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How Ethiopia has conspired with the international community to keep Somalis down


Make Hobyo Great Again
I, for one, am grateful for the valuable insights we’ve garnered from the ease with which the constitution was contravened to mobilise the Ethiopian National Defence Force (EDNF) and the heightened operational alertness reserved only, it seems, for Somali political affairs as inferenced by the military holding station for months amid ongoing deadly clashes and ethnic cleansing.
Thus when United Nations, DfID, USAID and the likes become more vested in the political project of Ethiopia, they routinely become part and parcel of state tools made available at the disposal of Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF) which in turn has a knock-on effects on many other programmes further facilitating exploitation by repressive authorities. In other words, aid and development sectors are not only highly political, it’s so effectively by design and with the full consent of Ethiopia’s international partners who guarantee the inherent structural biases.

For avoidance of doubt, ‘highly political’ and ‘by design’ is not just referring to institutions like the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) whose crass political agenda was too obviously exposed by its participation in rubberstamping resource mobilisation of nearly $1 billion for 4 integrated agro-industrial parks (IAIP) in 4 different locations, which somehow “coincidentally” correspond to the exact same 4 constituents of EPRDF parties; namely Amhara, Tigray, Oromia and SNNP. Instead, we should focus on sophisticated actors, such as the World Bank, responsible for deep-seated subtle magnifiers of marginalisation with multiple economic dimensions. Consider this; World Bank increased its commitment funding by $977 million within a month of Abiy Ahmed becoming PM, which in comparison was more than its commitment funding for the whole of 2017 ($953 million). Total World Bank commitments for 2018, including the additional $1 billion budget help announced only few days ago, so far stands at a staggering $4.2 billion – that is the highest ever single year funding commitment in the bank’s history for Ethiopia.

These figures may appear neutral or even positive, that is, until you analyse the locations and types of projects supported. World Bank programme funding in Ethiopia was $14.2 billion since 2008 and involved 648 project locations, out of which only 7 (or just 1%) were located in the Somali region.
One of the main indirect negative consequence of World Bank funding is that it intentionally creates clusters of projects which disproportionally favour certain regions over others, for political reasons. So as chosen areas get more road networks, better electricity and other logistics-critical infrastructure, these locations subsequently become more attractive for investments at the expense of peripheral regions.

Above graph is based on data from Ethiopian Investment Commission (EIC) which catalogues all Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) made in the country. There were 5,239 FDI projects since January 2000, of which 4,278 (about 82%) were in Addis Ababa and Oromia, plus additional share from unspecified multi region FDI, whereas only 26 (or just 0.5%) were made in the Somali region. More damningly, half of the projects were investments from the Somali diaspora, 14 out of 26 went to implementation stage and only 6 are operational.

Of course this impact is not limited to foreign investments as it’s been manifesting most obviously through the domestic 157,767 active small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) according to 2017 figures. We gauge that 31.1% of SMEs (49,373) are based in Oromia; 25.1% of SMEs (39,600) in Tigray; 24.5% (38,692) in Amhara; but a meagre 0.2% (380) of SMEs are based in the Somali region as depicted in below graph. Considering that Somalis are said to number roughly the same as the Tigray in population terms (~6%), it’s an absolute scandalous situation to realise that Tigray region has 10421% more SMEs operating relative to the Somali region.

Furthermore, the Federal Urban Job Creation & Food Security Agency (FeUJCFSA) figures shows that Somali regional share of total employment created (1,172,678) over the accounting year 2016/2017 was barely 1.4% — with Oromia 40.5%, SNNPR 17.3%, Amhara 16% & Tigray 14%.

The picture of systematic marginalisation isn’t entirely complete until you take business lending figures from the Central Bank of Ethiopia published in 2017, where a breakdown of credit amounts granted (in millions Birr) by region is available. I have adapted this date in the below chart to again indicate relative proportionality between the regions expressed in percentages. Here’s where the Amhara region enjoys the biggest advantage (38.9% of total credit corresponding to more than 2.75billion Birr) and yet again where Somali region is amongst the worst off (1.6% share in credit amounts).

All of these examples represent just the tip of a massive iceberg hidden underneath surface. It only takes a little scratching to unearth many more examples, because this silent socio-economic engineering stretches to all levels and layers of governance strata including education, technology and politics. It’s a total warfare being waged against any chances of future prosperity for the Somali population, which has been explicitly and implicitly endorsed by various international partners and associated agencies with the aim of artificially holding Ethiopia together. That’s why, even though Somalis have disproportionally suffered and bled fighting for their rights, made all the more visible in below conflict fatalities chart, they’re entirely ignored by the international community and global diplomatic circles.

Somalis are in an irreconcilable zero sum game situation where, on one hand, Ethiopian Constitution (Article 40(3) & Article 89(5)) grants exclusive ownership of all natural resources to the state of Ethiopia, and the Petroleum Proclamation (295/1986) grants the Minister of Mines & Energy all rights to regulate, issue licenses and manage oil and gas contracts in Ethiopia. Which is why Ethiopia has been auctioning exploration licenses and signing production sharing agreements (PSA) without the knowledge or consent of Somalis. Needless to state that signing bonus did NOT go to Somalis; royalties on gross production will NOT go to Somalis; sales tax, income tax on profit or corporation tax will also NOT go to Somalis. The 5% that was recently floated by the Ethiopian prime minister was entirely in accurate and intentionally misleading. The oil and gas company gets priority recuperate production cost as part of contractually stipulated cost recovery agreement. This means the company first deducts capital expenditure in acquisitions of machinery, plants, buildings, etc.; then deducts intangible exploration costs; then deducts interest payments on loans; then deducts administrative expenses and other technical fees as operations expenditures. And finally whatever remains of the “profit oil” is shred between the company and the Ethiopian government in predetermined ration of roughly 70%-30%. Therefore, 5% is not a share of gross production or even net profits, it’s 5% of government’s share of profit oil which in total production value terms is less than 1.5%!
Reports from Global Financial Integrity estimated that the world has lost between $2 trillion and $3.5 trillion in (to) 2014 due to illicit financial flows; estimate of illicit outflows from developing countries to the developed world alone sum up to $620 billion in 2014.
The illicit financial flow from Ethiopiais conducted mainly through business personalities which are highly affiliated and controlled by government officials and through black markets as there are no foreign banks in the country which channels money. Increased corruption, kickbacks and bribery are main sources of illicit financial flows which ends assets in foreign jurisdictions which they are happy to receive.

Everything that world banks gives to Ethiopia is divided by ethnic lines and stolen by ethnic lines.

I bet Amhar, Tigray and Oromo complain to the world bank and say "Please give us the money first, because you gave them two countries and stuffed all of us in this oven called Ethiopia".

Ethiopia is set to collapse in a few short years, the debt is sky rocketing, youth unemployment is high, interest rates on their loans are increasing and they still won't allow private companies to flourish. The fact that the entire countries top 20 companies are State-owned goes to show you that Ethiopia is like another Argentina.

Somalis are self governing. They want to own their own businesses and let the market decide who wins. Ethiopia is run like Argentina but without a homogenous ethnic group.

In the very near future when Somalia gets rising, we will buy back the entire Somali galbeed and Ethiopias state owned companies by funding Somali competitors
Business people, diplomats and bankers said Chinese entities, which have loaned more than $13bn between 2006 and 2015 for everything from roads and railways to industrial parks, were now taking a “more cautious approach” to Ethiopia. “The Chinese have said they’ve reached their limit,” one diplomat in Addis Ababa said. “’We’re way overextended here,’ they told us openly.”
Two investors said that Sinosure, China’s main state-owned export and credit insurance company, was no longer extending credit insurance to Chinese banks for projects in Ethiopia as willingly as it used to. “There’s a new reluctance to back investments in Ethiopia,” one investor said. “It’s not completely clear why but it appears they’re worried about the debt profile and forex crisis.” This reluctance comes as some flagship Chinese-financed projects, such as freight rail services from Addis Ababa to Djibouti, are running below the expected capacity.
There's going to be massive global collapse coming, and heads will be rolling in Ethiopia since much of the money China gave to Ethiopia was misused by TPLF.

Somalia is lucky yet again to learn from these mistakes.


”United Daarood” :dead:
TWENTY THOUSAND united Darood's from Somalia & Ethiopia descended on Tukaraq ,yet failed to recapture it MULTIPLE times.

From Child soldiers to pensioner all attacked from 3 different directions yet failed to inflict harm on the blessed Republic of Somaliland .
If a united Darood could not capture Tukaraq back how can Carre and his 40 friends do anything ?

Stealing a ambulance is the most succeses they will have.
SSC is coming to a Tuulo near you.

There’s much thing as a “United Darood Front”, it’s literally a subclan (MJ) and a divided Sool and Sanaag.

This thread is about Ethiopia and Somalis living in Ethiopia.

Carre is in PL because of soaring unemployment and corruption, drug addiction, poor fiscal planning, property rights and shady deals with non-existent banks registered out of parking lots.
TWENTY THOUSAND united Darood's from Somalia & Ethiopia descended on Tukaraq ,yet failed to recapture it MULTIPLE times.

From Child soldiers to pensioner all attacked from 3 different directions yet failed to inflict harm on the blessed Republic of Somaliland .
This thread is about Ethiopia.

If you want to discuss the fake banks, poor unemployment, mass defections, souring inflation, poor infrustructure, geopolical miscalculations and other Bixi blunders we can do so in another thread.


TWENTY THOUSAND united Darood's from Somalia & Ethiopia descended on Tukaraq ,yet failed to recapture it MULTIPLE times.

From Child soldiers to pensioner all attacked from 3 different directions yet failed to inflict harm on the blessed Republic of Somaliland .



Make Hobyo Great Again
@xabashi Tell me again about how the Somali region receives the most money from the Ethiopian government.
When we secede, we're not paying a penny of your debt and the international courts will side with us.
Yet your folks support this guy until today:

"Aabo Meles ma dhimani"

"Daddy Meles didn't die"

"Dhamaanu Meles baanu nahay"

"We are all Meles"
@xabashi Tell me again about how the Somali region receives the most money from the Ethiopian government.
When we secede, we're not paying a penny of your debt and the international courts will side with us.
Dude, I was talking about Ethiopian budget that there are regions that are giver and there are regions that are more receivers. There are regions that are in relative terms have bigger economies and there are those that are called "developing" regions. Specially pastoralist regions like Afar and Somali are economically very weak compared to regions like Oromia, Amhara, Addis Ababa, South and even Tigray. The reasons for thier poor economic performance are well known:
1. Pastoralist communities are almost every year hit by drought and that make them the most aid dependent regions of all
2. Because of their pastoralist nature, school enrolment and access to education is low compared to the other regions
3. low school enrolment and low access to education means they have less educated labor force in many fields that can dominate diverse sectors. In fact regions like Afar had to make Amharic their working language at the establishment of their state for lack of professionals in many sectors. Now they are better and so Afar is now the working language of the state.

Now come to the data above. If it were a systematic approach then you would find Tigray #1 in every possible index but it is not. How come in many of the indexes you find Tigray not at the top? How come Addis Ababa, Oromia or Amhara region can beat Tigray in many of the indexes?

Foreign direct investment is mostly private money. Most of them are companies who want to build factories or cultivate farm land and export it. So resources like fertile land, water and a skilled labour are the main advantages. Just on these parameters, the pastoralists lose easily and you can't force a foreign company to invest in a certain area. Additionally Somali region was until recently very insecure, even a war zone. The same kind of risk has also Tigray because of the Ethio-Eritrean no-war-no peace situation.

Another parameter is the competence of the ruling elite in the regions. In some regions the leaders try everything to attract foreign investment by giving land easily to investors, by giving tax breaks, by providing the necessary information and also by reducing the bureaucracy for investors to quickly get started. In other regions, the leaders are lazy, they only think about their bellies. They don't have a vision for their people. The bureaucracy and the corruption to get things done is unbearable for investors.

Now even if the gab between relative stronger economies and "developing" economies still exist, the likes of Somali regions have made enormous progress in the past few years in many sectors including education up to university levels, health sector with better hospitals and in infrastructure like roads etc. I am not making it up, anyone can witness the progress that has been made in the Somali state the last few years. But still compared to other stronger regions that is still limited and my hope is the current and future elected leaders will do a much better job of improving the lives of their people in every possible sector.

But in all honesty to present the above data as if it is an attempt of the international community to exclusively hurt Somalis is way out of the line and dishonest. We have to see the problem in practical terms and discuss the real reasons behind the data. What about Afar? Afar is even worse in many parameters than the Somali region. Is that also a conspiracy against Afar? They are known for being Ethiopian nationalist, so why the supposedly conspiracy against them? We have to come out of the conspiracy BS if we want to improve the lives of people, instead it is important to identify and face the challenges in real life. Hiding behind a conspiracy won't help much.