Current Affairs HirShabelle presidential elections to be delayed as aspirants keep off race

Calaf

Obergruppenführer in Command (OIC)
VIP
MOGADISHU (HOL) - Presidential elections in HirShabelle is set to be postponed after it emerged that no other candidate has presented himself to battle it out with the Federal Government fronted aspirant Ali Guudlaawe.

Sources close to the developments have told HOL other candidates have silently withdrawn from the race for what they termed as ‘a flawed and already determined election.’

The candidates, sources told HOL ‘know the Federal Government will ensure Guudlaawe becomes president’. In effect sources added, ‘the other candidates see this as an exercise futility.’

Elections for a new president were to take place shortly after a new speaker of Parliament was elected. The state assembly elected a new speaker last Wednesday.


However, HOL has learnt the election of a new president will be deferred to the future to avoid a ‘lone candidate’ race.

Guudlaawe who is currently the deputy president is publicly known to be backed by Mogadishu.

His prospects were further confirmed after Abdi Waare resigned as HirShabelle president citing a fall-out with the Federal Government.

In his resignation letter, Waare claimed that the Federal Government gave him a deaf ear after he sought for a delay of the presidential elections.

Waare was, for a better part of his two year presidency, a close ally of the Federal Government especially at a time when relations between the Federal Member States and Mogadishu were rocky.

The Federal Government has successfully installed its preferred candidates in South West and Galmudug in the last two years.

Attempts to replicate this success in Jubbaland failed after Ahmed Madobe stuck to his guns with the apparent support of Kenya.
 
Whats the point of competing when you already know the outcome, give this maamul 3 months and it will collapse. Waare and Osoble were both PHD holders this guy is a warlord in Mohamed Dheere's army lmao. RIP to Hirshabelle.
 
@Kheyre GM/HS are not 'federal states' that is supposed to model itself of PL. We should strip them of 'federal member status' and relegate them another 'status' that truly reflects the system in place. Call them a Federal Territory. Or Administrative Zones. Just something different to distinguish them since they do not function and the federal govt is constantly intefering only because they have 'federal status' and 'federal member rights' in the election.

If this federal member status was taken away from them, it would lead to no more interference by the SFG. The SFG plan for HS/GM is to create a 'federalism' that is-in line with the 'centralist' and they think they can use that to 'buckle' PL/JL into accepting a weaker form of federalism. Will this happen, of course not, it's just more time-wasting by the centralist because they want to have some sort of 'cover' while they continue looting and enriching themselves, so political conflict is one way of doing that. PL/JL will enjoy fully autonomous state, while GM/HS will enjoy territory or provincial governments, Somalia will end up with HYBRID federalism not an 'equal federalism'.

The only one hurting here is you in federalism, the chances it will effect other regions aspirations is unlikely since the whole point behind 'federation' is to ensure burburkina iyo siyasadina stays confined to your homeland, while PL aspirations and siyasad and development remains separate and unaffected. That is the idea behind 'federalism'. We just wanted a federal govt existing in Mogadishu since it effected our international relations status, we really do not care for what HS/GM status ends up being. We achieved our goal and PL has access to the world because Somalia is back on the map. We put that biij back on the map not because we have any love for you waryaa, but because it was impedin us from moving on.
 
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Karim

With A Brave Heart anything is possible
VIP
They will never be as cohesive as PL. They'll always be the smaller less independent States firmly under the tight grip of Mogadishu admin.
 
Whats the point of competing when you already know the outcome, give this maamul 3 months and it will collapse. Waare and Osoble were both PHD holders this guy is a warlord in Mohamed Dheere's army lmao. RIP to Hirshabelle.
Waxaan qirayaa iney qalad aheyd inaan annagoo qabaa’il yar yar ah wax ku darsanno qowmiyad, dhinaca Xawaadlena qaladkaa anaa dusha saaranaya - cali cosoble :drakelaugh:

Listen to your phd holder uncle :drakelaugh: those 2 were as soft as baby shit. This state needs a strongman atm with everything going on and 1 of maxamed dheeres aun old generals seems perfect. It scares you the garbaash you will be receiving from harti abgaal in the future. You people always crying bout something. I though you was happy with the capital? :dead::dead::dead:
 

kickz

Engineer of Qandala
VIP
Last thing I heard was election is tomorrow and Gudlaawe is the favorite to be Hirshabeele President
 
Waxaan qirayaa iney qalad aheyd inaan annagoo qabaa’il yar yar ah wax ku darsanno qowmiyad, dhinaca Xawaadlena qaladkaa anaa dusha saaranaya - cali cosoble :drakelaugh:

Listen to your phd holder uncle :drakelaugh: those 2 were as soft as baby shit. This state needs a strongman atm with everything going on and 1 of maxamed dheeres aun old generals seems perfect. It scares you the garbaash you will be receiving from harti abgaal in the future. You people always crying bout something. I though you was happy with the capital? :dead::dead::dead:

Just don't cry later.

" Waxaa sidoo kale meesha ku jirta sida Guudlaawe ku aqbali doonin inuu ku shaqeeyo magaalo uu dareemayo in deegaan ahaan looga xooggan yahay."

:yousmart:
 
Last thing I heard was election is tomorrow and Gudlaawe is the favorite to be Hirshabeele President
Lol nobody is even competing even the heavyweight xawaadle politicians came out and rejected to waste money by registering after Gudlaawe got played by installing NISA into the HS Parliament. When they kick him out just don't cry later @Jetlife when you have neither presidency or capital lol. You don't know what you lost. Xawaadle will have 3 powers lmao (Speaker, Vice Presidency and capital) while you have the presidency by name only. You will have Crazy Dabageed as your Vice President who will be checking your every move. You will be conered and you will be running away to xamar which you have no influence lmao after farmaajo used and abused you and cucked you in your own city! while consuming your taxes


 

As expected, Guulwade wins the "election"

Meaning : Galmudug, SouthWest State, and now Hirshabelle is under Farmajo sphere of influence
The problem with Farmajo doing this is HSM tried this interference game, it doesn't work sxb, they will sell you out on the night of the election to the biggest 'briber' they can get. If Farmajo tackled the issue of 'bribes' then I can understand this working in his favour, but creating puppets in the regions and assuming they will elect u doesn't calculate one critical factor 'money'. Dubai will be heavily involved in this election and it will be throwing out heap of 'dough' and this will simply break down 'farmajo coalition'. If u don't believe me that this will be the outcome, learn from HSM, he attempted to do the same by installing new presidents in GM/HS, did it work out 4 him? Poor political style, you need to learn from the past, not repeat it.
 

Calaf

Obergruppenführer in Command (OIC)
VIP
The problem with Farmajo doing this is HSM tried this interference game, it doesn't work sxb, they will sell you out on the night of the election to the biggest 'briber' they can get. If Farmajo tackled the issue of 'bribes' then I can understand this working in his favour, but creating puppets in the regions and assuming they will elect u doesn't calculate one critical factor 'money'. Dubai will be heavily involved in this election and it will be throwing out heap of 'dough' and this will simply break down 'farmajo coalition'. If u don't believe me that this will be the outcome, learn from HSM, he attempted to do the same by installing new presidents in GM/HS, did it work out 4 him? Poor political style, you need to learn from the past, not repeat it.
Hassan Shiekh failed to use his power efficiently. You can put a clone of himself in for all he cares, and yet HSM lost it. With Farmajo, and the current situation, It is safe to say, that he outsmarted 3 out of 5 federal states, giving him a high chance of reelection. Hawiyes would always flip on each other, as seen with HSM. Right now, he is the only visible candidate for President.
 
Hassan Shiekh failed to use his power efficiently. You can put a clone of himself in for all he cares, and yet HSM lost it. With Farmajo, and the current situation, It is safe to say, that he outsmarted 3 out of 5 federal states, giving him a high chance of reelection. Hawiyes would always flip on each other, as seen with HSM. Right now, he is the only visible candidate for President.
The chance of Farmajo re-election would make Somali History, no incumbent gets re-elected is quite a 'tradition' now in Somali politics. The only time I can see Farmajo being elected is if all the field is a worse option and I am sure the opposition are not going to 'field the worst' and give him the election. But u still didn't answer the one critical factor u didn't calculate and will always find out when it's too late.

When they 'strip you off your bribe' and then 'switch their vote' is quite common practise in Somali politics. It's actually a common saying now 'lacagta ka siib iyo niinka kale uu shub'. Hence why I say rather then playing the old 'auction' war which will most likely not work in your favor since your the incumbent, lacagta bay ka siibayan and nin kale bay dooranayan.

Plus take into another 'factor' the PL/JL power houses who can muscle into the election like they did with Farmajo plans of one man one vote and turn his ass upside down even with his 'sphere of influence of 3 naflacari states' u will also not take into account this 'crucial element' on election night is my opinion and will see a similar outcome like farmajo did when he couldn't get thru one man one vote. So those two factors PL/JL flexing on election night and 'advising' beesha 'calamka' and 'qatar' that re-election of Farmajo can result in a 'Split Somalia' they will obviously concede for the national interest 'farmaajo ba fudud' halka PL/JL waa 'dawlado'.

That's why I think u will lose 'farmajo is just one man'. PL/JL are 'real govts' an control large territories and have economic infrastructure, they won't risk these places just for some american refugee come on now, if u honestly think they will, sxb u really need to learn the art of politics. The other thing I think u won't take into factor is the 'money' issue, u will predictably play the 'auction war' and 'promises of positions and business contracts to certain clans' but as we know 'money' factor never has favored the incumbent, it always favors the opposition.

If I was 'farmajo' I would enact 'anti corruption' laws and say you will not accept any election outcome if any 'money' was involved and name 'guddiga laluushka loooool' cause as I said u already know 'moeny doesn't favor the incumbent but the opposition' and number 2 you will look like a 'hero' among Somalis that u want to end corruption and ensure somalia power is decided by somalis not by financiers from qatar/dubai. That's how u play politics waryaa. U will just play the same card HSM did in 2016 and we know where that got him.
 
@Calaf good luck waryaa but I am confident you will be flipped based on a number of reasons.

1. It's somali tradition to not re-elect the incumbent
2. U didn't take into factor the money issue and how it never favors the incumbent and haven't developed a strategy to eliminate money from the election as it won't work in your favor at all
3. U lost to PL/JL who flexed their muscle at u over one man one vote while those 3 naflacari hawiye states were 'playing' to your tune and they still couldn't save u which showed your election strategy didn't work and on election night if your still holding onto the same '3 naflacaris' PL/JL are very confident and have this sealed in the bag..
4. U didn't take into consideration PL/JL warning international community and qatar who back u, if farmajo returns it will lead to a political crisis in the nation and a new president must be named and anything outside of that will lead to PL/JL cutting all ties to the Federal govt. They will obviously respect the wishes of PL/JL who are regional states and sacrifice the 'american refugee' and tell him to buckle especially 'qatar' who will tell him to stand down and back another 'qatar candidate' most likely 'kheyre'.

Those are my reasons why I am not confident for Farmajo. PL/JL are ultimately going to play a big role and Farmajo hasn't worked well with these TWO big ELEPHANTS like HSM didn't. We know what happens when people come against these TWO giants of Somalia usually they get 'sacked' from presidency. Farmajo strategy has to change niyahow, he needs to drop the naflacaris in hs/gm/south west and face the music in GAROWE n KISMAYO
 

Calaf

Obergruppenführer in Command (OIC)
VIP
@DR OSMAN

Let me answer your questions
1. Traditions change, Somalis have a small span of attention. If they see no actions, they move on to the next person. But with Farmajo, there are some major changes felt within Xamar and even in Federal States, that wasn't seen with Hassan Shiekh or even Sharif Shiekh
2. Corruption will play a major factor, more then any times before. I think money wise, the opposition are on par with Farmajo. But Farmajo, unfortunately has Qatar/Turkey/Iran circle of influence. T
3. PL/JL may hate Farmajo for his darn policies, but they don't have a candidate themselves. These Hawiyes have been played to the point of Sharif Shiekh now "fliping" on Hassan Shiekh. Do you honestly think him, HSM or CC Shakur will be elected? Kheyre is hated on all sides of the spectrum, and even isn't Qatar backed (Fahad Yasin). What other KNOWN candidate will there be, if Farmajo isn't suitable. Is Deni running himself, or is Madoobe. Both ain't for all I know.
4. Again, International Community have clearly shown their disappointment in the current candidates. Farmajo may be disliked, but who is the change? If you weigh in Tribal factors, you can kiss goodbye to Kheyre and maybe even Sharif Sheikh

Farmajo is filing up the Parliament with his stooges, same with the committees and even 3 Federal states are under his circle of control. So what remaining is the election. Corruption or not, Farmajo has the upper hand.
 
@Calaf if the election comes down to 'money' which I am sure the opposition will want that to be the case, they are pretty much guaranteed the election because there is no incumbent who has won using the 'auction war' strategy, it's quite common to strip the incumbent of his money and elect the opposition. PL/JL haven't even fielded their candidate yet.

But what I do know is when they initiate the auction war with Farmajo using Dubai Cash, they will let u waste the money first in the first round on yourself, while fielding a 'diverse' range of candidates, we not going to field one big candidate at the beginning, because that's election suicide, we will field a 'range of clans as is custom in these elections' in order to secure a broad base of 'clans-votes'. We won't spend our money in this phase of the run.

As soon as it starts to thin out in the second round and after u wasted all the money and found out the inevitable truth 'strip him and then switch the vote' style of most MPS, this is when we will see who has the most 'votes' in Parliament and those are the ones we will 'bribe big time' and u will be 'empty' by then as u will follow hassan sheikh strategy like u did your whole 4 year tenure. It's the second round where PL/JL will 'flex' the muscle and cash and create a final 'coalition' while your standing there 'exhausted' after the first round like all 'incumbents' are.

U will spend all your money in the first round, you have too as an incumbent or else they will automatically vote for the opposition, a-lot of your financial engine will dry out in the second round which is inevitable and that's when PL/JL will strike. We will ensure the 'large field' thins out and we will 'create' two candidate strategy against you so we don't risk putting our eggs in one basket like you are with farmajo, u dont have secondary route lol, u r on one road sxb and that is your downfall in the end because u will need to get three rounds with just 'one person' that is why the incumbent never makes it.

As I said I know your time is up, what hurt u was PL/JL and being hostile and not accomodating. This was your biggest failure thinking you can 'slug' it out with them and walk away on top.
 

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