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Have Al Shabaab activities decreased ?

fox

VIP
What is your point? We should be concerned about increased AS deaths? You seem to be going in circles yourself. Increased 'fatalities' from AS is a good thing.
Again ACLED publishes the data as "All terror related fatalities".
We really out here concerned for Shabaab deaths now
English isn't your strong suit.

Last time ... ACLED publishes the data as "All terror related fatalities".
 
ACLED publishes the data as "All terror related fatalities".

English isn't your strong suit.

Last time ... ACLED publishes the data as "All terror related fatalities".
:gucciwhat:

What is your point? We should be upset about increased AS deaths?

Get some rest.
 
Is ACLED a reliable source?

In this article we will discuss who ACLED are and their findings.

ACLED stands for Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, they are a non-governmental organization specializing in disaggregated conflict data collection, analysis, and crisis mapping. With that said, they have positioned themselves as source for Somalia’s conflict data.

The sources that we will be using in this article are :

Now lets start with the most common graph seen around the news and social media.

Figure 1 : BBC Report using ACLED data

ACLED accuracy can be questioned in five main areas.

  • Geographical location
  • Distinguishing combatants from civilians
  • Cause of death
  • Overestimating the casualties
  • Undisclosed reports
Overestimating the casualties
A example Dr Shire gives is an incident that accured on the 20th January 2019 in which ACLED reported that 10 people were killed in an attack but the reality on the ground was that 4 NISA agents were killed. This causes a inflation in numbers and the validity of this data comes in question.

Distinguishing combatants from civilians
In 18th January 2017, there were two major incidents that day and neither included civilians or government troops.

The two incidents are :

  • Al Shabaab (AS) conduct a purge within their own ranks in the vicinity of Sablaale, Lower Shabelle. This led to the execution of two foreign AS soldiers.
  • AS conducted another purge within the same day at an unknown location. The victims were two AS soldiers who have been allegedly accused of spying.
Even though these deaths do not include any civilians, they are not distinguished in the fatality report. You can find the spreadsheet here by selecting the dates you wish to check.

Cause of death
There has be a few instances where ACLED reported non-combat deaths as combat deaths. The most notorious one being the incident that happened on 30th January 2017 where 32 civilians lost their lives to due a contaminated well. This is also confirmed in their own notes of the incident but still marked “violence against civilians”, though cause of death is consumption of contaminated water.

ACLED has a few categories to classify each incident these are :

  • Event Type : Battles, Explosion, Violence against civilians
  • Sub events : Grenade,Attack, IED, Armed Clash, Abduction
  • Actor 1 : AS, SNA, AMISOM, Civilian
  • Actor 2 : AS, SNA, AMISOM, Civilian
  • Location :
  • Notes :
If we use their own way to categorise this event, It would look something like this :
Date : 30-01-2017
Event Type : Violence against civilians
Sub event : Attack
Actor 1 : Al Shabaab
Acton 2 : Civilians
Location : Baydhabo
Notes : at least 32 civilians have died, mainly women and children due to a contaminated well.

This brings into question, how the data was gathered and compiled as regional reports suggest that it was poisoned but did not specify by who and nobody claimed resposibility.

Geographical errors
Geographical issues can be sometimes dismissed if they are roughly around the same area or region since information can vary but ACLED reports that there was IED incident in Gabiley on 9th July 2019 but Gabiley is between Hargeisa and Borama. There has been no presence of AS or any problems in those northern regions for a very long time. The exact location of this explosion however was in Dhoobley, which is in south Somalia. Dr Shire also mentions errors and brings them into question.

Undisclosed reports
In most countries where there is conflict and war, there is usually official reports coming out of the country and the exact source is usually mentioned. Lets take the countries of Afghanistan, Iraq and Nigeria as an benchmark and compare them to Somalia’s sources.

  • Afghanistan: 1042 events with 0 undisclosed sources
  • Iraq : 1322 events with 0 undisclosed sources
  • Nigeria : 3872 events with 0 undisclosed sources
  • Somalia: 1780 events with 1321 disclosed sources
By looking at the sources of Somalia, this raises suspecious as 1321 out of the 1780 are undisclosed between Jan 2010 – Jan 2020. This means that almost 75% of all reports that were coming out of Somalia and being inserted into the ACLED database had undisclosed sources.

However, ACLED does say that all the information provided has not been independently verified by a team of researchers and that there is a margin of error but does not state the degree. The dataset on Somalia has many errors, blank years and undisclosed sources, this means that it cannot be used as a reliable source of conflict information in regards to Somalia.
 

fox

VIP
:gucciwhat:

What is your point? We should be upset about increased AS deaths?

Get some rest.
No. The Dr's critique is flawed.

ACLED published the data as "terror related fatalities" irrespective of whether if it includes civilians, combatants or stray street cats.
 
No. The Dr's critique is flawed.

ACLED published the data as "terror related fatalities" irrespective of whether if it includes civilians, combatants or stray street cats.
...We know. Thats literally what @Dharbash pointed out to you many posts ago. Thats why its unreliable, and for the reasons highlighted in my last post. Which is also mentioned in the OP.

So again what are you talking about lol?
 

fox

VIP
...We know. Thats literally what @Dharbash pointed out to you many posts ago. Thats why its unreliable, and for the reasons highlighted in my last post. Which is also mentioned in the OP.

So again what are you talking about lol?
Love ... Let me break it down for you ... If ACLED were to publish their data as "terror related fatalities of civilians" it would be misleading. But they're not doing so. They've published it as "all terror related fatalities". The Dr's critique is flawed.

I'm going to bed.
 
Love ... Let me break it down for you ... If ACLED were to publish their data as "terror related fatalities of civilians" it would be misleading. But they're not doing so. They've published it as "all terror related fatalities". The Dr's critique is flawed.

I'm going to bed.
Someone gets it.

The Dr's blog post against ACLED is silly.
:kanyehmm: unreal.
 
Could you quote me where anyone made such a claim?

Why does peace and getting rid of AS trigger people? Its actually sick.
Yes, the Federal gov. is pushing for peace and is also fighting Al Shabab they are very dedicated to that mission and they have shown much focus in that.

Its amazing that even in the land of thieves and corruption(Africa) the most corrupt and inept(Somalia) still have die hard brainwashed stans.
 
Yes, the Federal gov. is pushing for peace and is also fighting Al Shabab they are very dedicated to that mission and they have shown much focus in that.

Its amazing that even in the land of thieves and corruption(Africa) the most corrupt and inept(Somalia) still have die hard brainwashed stans.
Oh I see why you're mad. You're simply mad that its the FG doing it.

You can give people their credit where its due and criticize them where you see fit. Thats what a decent person would do, not be triggered by news of decreasing civilian deaths.
 

Adaawe

Xoog iyo Xiniyo #XX2020
You know what's funny about this thread? It's all the secessionists, clan state fans, and niggas who hate to see Mogadishu get safer.

 
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