http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Afr...maliland-Could-Trigger-Regional-Conflict.html
Your thoughts on this analysis? @Duke of Bohol @waraabe
Your thoughts on this analysis? @Duke of Bohol @waraabe
Geopolitical Timebomb: Chaos in Somaliland Could Trigger Regional Conflict
- Thread starter CaptainMajid
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Bohol
VIP
Interesting analysis. I agree with this.
"1. Moving Away From, Rather Than Towards, International Recognition: The abandonment, which began with the inauguration
of the Kulmiye Party Government on July 20, 2010, of the consistent path toward international recognition has led to a decline in
international credibility due to corruption and the fact that the Kulmiye Government has refused to conduct constitutionally-scheduled
elections.1 It has, in other words, clung to power illegally, something which probably would not have happened had Somaliland been
recognized by (and come under the ambit of) the African Union [witness the comparable attempt by the President of The Gambia,
Yahyah Jammeh to stay in office after being defeated in elections in late 2016]."
"1. Moving Away From, Rather Than Towards, International Recognition: The abandonment, which began with the inauguration
of the Kulmiye Party Government on July 20, 2010, of the consistent path toward international recognition has led to a decline in
international credibility due to corruption and the fact that the Kulmiye Government has refused to conduct constitutionally-scheduled
elections.1 It has, in other words, clung to power illegally, something which probably would not have happened had Somaliland been
recognized by (and come under the ambit of) the African Union [witness the comparable attempt by the President of The Gambia,
Yahyah Jammeh to stay in office after being defeated in elections in late 2016]."
Steamdevolopment
VIP
The most likely candidates to recognize Somaliland is Ethiopia and UAE as a part of the deal, and neither has. It seems they are hesitant as they face their own internal struggles and Ethiopia specifically face secessionist talks in key regions.
For key players that matter recognition will first come when the AU finds it useful and not harmful, and it defers to AMISOM who warn against balkanization.
For now the status qou will continue.
For key players that matter recognition will first come when the AU finds it useful and not harmful, and it defers to AMISOM who warn against balkanization.
For now the status qou will continue.
- Status
