Fourth rainy season in a row to fail

[Thegoodshepherd]

The 2017 deyr has failed and will not be sufficient for food production. Gu and deyr of 2016 failed, and so did the gu of 2017. With the failure of the 2017 deyr this means that it has been 4 rainy seasons since Somalia has had sufficient rainfall for any significant amount of food production.

Famine will almost certainly be in the offing in 2018 if the gu is not average or above average. 6 million Somalis are currently on life support in the form of food aid. I can't see the world donating $1.5 billion of aid each year.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Somalia_Seasonal_Monitor_11_2_2017.pdf

 

[World]

And I thought that climate change would increase rainfall in East Africa! 4 rainy seasons in a row? This is a catastrophy unheard of! Drought used to occur once every 10 years at most and even less than that 100 years ago.

 

[Deactivated]

These drought are a social blessing and curse since more and more people will move into urban regions to leave the nomadic lifestyle.

Geeljires are now bringing thier children to cities and in Puntland the social system onboards them by educating thier children and offering schooling to families.

The dryiest regions need creative administration that can shift people into growing drough resistant crops and techniques to reverse soil erosion.

We have lots of sunlight and plenty of the underground water. Nomads where selling thier camels for 1000$ a few years back and nobody has helped shift thier mindset into investing in micro farming.

Places like Puntland need to start Agricultural enboarding programs to teach people how to grow crops in this climate.

We cannot rely on the south for food supplies. Somalia has regions who can feed the rest of Somalia and subsidies cereals are making people very less and unwilling to increase productivity and efficiency in the bread basket.

Historically the we have had problems with making our Agro market profitable. Even Somalita produced bananas 3x the price of Caribbean bananas. Italians would subsidized our exports because of the interests tied to Somalia. Our willingness to not be productive and efficient has destroyed our farming outputs.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Somalia as a country is on life support. Look at all the exclamation marks.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SOMALIA Food Security_102017_0.pdf