AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
I think this discussion deserves its own thread instead of being drowned in the other sticky thread that has over a hundred pages.
There is an understanding in the world that fresh water disputes have a potential to become a major source for conflicts in this century as opposed to the oil and gas.
There are three hot spots that can spiral out of control.
1. China-Indian dispute over the flow of Brahmaputra river along their border in Tibet
2. Turkey vs Iraq/Syria over dams built in the Tigris–Euphrates river system
3. Ethiopia vs Egypt/Sudan over Blue Nile GERD dam
China, Turkey and Ethiopia are damming the rivers with their own funds as international financial instruments have refused participate in them.
Ethiopia is spending $4.6 billions on the GERD. Turkey has put $32 billions of its own money in the series of dams on Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
Interestingly, after the Turks started building dams the Kurdish PKK terrorist group was created to wage war against Turkey.
It is presumed that the GERD dispute is likely to be the first to explode.
In the Arab media, namely in Egypt, a notion of Pan-Arabian response against the grab of fresh water resources by Ethiopia, Turkey, Israel and Iran is being cultivated. The recent Egyptian moves in Sudan and South Sudan are in line. The idea here is to destabilize Ethiopia the Balkan style by supporting guerilla movements and grab the dam intact from weakened Ethiopia.
Egypt and Sudan had their very first joint military exercises recently and also signed military contracts on joint manufacturing of small caliber arms and air defense systems. There were Egyptian Air force cargo planes photographed in Juba, South Sudan's capital. Presumably, Egypt delivered arms to South Sudan.
In short, Egypt is forming an Arab front in the region against Ethiopia. It is even trying to sideline the UAE and convince Saudi Arabia to join in as it was recently evidenced by the call of the Egyptian FM to his Saudi counter part.
Ethiopia has a very weak point of being multi-ethnic state with each major ethnic group being strong enough to not allow other ethnic groups to dominate in the long run and being able seek its own path, hence, the Yugoslavia example. I think that Egypt will covertly provide support to the TPLF and OLF. All these liberation movements will have a new phase in their existence and become the second PKK.
It's predicted that Egypt's population will reach 225 millions by 2100 and there is no way Egypt is going to allow the GERD dam to be out of its reach.
Knowing that on one hand, Afwerki is Egypt's bıtch and and on another hand, the master of the Horn, I wonder how Eritrea fits into the Egyptian plans.
And this is what was posted today by @Django :
There is an understanding in the world that fresh water disputes have a potential to become a major source for conflicts in this century as opposed to the oil and gas.
There are three hot spots that can spiral out of control.
1. China-Indian dispute over the flow of Brahmaputra river along their border in Tibet
2. Turkey vs Iraq/Syria over dams built in the Tigris–Euphrates river system
3. Ethiopia vs Egypt/Sudan over Blue Nile GERD dam
China, Turkey and Ethiopia are damming the rivers with their own funds as international financial instruments have refused participate in them.
Ethiopia is spending $4.6 billions on the GERD. Turkey has put $32 billions of its own money in the series of dams on Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
Interestingly, after the Turks started building dams the Kurdish PKK terrorist group was created to wage war against Turkey.
It is presumed that the GERD dispute is likely to be the first to explode.
In the Arab media, namely in Egypt, a notion of Pan-Arabian response against the grab of fresh water resources by Ethiopia, Turkey, Israel and Iran is being cultivated. The recent Egyptian moves in Sudan and South Sudan are in line. The idea here is to destabilize Ethiopia the Balkan style by supporting guerilla movements and grab the dam intact from weakened Ethiopia.
Egypt and Sudan had their very first joint military exercises recently and also signed military contracts on joint manufacturing of small caliber arms and air defense systems. There were Egyptian Air force cargo planes photographed in Juba, South Sudan's capital. Presumably, Egypt delivered arms to South Sudan.
In short, Egypt is forming an Arab front in the region against Ethiopia. It is even trying to sideline the UAE and convince Saudi Arabia to join in as it was recently evidenced by the call of the Egyptian FM to his Saudi counter part.
Ethiopia has a very weak point of being multi-ethnic state with each major ethnic group being strong enough to not allow other ethnic groups to dominate in the long run and being able seek its own path, hence, the Yugoslavia example. I think that Egypt will covertly provide support to the TPLF and OLF. All these liberation movements will have a new phase in their existence and become the second PKK.
It's predicted that Egypt's population will reach 225 millions by 2100 and there is no way Egypt is going to allow the GERD dam to be out of its reach.
Knowing that on one hand, Afwerki is Egypt's bıtch and and on another hand, the master of the Horn, I wonder how Eritrea fits into the Egyptian plans.
And this is what was posted today by @Django :
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