the extensive farm area he mentioned at the end on the outskirts of Garow is located near the southern river bed.

BEERAHA JIBIGALE | GAROOWE | PUNTLAND | SOOMAALIYA

BEERAHA JIBIGALE | GAROOWE | PUNTLAND | SOOMAALIYA

daljir.com

I am glad they actually dispelled a lot of inaccuracies about Northeastern regions geography. I tried to the same in that agricultural land area thread

The big picture is this. Most Somali regions now produce the majority of their food locally, and markets across the country from Bosaso to Dhuusamareeb, are full of local food.

There’s no real shortage in most areas. I remember @Shimbiris mentioned when he visited Bosaso, locals told him it’s rare for anyone in Puntland to go hungry.

 

[Idilinaa]

You are missing the point. USAID subsidizes American(and Ukrainian?) farmers and with hundreds of millions by purchasing grain from them. This organization then needs to find markets to dump this food aid otherwise the subsidies will end. (Motive)

They use ''Food insecure'' countries like Somalia as a subsidized market. And it is no coincidence that they send the food aid during the peak harvest seasons. Thoroughly disrupting local markets. There has been a call to move on to direct cash transfers for a reason. (Means)

We should demand direct cash transfers as the only form of aid but only short term.

These developments alone might only be alarming on their own. But when you clock the fact that UN agencies like FSNAU(under FAO) grossly underestimate and outright fabricate the total grain production in Somalia(Creating demand). Imagine that FSNAU claims in 2024 Middle Shabelle with a total cultivated landmass way above million hectares only produced maize enough to feed little more than 100,000 ppl (Around 24,750 tons of maize). FSNAU

While on average subsistence farming tends to produce 2-4 tons of Maize per hectare.
View attachment 363724
Remember that Middle Shabelle is a region that has 300,000 hectares of cambisol soil, engaging in Maize production. Middle Shabelle with a major river, deep wells, regular rains, warm climate, long growing period and the ideal soil type for Maize production. Even if only third of those numbers are achieved it makes absolutely no sense that only less than 25,000 tons were produced.

At this point to me it's more than apparent that there is something far more sinister than simple mistake at play. Also the fact WFP is never clear about how many tons of grain Somalia receives annually is unbelievable. We can't know for sure how many tons are being dumped into the country let alone how much of it ends circulating in the free market.

I mean, this is beyond nefarious activity and closely resembles an integrated covert action programs certain intelligence agencies are known for.

Yeah i have spoken about USAID and the obstacles other humanitarian orgs create:

She spoke nothing but stone cold facts. What they do in Somalia is the same thing they do across Africa they target the most remote, desolate rural communities or displaced people, but instead of actually providing real solutions, they cripple people’s ability to provide for themselves and make them dependent.


Rather than strengthening domestic markets, production, and initiatives, they block local supply chains that would allow communities to help themselves. Cross-communal trade pathways, which could integrate economies and create self-sufficiency are deliberately undermined.


Take seeds, for example. The ones they provide are not adapted to African soil, often ruining local agriculture instead of helping it. Africans historically supplied their own seeds, carefully preserved from one season to the next, ensuring better yields. Now, reliance on foreign-provided, faulty seeds creates long-term dependency.


And at the end of it all, some NGOs exploit these misfortunes by creating poverty p/corn with a p, taking pictures of displaced families in makeshift tents just to raise money for themselves. They’re the first on the scene, not to help, but to snap a photo, slap a "Please Donate" caption on it, and plaster it on billboards for their own benefit.


Yet, when I look at the billions of dollars being funneled into domestic and diaspora-driven Somali investment, it becomes clear that organizations like USAID contribute almost nothing in comparison. They are not filling major gaps at all, it’s all a lie. Most of Somalia is already self-reliant.


This reminds me of the Somali diaspora experience. In Europe, systemic employment barriers push Somalis out of the workforce, forcing them into welfare dependency. Meanwhile, in the U.S. and other countries with fewer employment restrictions, Somalis thrive in self-employment, showing high employment rates and self-sufficiency. When people are given the space to support themselves, they do.

She also pointed out that African leaders are celebrating the downfall of USAID , we’ve seen this firsthand with Somali parliament leaders openly rejoicing.
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And honestly? They’re right.


The Somali government doesn’t need that tiny "aid" money at all. They can recover the same funds through local investment and reinvest it into actual services. Somalis don’t need world agencies to “fill gaps” because Somalis can fully provide for each other.

Somalis already provide everything for one another from education, water, infrastructure, electricity, banking, food, employment, housing and rely on private sector and community ventures/services/financing.

All they do with that foreign funding is empower illegitimate political stakeholders.

And i also mentioned this a bit here according to an article i read by SATG.

Outside of the roughly 3 million IDPs displaced by floods and climate-related disasters in the south , who are understandably more vulnerable to food insecurity , most Somalis have stable access to food. There's no widespread shortage or crisis. The average Somali, especially those outside affected zones, lives a normal life in that regard.

If you look up the Somali Agriculture Technical Group (SATG), they’ve published scathing critiques of how humanitarian organizations actively block Somali-led efforts to reintegrate IDPs into productive livelihoods. These efforts include long-standing seasonal mechanisms, local supply chains, and communal support systems. Instead, these groups act as gatekeepers, undermining local initiatives and then turning around to release misleading statistics and generalized metrics.

This is especially deceptive because most of Somalia is self-reliant and thriving across multiple sectors. So these narratives aren’t just inaccurate , they completely ignore the on-the-ground reality.

 

[Afrax]

I’ve previously covered how Galmudug has transitioned toward self-sufficiency in food production. While they used to import from Hiraan or Shabelle, they now largely supply their own grains and produce locally:

Galmudug’s Farms and Progress towards self sufficiency

Galmudug markets rarely ever import food from hiiran and both Shabelle regions anymore. Local farms in Galmudug for the past few years with the support of Galmudug’s ministry of agriculture and projects sponsored by donors/World bank,etc, managed to grow all sorts of crop ranging from onions...

www.somalispot.com

Sanaag and Sool are also seeing an agricultural resurgence. Farmers there are growing more local produce


and they also cultivate extensively coffee and olives in the cal madow mountains now. So in an interesting twist coffee cultivation is making a comeback. But they are asking for better road infrastructure to deliver them to the city and town markets.

Coffee grows in Calmadow chain, Laasqoray District

The temperature is suitable for growing all sorts of things from Coffee to Qaat the community is a GDP maker in the making we must connect the mountains to the mainland. Deegaanka Mirci

www.somalispot.com

Somali coffee farmers vexed by poor roads and transport in mountain areas of Sanag

(ERGO) - Rough terrain and impassable roads are reducing profits for small scale Somali coffee farmers in Sanag region. The

radioergo.org

Puntland and Bari in particular they now produce most of their own crops locally when they used to import them from the south according to the agricultural minister

Puntland’s Agriculture Sector: Transitory Observations, Analysis - Puntland Mirror Believable Media Website

Historically, agriculture is not something Somalia’s state of Puntland is famed for nor associated with. Among Somalis, these are lands known as the country’s barren lands; its desert. There might be a grain of truth in that, as when compared to some of the country’s riverine Southern provinces...

puntlandmirror.net

rvations-analysis/
View attachment 363733
View attachment 363734

Aside from Bari farms, the extensive farm area he mentioned at the end on the outskirts of Garow is located near the southern river bed.
View attachment 363736

BEERAHA JIBIGALE | GAROOWE | PUNTLAND | SOOMAALIYA

BEERAHA JIBIGALE | GAROOWE | PUNTLAND | SOOMAALIYA

daljir.com

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I am glad they actually dispelled a lot of inaccuracies about Northeastern regions geography. I tried to the same in that agricultural land area thread
View attachment 363731
View attachment 363732

The big picture is this. Most Somali regions now produce the majority of their food locally, and markets across the country from Bosaso to Dhuusamareeb, are full of local food.

There’s no real shortage in most areas. I remember @Shimbiris mentioned when he visited Bosaso, locals told him it’s rare for anyone in Puntland to go hungry.

It's has to be one of these things or combination of them.
People in the mentioned regions either

1. Meet most of their caloric requirement through non vegetarian sources(meat?)
2. Have massive indoor vertical farms
3. The population in said regions is very low
4. They have other ways of accessing grain (Food aid?)

The cultivated land in those regions, although expanding rapidly is not big enough to meet the daily required caloric intake of the reported populations in those regions. Which is why I suspect that most of the grain is not locally produced.

 

[Idilinaa]

It's has to be one of these things or combination of them.
People in the mentioned regions either

1. Meet most of their caloric requirement through non vegetarian sources(meat?)
2. Have massive indoor vertical farms
3. The population in said regions is very low
4. They have other ways of accessing grain (Food aid?)

The cultivated land in those regions, although expanding rapidly is far too low to meet the daily required caloric intake of the reported populations in those regions.

They grow food for local consumption and they import food from the southern part of the country, across the country, as well as as abroad not necessarily aid but through purchasing. What they have done is many areas is recreate what's grown in the south locally rice, beans, maize, sorghum. They have access to various grains, vegetables, fruits, poutry, eggs , meat , dairy etc. The farms are variable .

Their farms are not intended to grow them at large commercial scale like in the south.

Notes from Global Food security cluster
"Reports indicate that overrall food security conditions in Puntland are normal, with most households able to meet their basic food needs"

This is pretty much reflective of most of Somalia's market across all states are-stocked with food of every type and its available.

From the Joint Markets and Supply Chain Update | 16 – 30 April 2025

Somalia - WFP Fortnight Joint Markets and Supply Chain Update | 16 – 30 April 2025 - Somalia

Situation Report in English on Somalia about Food and Nutrition, Logistics and Telecommunications, Drought and Flash Flood; published on 6 May 2025 by WFP

reliefweb.int

 

[Idilinaa]

They grow food for local consumption and they import food from the southern part of the country, across the country, as well as as abroad not necessarily aid but through purchasing. What they have done is many areas is recreate what's grown in the south locally rice, beans, maize, sorghum. They have access to various grains, vegetables, fruits, poutry, eggs , meat , dairy etc. The farms are variable .

Their farms are not intended to grow them at large commercial scale like in the south.

Notes from Global Food security cluster
"Reports indicate that overrall food security conditions in Puntland are normal, with most households able to meet their basic food needs"
View attachment 363755

View attachment 363756
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View attachment 363758

This is pretty much reflective of most of Somalia's market across all states are-stocked with food of every type and its available.

From the Joint Markets and Supply Chain Update | 16 – 30 April 2025

file:///C:/Users/A727C~1.RAH/AppData/Local/Temp/WFP%20Somalia%20Joint%20Markets%20and%20Supply%20Chain%20Update__02052025.pdf

@Barkhadle1520 @Som @novanova @Midas @Shimbiris @Aseer Looking at this now, it actually reinforces the idea that prices remain relatively stable and similar across the country. Despite the presence of federal member states and Somaliland's self-declared independence, Somalia functions in many ways as a single, integrated economy.

It also reflects that people across regions are largely able to afford and access variety of goods available in local markets , so it supports what we have been saying about the broader level of purchasing power is more than is often assumed and supply & demand that comes with it.

Compare Somalia’s performance to the Ethiopian report below , the difference is stark:

Holy cow. Their market economy is basically all fried.

Ethiopia Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) Market Overview: 05 - 14 August, 2024 - Ethiopia

Assessment in English on Ethiopia about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and more; published on 12 Sep 2024 by REACH

reliefweb.int

Ethiopia’s market economy is visibly struggling, market fragmentation, disrupted supply chains, and uneven price access are clear signs that the system isn't functioning properly.

In contrast, Somalia shows strong internal trade dynamics. Food, goods, and people move seamlessly across regions. Markets are fully stocked, supply chains are active, and most people are able to access goods at relatively stable prices.

 

[Afrax]

We are not inventing anything new. This is how every nation grows its agricultural sector through some form of protectionism and subsidies for farmers. By simply irrigating properly, we could convert hundreds of thousands of hectares of currently unviable land into productive farmland and make the currently tilled land more productive. What you will need is investment, roads, and the processing and storage facilities to turn wheat, sorghum, and barley into flour, pasta, and bread.

We need vocational schools to teach our farmers. They should be given tractors and equipment, and we must establish our own production lines for special bread seeds that thrive in our natural environment. Even more important is that farmers will need access to markets and proper roads that lead to major cities and capitals. We should sell to ourselves first and then think about exporting any surplus.

It might sound corny, but spending some time playing a farming simulator can help. The games are not very expensive and they show how complex farming is and how crucial it is to manage capital inflow and investment properly.

Ideally, you would subsidize grain production to the level of self-sufficiency. Somalia could never be competitive against most nations when it comes to staple grains, which isn’t our goal. Our goal is to grow them for ourselves and to feed ourselves, not export them.

The rest of the agricultural land should be used to grow what makes the most sense. Think of coffee, for example. The price of coffee is rising steadily as harvests are failing in the historical coffee-growing countries. the entirety of Somalia falls in the Coffee belt.

A Somali-owned company, or a group of companies, that controls the entire value chain, from cultivation to roasting and packaging the beans, could generate billions in revenue just in tax for the nation. This is a better path than what we currently see in other African countries, where farmers sell to American and European companies and end up trapped in cycles of debt and exclusivity contracts with them.

Coffee is a very labor-intensive and uncertain commodity to trade. There appears to be a 3–4 year cycle in prices. The key to entering this market is to plant when prices are low, allowing you to position yourself to take advantage of the eventual price increase that follows a drop in supply caused by the earlier low prices.

Significant revenue can definitely be generated if the entire value chain is consolidated under three or fewer local companies.

However, outside of the Sanaag, Harar, Libin, and Erer zones, I don't believe Somalis have the necessary altitude and climate to mass-produce the valuable Arabica variety. The rest of Somalia can only produce the excessively bitter and less valuable Robusta variety.

Here’s an informative video from a few years ago on coffee as a traded commodity.

I also think it would be favorable to enter the date commodity market, especially along the coastal plain known as Deex, stretching from Xafun to Xamar. With minimal irrigation and nutrients, the climate and soil types in this region closely resemble those of native palm environments.

Sandy Loam soil (ideal) and Arenosol soil type are mostly found here. These soils have good drainage and the regions long hot dry season for fruit ripening and sugar concentration is ideal.

Negative is it takes about 7 to 10 years for the trees to reach full production capacity. Positives are the fact that the trees produce fruits for 40 to 70 years. And in four years the whole coast could support agroforestry system.

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[Idilinaa]

We are not inventing anything new. This is how every nation grows its agricultural sector through some form of protectionism and subsidies for farmers. By simply irrigating properly, we could convert hundreds of thousands of hectares of currently unviable land into productive farmland and make the currently tilled land more productive. What you will need is investment, roads, and the processing and storage facilities to turn wheat, sorghum, and barley into flour, pasta, and bread.

We need vocational schools to teach our farmers. They should be given tractors and equipment, and we must establish our own production lines for special bread seeds that thrive in our natural environment. Even more important is that farmers will need access to markets and proper roads that lead to major cities and capitals. We should sell to ourselves first and then think about exporting any surplus.

It might sound corny, but spending some time playing a farming simulator can help. The games are not very expensive and they show how complex farming is and how crucial it is to manage capital inflow and investment properly.

Ideally, you would subsidize grain production to the level of self-sufficiency. Somalia could never be competitive against most nations when it comes to staple grains, which isn’t our goal. Our goal is to grow them for ourselves and to feed ourselves, not export them.

The rest of the agricultural land should be used to grow what makes the most sense. Think of coffee, for example. The price of coffee is rising steadily as harvests are failing in the historical coffee-growing countries. the entirety of Somalia falls in the Coffee belt.

A Somali-owned company, or a group of companies, that controls the entire value chain, from cultivation to roasting and packaging the beans, could generate billions in revenue just in tax for the nation. This is a better path than what we currently see in other African countries, where farmers sell to American and European companies and end up trapped in cycles of debt and exclusivity contracts with them.

You raise a strong, well thought out vision and you're absolutely right, no country has developed its agricultural sector without some degree of strategic protectionism, infrastructure investment, and support for its farmers. What you’ve described aligns closely with the classic pathway many countries took to reach self-sufficiency.

That said, after digging more into the current state of Somali agriculture, I realized I may have initially overstated the need for heavy subsidies, mainly because farmers are already showing strong signs of self-sufficiency, market prices remain pretty stable, affordable and farmers earn enough income to support themselves without government intervention. (as I covered in my previous post)

We can make recommendations but we need to not overlook the leap of progress done in the last 8-9 years.

There are cooperatives and agribusiness incubation centers that provide technical training, education, they also provide tractors, equipment etc

I think now it's grown to more than 500 farming cooperatives across the country.

Somalis have set up agricultural research centers across country, closely linked to universities. They invented high yield climate resistant seed crops, which has directly led to growth in production.

Apparently they built on the agricultural research from the Kacaan period where they made first made breakthroughs.


The whole supply chain is controlled by Somali businesses and enterprises.

There are companies that supply machinery and equipment

There are domestic Somali group of companies that invest in production, processing, packaging and direct the supply chain:

The first one is one of the conglomerates that i mentioned in a separate thread:

Also regions like Puntland, Galmudug, and parts of the South have seen new roadworks and warehousing projects linked to agriculture.

 

[Kamaaludeen Al Reewin]

It’s important to put things into perspective. Regions like Puntland, Somaliland, and even Galmudug produce a significant portion of their food locally, and their markets remain well-supplied. While large-scale commercial agriculture is mainly concentrated in the South, food production exists across the country.

The displacement of millions wasn’t primarily due to systemic instability or the presence of NGOs, it was largely the result of climate shocks, particularly severe flooding, which wiped out homes, farms, livestock, and local infrastructure. These were functioning agro-pastoral communities before the disaster.

As for NGOs, their role is more nuanced than it’s often portrayed. Many of them procure food locally, they buy in bulk from Somali farmers and traders to redistribute to those in need. In fact, Somali-owned companies and business leaders also fund these NGOs and foundations, seeing them as part of the broader recovery and stabilization process.

Of course, the influx of free food into markets can cause distortions if not managed properly, but the alternative, abandoning vulnerable populations, would be far more damaging in the short term. Farmers don’t grow food to give it away, someone needs to purchase it, whether that’s NGOs, institutions, or consumers. Aid and market systems can and often do coexist when planned effectively.

There’s no simple or instant fix to the IDP situation because of the sheer scale of the losses. What’s needed is long-term investment in recovery, infrastructure, housing, and local economies. That’s already starting to happen in parts of the country.

Focusing only on IDP camps to define Somalia overlooks the bigger picture. Strengthening the national economy, supporting local producers, and creating sustainable systems is how we move toward real self-sufficiency, not just by eliminating NGOs.

You are right about food production being possible all over Somalia wether north south east or central Somalia. But you are wrong about IDPs not being displaced because of instability. It 100% goes back to the instability in the nation.

The reason is because back in the macaan days these floods, famines and natural disasters existed back then too. But the differences were that there were systems in place to help the rural people without having them relocate. Aid could be taken to their villages, that's why there were no IDPs. Apart from maybe abaarti dhabadheer where there was mass migration, the rest of the time there was no such thing as "idp camps" the way there is today.

There was no AS blocking roads and villages, or taxing farmers and geeljires extortionately, and most farmers usually had enough crops to last them years. But today AS + the lack of government has been a massive contributed to the IDP crisis we can't blame floods and the likes

 

[Idilinaa]

You are right about food production being possible all over Somalia wether north south east or central Somalia. But you are wrong about IDPs not being displaced because of instability. It 100% goes back to the instability in the nation.

The reason is because back in the macaan days these floods, famines and natural disasters existed back then too. But the differences were that there were systems in place to help the rural people without having them relocate. Aid could be taken to their villages, that's why there were no IDPs. Apart from maybe abaarti dhabadheer where there was mass migration, the rest of the time there was no such thing as "idp camps" the way there is today.

There was no AS blocking roads and villages, or taxing farmers and geeljires extortionately, and most farmers usually had enough crops to last them years. But today AS + the lack of government has been a massive contributed to the IDP crisis we can't blame floods and the likes

3 million IDPs were displaced by floods , that’s not about “instability.” They lost all their farmland, livestock, homes, and even vehicles. Their entire livelihoods were wiped out.

''The 2023 Deyr floods caused 176 million in losses and damaged across sixteen districts. The floods resulted in 188 fatalities and displaced over 2 mllion people''

''According to the report, direct damages to agriculture, water and sanitation, education and other key sectors surpassed 126 million , while losses amounted to 49.5 million. The agriculture and livestock sector, requires the highest recovery investments, followed by Transport and Housing."

We need to distinguish between regular seasonal floods (which people can recover from) and this , a once-in-a-century event. This wasn’t a normal disruption

I even compared it to the Yellow River flood in early 20th century China a once-in-1,000-years climate disaster.

Also, the headlines often mislead people by lumping drought and flood displacement together. Drought exacerbates issues but isn’t the main driver , floods cause immediate displacement because there’s no time to prepare.

''Flood events lead to immediate displacement with little response time"

''A review of the displacement patterns during the entire period shows that a district impacted by a severe drought does not always see a high level of displacement"

The IDP crisis isn’t caused by food shortage, economic failure, or instability. It’s caused by catastrophic, sudden climate shocks. And when people lose everything , land, tools, animals even if food is available on the market, they can’t afford it. That’s why aid is needed.

As for the idea that Al-Shabaab blocking roads is what’s making things worse. I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, but it’s not a primary driver. If you look at WFP’s latest market and supply chain updates:

Somalia - WFP Fortnight Joint Markets and Supply Chain Update | 16 – 30 April 2025 - Somalia

Situation Report in English on Somalia about Food and Nutrition, Logistics and Telecommunications, Drought and Flash Flood; published on 6 May 2025 by WFP

reliefweb.int

Southern Somalia’s markets function well, are fully stocked, and face minimal logistics issues. That region even exports produce northwards. So if AS is causing disruptions, it may be more localized , not a systemic collapse.

To put it simply. IDPs don’t exist because of instability , they exist because a one-in-a-century flood event destroyed their ability to live and work. That’s not something political stability alone could have prevented.