GERD dam and Conflict in Ethiopia

Prime Minister

Somali Promotion Agent
Despite the fact that Egypt was successful at ousting al-Bashir and installing the puppet government in Sudan with the help of the Israel and the Gulf Monarchies, it is a bit late to act as Ethiopia is at final stages of making the dam fully operational. Hence, the need for the alternative plan.
What would this plan be what can they possibly do other than attacking the dam at this point?
 

AbdiGeedi

To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
What would this plan be what can they possibly do other than attacking the dam at this point?

As I said in my 1st post, the plan is now to grab the GERD dam intact through initiating Balkanization in Ethiopia.

What is going on in Tigray at the moment is a precursor of things to come. The very fact of Amharas taking over territories in Tigray and looting the Tigrayan properties will have far-reaching outcome for Ethiopia's Balkanized future.

The below quotes give us hints too:

liberation movement(s) for Benishangul Muslim natives who live near GERD and who want help to stop Xabash/Oromo migrants ovetwhelming their fertile region that type of liberation front could be have more impact

I remember when the dam was first announced many Sudanese people were shocked because Benishangul used to be a part of Sudan (just like how Kassala and Gedaref were a part of Ethiopia).
 

In terms of size and distance, Al Fashaga is the same as the surrounding region of GERD (5 miles from Sudan border) so I wonder if Amhara peasants will convince Abiy to trade GERD for the disputed farmland.
 

AbdiGeedi

To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
In terms of size and distance, Al Fashaga is the same as the surrounding region of GERD (5 miles from Sudan border) so I wonder if Amhara peasants will convince Abiy to trade GERD for the disputed farmland.
I doubt the exchange will ever happen. The GERD is way more important for impoverished Ethiopia from the point of view of energy independence and revenue generation, especially after Ethiopia spent $4.6 billions to build it. From the video, it is not clear how much of Al-Fashaga is back under the Sudanese control. It feels like the ambiguity was left intentionally by the Sudanese authorities.

al-fashaga3.png
 
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I doubt the exchange will ever happen. The GERD is way more important for impoverished Ethiopia from the point of view of energy independence and revenue generation, especially after Ethiopia spent $4.6 billions to build it. From the video, it is not clear how much of Al-Fashaga is back under the Sudanese control. It feels like the ambiguity was left intentionally by the Sudanese authorities.

View attachment 157536
Of course the GERD is far more important but Amhara peasants can't think critically. They'll choose fertile plains over the GERD, and the lingering sentiment of balkanization makes them even less attached to the dam. It's the educated Addis Ababa elite that are most passionate for the GERD since they know how important it is for the country's development (and lets be honest, Addis will reap most of the benefit).
 

AbdiGeedi

To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
Of course the GERD is far more important but Amhara peasants can't think critically. They'll choose fertile plains over the GERD, and the lingering sentiment of balkanization makes them even less attached to the dam. It's the educated Addis Ababa elite that are most passionate for the GERD since they know how important it is for the country's development (and lets be honest, Addis will reap most of the benefit).
Really this is a question of how Amharas see their future within Ethiopia. Oromos are more numerous in comparison to Amharas. The natural outcome of the expansion of electrification through utilization of the GERD dam and embracing the information technologies will inadvertently bring political liberalization to Ethiopia. Just like the TPLF will never be able to come back to power in Addis Ababa, the Amhara elite won't be able to rule all of Ethiopia as before despite their treatment of Oromos as village fools. Times are changing.

I believe South Sudan will play a pivotal in the Egyptian moves to destabilize Ethiopia as South Sudan borders the Oromia region of Ethiopia and will likely be used for arming the OLF/OLA insurgency. We already saw the Egyptian military cargo planes in Juba.

oromia.PNG


juba-egypt.jpeg
 
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@AbdiGeedi Saudis realizing how they need to invest more in industry if they ever wanna have a more diversified economy like Turkey (since oil will be useless by 2040). But of course saudis are lazy so they wanna build factories in Sudan saying it has the potential to be an industrial hub.

China is also back in the country and investing in industry, this will definitely affect Ethiopia now that it’s viewed as a more stable, non-landlocked alternative.
 
Egypt messed up trying to depend on colonial pacts to safeguard their share of the nile
This is the perfect contract to shred by Africans and especially the Ethiopians
And if Sisi was smart he would have moved much earlier when the undercurrents with the TPLF were just starting and dude even got the fucking OK from Trump

On the China issue with trying to strangle India and the rest of its neighbours by controlling tibet and the water sources in the himalayas i feel like things would move slow
Nukes are involved and they are fighting plenty within the border regions already
The smaller nations should watch out tho

Turkey is somehat special since they seem to be moving unhindered even despite of the efforts of the west.Erdogen is making moves everywere from Libya,Syria,Somalia,Qatar etc. The Nargono conflict been so smooth is also a decent boost
I hope some unforseen circumstances dont occur
 

Aurelian

Forza Somalia!
VIP
But don't some gulf countries have already made invesments in the GERM and Ethiopia? How Egypt is forming an arab front with that?
 

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