How fast can we stop relying on Food aid?

[Afrax]

I just realized there is 400,000 Hectares of intensively cultivated land in Lower Shabelle. It's Vertisol. If I remember correctly it is good soil for agriculture. @Hilmaam how much food could this region yield annually? Any idea what crops are best suited for it?

And Similar landmass is cultivated in Middle Shabelle 300,00 hectares. But here the soil is Cambisol(purple) and is even more intensively cultivated.

The green is around 100,000 ha and is Vertisol and essentially an extension of LS cultivated landmass.


@Idilinaa , @Hilmaam These are regions outside the river bed so they don't get reliable irrigation but both receive regular rains and have extensive network of wells and seasonal rivers. What investments are needed to scale up and how many people's annual caloric intake could these regions meet?

Anyone who knows more about agriculture should get tagged.

 

[Afrax]

Length of Growing period(LGP) seems to be either good or excellent in both regions.

Janaale seems to have longest growth period, essentially year around. Multiple harvests a year.

 

[El Nino]

Length of Growing period(LGP) seems to be either good or excellent in both regions.
View attachment 363590

Janaale seems to have longest growth period, essentially year around. Multiple harvests a year.

Huge amount of land in Janaale and sh/hoose is occupied by water intensive crops like banana, mangoes and other fruits such as guava.

In order to achieve food security, proper large scale cultivation of native crops of sorghum and millet must be prioritised. They are less water intensive then crops mentioned above.

Some fruits can stay but only after achieving food security.

 

[therandomone]

Food aid is free. You can't compete with that. If the government was good they would start slowing down the aid and investing in agriculture

 

[Afrax]

Huge amount of land in Janaale and sh/hoose is occupied by water intensive crops like banana, mangoes and other fruits such as guava.

In order to achieve food security, proper large scale cultivation of native crops of sorghum and millet must be prioritised. They are less water intensive then crops mentioned above.

Some fruits can stay but only after achieving food security.

That is why I'm focused at those two regions outside the inter-riverine system. The cultivated land using rain water is larger than all of the land using irrigation. It is in my opinion under utilized, both of those regions only cultivate local crops and cassava(Moxog)+maize(Galley.). Right now they only engage in low level subsistence farming, but that could change.

I want to be free of bias. Could right investment and better roads turn these regions into breadbasket? If so what are the numbers we are looking at, e.g. how many people could be fed? Because the numbers I'm currently sitting on are ridiculously high.

Is it possible that we wouldn't need to tap into the river water irrigated Farmland for food production? Those regions could solely focus on cash crops.

• Better roads so the regions villages reach critical mass faster and more people move into them.
  • Farm sizes would grow--> Bigger yields
  • Growing profits would mean bigger reinvestments could be done
  • Better equipment-->Even larger yields.
• Smart investments into rain catchment facilities and industrial factories producing agricultural goods
  • This would add value into the agricultural sector.
  • Thousands if not hundreds of them could be created within a decade.

This is how East Asian countries kickstarted their industrialization. Their desire for food security resulted in a domino effect. For a long time(thanks to those UN agencies) I thought we didn't have enough arable land but that's clearly not the case.

 

[Afrax]

Huge amount of land in Janaale and sh/hoose is occupied by water intensive crops like banana, mangoes and other fruits such as guava.

In order to achieve food security, proper large scale cultivation of native crops of sorghum and millet must be prioritised. They are less water intensive then crops mentioned above.

Some fruits can stay but only after achieving food security.

Found out there is even more of cultivated land engaging in low level grain production.

This one is centered West of Baidoa and Northeast of Baardheere. 270,000 ha.

And This one is centered around Buurhakaba another 290,000 ha of cultivated landmass. Ileen this land made Eelay such a laandheere clan.

Also there is more cultivated land engaging in grain production but the soil here is less productive and there are large livestock populations. People here practice Agropastoralism (xoolodhaqato)
But the landmass is massive around 800,000 ha.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I just realized there is 400,000 Hectares of intensively cultivated land in Lower Shabelle. It's Vertisol. If I remember correctly it is good soil for agriculture. @Hilmaam how much food could this region yield annually? Any idea what crops are best suited for it?
View attachment 363582

And Similar landmass is cultivated in Middle Shabelle 300,00 hectares. But here the soil is Cambisol(purple) and is even more intensively cultivated.
View attachment 363585
The green is around 100,000 ha and is Vertisol and essentially an extension of LS cultivated landmass.


@Idilinaa , @Hilmaam These are regions outside the river bed so they don't get reliable irrigation but both receive regular rains and have extensive network of wells and seasonal rivers. What investments are needed to scale up and how many people's annual caloric intake could these regions meet?

Anyone who knows more about agriculture should get tagged.

PL is aiming to not only be self sufficient but export excess inside Somalia and regionally. The agricultural policy is seeing gains already with many abgaals saying 'arey eebow dhulki dhagaxyada ayaa beerahooda soo gaaro afgoye suuqisa oo webi teedsan yahay, While the local puntite is giggling and smirking beerahi aad ku faani jirteen waxaa ka fican PL beerahooda. Somalis do say Majerten ma haro wa hormuudki somaliyeed.

The moral of the story abti is, it don't matter if you have a continent size of green land what matters is the ppl and how they use it and their human capital and their leadership. PL is proving even tho it's not agriculturally favorable but with the little arable land it has, it's already using it well and competing with lands blessed naturally with it.

This further supports the idea dad tayo leh wuxu Dhaama dhul tayo leh oo dadkisu iska yihin maskax ambuulo ah. Pound for Pound, per capita MJ is punching way above its weight in agriculture as it's a miracle a desert is feeding reer afgoye when it should be the other way around. PL is even competing with southern farmer while in a desert.

PL prides itself as being unblessed naturally but blessed in its people will and resilience and human capital in comparison to other Somalis.

Yaab banana sultanate region vs a non sultanate areas in Somalia do have alot of marked differences whether we accept it or conceal it, some r just natural born leaders while others are being taught it Like a child(SL thru Britain, hamar thru italy) war anagu we were always a recognized dawlad.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Afrax

Even in Moryanism MJ will still out beat any clan bro, this is a human thing of ability dee, as I did help my abtiyaal in Murusade clean out some zako terror money and into local n foreign ventures and assisted thru the legal process, they been eating since 2014 and balling when I gave em the strategy and now remain low key like MJ naturally do.

Moryanimo nagama badin kartid either. If MJ gave bayah to Ikhwaani factions locally n abroad and added its talent to the let's send each state into disorder over time using Egyptian thinker seed qutb strategy, the world as we know it today would be in big trouble as we could do by merging it with our own custom historical tactics that are oral and concealed thru sultanate era to see the global powers all turn out to be sitting ducks like Rome was for the Germanic tribes or Genghis was for China.

The thing missing in Ikhwaan is the actual brains and how to test their strategy ends in outcome the enemy is smiling and has no clue which we know how to do very well(brutal snakes baan nahay).

 

[Sol]

Government subsidies

 

[iamcremo]

Somalia has all the resources it needs to become a super power but it lacks wise people who govern the country. Hence why the foreigners label "us" aqli 68. Besides that the federal structure is a blessing not a curse let each state handle its gobol and report it to Villa Somalia without disrespecting the sovereignty of Federal Republic Government of Somalia.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalia has all the resources it needs to become a super power but it lacks wise people who govern the country. Hence why the foreigners label "us" aqli 68. Besides that the federal structure is a blessing not a curse let each state handle its gobol and report it to Villa Somalia without disrespecting the sovereignty of Federal Republic Government of Somalia.

68 IQ is real bro its just Somalis ma ogga meesha laga cunayo as they rush to conclusions about racism(usually indicator of itself a low iq).

The 68 IQ is linked to financial power of each nation. Somalia productivity value GDP wise is 500 dollar per person vs someone in the west it's around the 60k per person, this indicates to investing class u get much more profitability from a western citizen then an Somali or African. But what GDP fails to account for is the suuq madow and informal market.

If I were u if u want to be successful disengage contact with Somalis, their arguments r predictable like xoolo n livestock as it's linked to identity politics or whatever form it takes(faith, clan, genders,.nation, race). I cringe when I see them and totally avoid all contact around other communities(war wuxu waa xoolo dee) and u can't tell if his some.fob, single mom kid, etc..I do believe in class politics as I am.from an ex diplomat family so had a relative better start in the west.

 

[Idilinaa]

There is enough food produced inside the country to feed everybody, and similarly with food imports. The problem isn’t a lack of food, it’s that food isn’t free, and that’s why those who are displaced or have lost their livelihoods in the short term require aid.

When you see numbers online or in reports about “millions needing food aid,” this crucial context is often left out. These figures usually refer to displaced communities or people facing temporary economic shocks. Most food insecurity in Somalia is due to economic displacement, not famine or actual shortages. So food isn’t the problem; purchasing power is.

As for the riverine zones you’ve mentioned, investment and planned projects have already been allocated to these areas, some completed and some are currently underway by both the government and regional states.

See this graph:

Separate from this, when it comes to agricultural production driven by locals and private investors, things are moving forward rapidly through key developments, micro-irrigation and drip systems, solar-powered pumps, and micro-financing.

A growing number of micro-irrigation tech companies and micro-financing institutions (MFIs) are popping up across the country. This is proving to be an incredibly intelligent and cost-effective method to expand production into new areas. It's also an adaptive solution to climate variability.

To answer your question more directly. if Somalia aims to reduce food imports and grow demand for local produce, then the government needs to subsidize farmers and adopt an import-substitution strategy, particularly for staples like wheat and rice. That also means introducing tariffs or other forms of protection on cheap foreign products.

This is what has largely been done in Ogaden, where they managed to boost incomes and reduce prices in the process. Hopefully, Somalia will continue to follow through with the planned projects shown in the graph, especially the import-substitution aspect focused on wheat and rice, agro-processing, as well as critical infrastructure like highways and roads. I’m not entirely sure how much of an obstacle Al-Shabaab poses to these plans, but the direction is clearly laid out.

 

[JamalFarah]

We are not inventing anything new. This is how every nation grows its agricultural sector through some form of protectionism and subsidies for farmers. By simply irrigating properly, we could convert hundreds of thousands of hectares of currently unviable land into productive farmland and make the currently tilled land more productive. What you will need is investment, roads, and the processing and storage facilities to turn wheat, sorghum, and barley into flour, pasta, and bread.

We need vocational schools to teach our farmers. They should be given tractors and equipment, and we must establish our own production lines for special bread seeds that thrive in our natural environment. Even more important is that farmers will need access to markets and proper roads that lead to major cities and capitals. We should sell to ourselves first and then think about exporting any surplus.

It might sound corny, but spending some time playing a farming simulator can help. The games are not very expensive and they show how complex farming is and how crucial it is to manage capital inflow and investment properly.

Ideally, you would subsidize grain production to the level of self-sufficiency. Somalia could never be competitive against most nations when it comes to staple grains, which isn’t our goal. Our goal is to grow them for ourselves and to feed ourselves, not export them.

The rest of the agricultural land should be used to grow what makes the most sense. Think of coffee, for example. The price of coffee is rising steadily as harvests are failing in the historical coffee-growing countries. the entirety of Somalia falls in the Coffee belt.

A Somali-owned company, or a group of companies, that controls the entire value chain, from cultivation to roasting and packaging the beans, could generate billions in revenue just in tax for the nation. This is a better path than what we currently see in other African countries, where farmers sell to American and European companies and end up trapped in cycles of debt and exclusivity contracts with them.

 

[Kamaaludeen Al Reewin]

How can we be self sufficient when the breadbasket farmers of somalia have ended up in idp camps. Why? Because of instability and the fact that these NGO's are bringing food into Somalia, that food then goes into corrupt hands who instead of giving it to the needy flood it into the market for dirt cheap pushing out the farmers who were selling their crops.

If we want self sufficient we need to get rid of these ngos and any foreigners and even cheap foreign food. Then invest in the farmers. At first it will be difficult but in the end we will becme self sufficient .

 

[Afar indhood]

Love how some people talk like we're one irrigation pipe away from a food revolution. Invest and Mooryaans take your business? Nah. Just wait and wait.

We survive on aid meant for Danab, resold at Bakaaro like it’s a business model. That’s what keeps bur, bariis, and sokor cheap enough to pretend things are fine. But sure, tell us again how this is all turning around any day now.

 

[World]

Not enough water in Somalia to achieve food self sufficiency, we will need to import food. But we dont need food aid for that, just a competent government.

 

[reer]

Not enough water in Somalia to achieve food self sufficiency, we will need to import food. But we dont need food aid for that, just a competent government.

losing galbeed and nfd is handicapping somalis.

 

[Idilinaa]

How can we be self sufficient when the breadbasket farmers of somalia have ended up in idp camps. Why? Because of instability and the fact that these NGO's are bringing food into Somalia, that food then goes into corrupt hands who instead of giving it to the needy flood it into the market for dirt cheap pushing out the farmers who were selling their crops.

If we want self sufficient we need to get rid of these ngos and any foreigners and even cheap foreign food. Then invest in the farmers. At first it will be difficult but in the end we will becme self sufficient .

It’s important to put things into perspective. Regions like Puntland, Somaliland, and even Galmudug produce a significant portion of their food locally, and their markets remain well-supplied. While large-scale commercial agriculture is mainly concentrated in the South, food production exists across the country.

The displacement of millions wasn’t primarily due to systemic instability or the presence of NGOs, it was largely the result of climate shocks, particularly severe flooding, which wiped out homes, farms, livestock, and local infrastructure. These were functioning agro-pastoral communities before the disaster.

As for NGOs, their role is more nuanced than it’s often portrayed. Many of them procure food locally, they buy in bulk from Somali farmers and traders to redistribute to those in need. In fact, Somali-owned companies and business leaders also fund these NGOs and foundations, seeing them as part of the broader recovery and stabilization process.

Of course, the influx of free food into markets can cause distortions if not managed properly, but the alternative, abandoning vulnerable populations, would be far more damaging in the short term. Farmers don’t grow food to give it away, someone needs to purchase it, whether that’s NGOs, institutions, or consumers. Aid and market systems can and often do coexist when planned effectively.

There’s no simple or instant fix to the IDP situation because of the sheer scale of the losses. What’s needed is long-term investment in recovery, infrastructure, housing, and local economies. That’s already starting to happen in parts of the country.

Focusing only on IDP camps to define Somalia overlooks the bigger picture. Strengthening the national economy, supporting local producers, and creating sustainable systems is how we move toward real self-sufficiency, not just by eliminating NGOs.

 

[Afrax]

There is enough food produced inside the country to feed everybody, and similarly with food imports. The problem isn’t a lack of food, it’s that food isn’t free, and that’s why those who are displaced or have lost their livelihoods in the short term require aid.

When you see numbers online or in reports about “millions needing food aid,” this crucial context is often left out. These figures usually refer to displaced communities or people facing temporary economic shocks. Most food insecurity in Somalia is due to economic displacement, not famine or actual shortages. So food isn’t the problem; purchasing power is.
View attachment 363637

As for the riverine zones you’ve mentioned, investment and planned projects have already been allocated to these areas, some completed and some are currently underway by both the government and regional states.

See this graph:
View attachment 363638

Separate from this, when it comes to agricultural production driven by locals and private investors, things are moving forward rapidly through key developments, micro-irrigation and drip systems, solar-powered pumps, and micro-financing.

A growing number of micro-irrigation tech companies and micro-financing institutions (MFIs) are popping up across the country. This is proving to be an incredibly intelligent and cost-effective method to expand production into new areas. It's also an adaptive solution to climate variability.

View attachment 363640
View attachment 363641

View attachment 363642

To answer your question more directly. if Somalia aims to reduce food imports and grow demand for local produce, then the government needs to subsidize farmers and adopt an import-substitution strategy, particularly for staples like wheat and rice. That also means introducing tariffs or other forms of protection on cheap foreign products.

This is what has largely been done in Ogaden, where they managed to boost incomes and reduce prices in the process. Hopefully, Somalia will continue to follow through with the planned projects shown in the graph, especially the import-substitution aspect focused on wheat and rice, agro-processing, as well as critical infrastructure like highways and roads. I’m not entirely sure how much of an obstacle Al-Shabaab poses to these plans, but the direction is clearly laid out.

You are missing the point. USAID subsidizes American(and Ukrainian?) farmers and with hundreds of millions by purchasing grain from them. This organization then needs to find markets to dump this food aid otherwise the subsidies will end. (Motive)

They use ''Food insecure'' countries like Somalia as a subsidized market. And it is no coincidence that they send the food aid during the peak harvest seasons. Thoroughly disrupting local markets. There has been a call to move on to direct cash transfers for a reason. (Means)

We should demand direct cash transfers as the only form of aid but only short term.

These developments alone might only be alarming on their own. But when you clock the fact that UN agencies like FSNAU(under FAO) grossly underestimate and outright fabricate the total grain production in Somalia(Creating demand). Imagine that FSNAU claims in 2024 Middle Shabelle with a total cultivated landmass way above million hectares only produced maize enough to feed little more than 100,000 ppl (Around 24,750 tons of maize). FSNAU

While on average subsistence farming tends to produce 2-4 tons of Maize per hectare.

Remember that Middle Shabelle is a region that has 300,000 hectares of cambisol soil, engaging in Maize production. Middle Shabelle with a major river, deep wells, regular rains, warm climate, long growing period and the ideal soil type for Maize production. Even if only third of those numbers are achieved it makes absolutely no sense that only less than 25,000 tons were produced.

At this point to me it's more than apparent that there is something far more sinister than simple mistake at play. Also the fact WFP is never clear about how many tons of grain Somalia receives annually is unbelievable. We can't know for sure how many tons are being dumped into the country let alone how much of it ends circulating in the free market.

I mean, this is beyond nefarious activity and closely resembles an integrated covert action programs certain intelligence agencies are known for.

 

[Afrax]

It’s important to put things into perspective. Regions like Puntland, Somaliland, and even Galmudug produce a significant portion of their food locally, and their markets remain well-supplied. While large-scale commercial agriculture is mainly concentrated in the South, food production exists across the country.

The displacement of millions wasn’t primarily due to systemic instability or the presence of NGOs, it was largely the result of climate shocks, particularly severe flooding, which wiped out homes, farms, livestock, and local infrastructure. These were functioning agro-pastoral communities before the disaster.

As for NGOs, their role is more nuanced than it’s often portrayed. Many of them procure food locally, they buy in bulk from Somali farmers and traders to redistribute to those in need. In fact, Somali-owned companies and business leaders also fund these NGOs and foundations, seeing them as part of the broader recovery and stabilization process.

Of course, the influx of free food into markets can cause distortions if not managed properly, but the alternative, abandoning vulnerable populations, would be far more damaging in the short term. Farmers don’t grow food to give it away, someone needs to purchase it, whether that’s NGOs, institutions, or consumers. Aid and market systems can and often do coexist when planned effectively.

There’s no simple or instant fix to the IDP situation because of the sheer scale of the losses. What’s needed is long-term investment in recovery, infrastructure, housing, and local economies. That’s already starting to happen in parts of the country.

Focusing only on IDP camps to define Somalia overlooks the bigger picture. Strengthening the national economy, supporting local producers, and creating sustainable systems is how we move toward real self-sufficiency, not just by eliminating NGOs.

Western-Somaliland has a massive intensively cultivated landmass and extending into Fafan zone.

Togdheer, Sanaag, Sool, Bari, Western Mudug and Western Galgaduud I don't know how they could grow their food. I suspect these regions import most of their grain. Here there aren't enough regions with cultivated land numbering in the thousands of hectares. Doubt the annual caloric intake of their respective populations. But in all of those regions there are good roads and trade is active.

GM has most of its Eastern region engaging in low level grain production were surplus is sold to pastoralist or towns.

Here water is the biggest constraint also the soil types ranges from useless dunes, to poor and excellent soil.