These new estimates are fake. Puntland is a region known not only for faking banknotes, but also faking official reports, one of their ministers was caught copying a Somaliland report word for word and presenting it as a Puntland report.
The discrepancy in these new estimates is glaring. Just as an example, in 2005, Puntland region was reported as follows:
View attachment 163789
Bari (367,638)+ Nugaal (145,341) = 512,979 this is equivalent to
6.83% of the total population of the former Somali Republic.
In the 2014 report, the same area, Puntland region was reported as follows:
View attachment 163790
Bari (719,512) + Nugaal (392,698) = 1,112,210 or
9.02% of the population.
A % change of this magnitude is a statistical impossibility.
The percentage share of population rarely changes this dramatically intra-region. Besides, the desert region of Puntland went through very tough times between 2005 and 2014, its share of population has no way of increasing by such a huge margin naturally.
To illustrate this point, you can look at Kenyan census data:
In 2009, NFD made up 5.9% of the total Kenyan population.
In 2019, NFD made up 5.23% of the total Kenyan population.
The percentage of Kenyan population belonging to the NFD did not change all that much despite Somali Kenyans having the highest fertility rate there. So although general population figures may increase, the % share of population never changes this dramatically unless a calamity had befallen other regions.
This is why sticking to official census figures is key instead of relying on bogus NGO/UN figures, especially pertinent given Puntland region's track record.