Flailing State: The Resurgence of al-Shabaab in Somalia

[Thegoodshepherd]

https://warontherocks.com/2025/06/flailing-state-the-resurgence-of-al-shabaab-in-somalia/

 

[AbrahamFreedom]

The source of al-Shabaab’s resurgence has less to do with its military capacity than in its ability to govern...

While scholars have documented the group’s local governance structures and its manipulation of clan politics, much of the international policy discourse has remained fixated on military capabilities, territorial control, and counterterrorism metrics. This tends to obscure the importance of al-Shabaab’s careful management of local governance and clans, enabling the group to exploit local grievances and co-opt clan elders into running its taxation and governance systems. This creates both incentives for cooperation and a measure of local legitimacy.

In recent months, the group has ramped up a familiar tactic: negotiating local power-sharing agreements.

There are other signs that al-Shabaab has adjusted its public engagement strategy. In April, it lifted a nearly decade-long blockade in South West state, just before it reduced its force presence there to redeploy to the Shabelle region, closer to Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab has encouraged residents to remain in the areas that come under its control. Rather than forcibly displacing locals as the group has done in the past, al-Shabaab appears more willing to accommodate some local demands and soften its rules in order to maintain control and legitimacy.

Instead of routine bombings, al-Shabaab began carrying out less frequent but more symbolic, high-profile attacks aimed at undermining the government’s authority.

This terror group's higher ups is more competent, mature and emotionally intelligent than the rest of other Somali authorities and governments, and the locals. It's clear they are being advised and have more respect for the foreigners leading them.

Somalia will fall soon and that's even with continuation of allied support.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

This terror group's higher ups is more competent, mature and emotionally intelligent than the rest of other Somali authorities and governments, and the locals. It's clear they are being advised and have more respect for the foreigners leading them.

Somalia will fall soon and that's even with continuation of allied support.

Shabaab leadership is native and operates entirely independent from AQ.

 

[Medeea]

“ In April, it lifted a nearly decade-long blockade in South West state, just before it reduced its force presence there to redeploy to the Shabelle region”

They lifted the blockade because they’re stretched thin and running low on foot soldiers soldiers.
The way the writer phrased it made it sound like they were doing it out of the kindness of their hearts.

And they only started acting “nicer” in the last two years because HSM handed them a massive L on the ground, but more importantly financially.
If/once they regain power, they’ll go right back to their old ways.

Didn’t bother reading the rest. This is a nothingburger. Just some think tank trying to score more government funding.

 

[Riftvalley]

Shabaab leadership is native and operates entirely independent from AQ.

And most of them got killed by USA or Godane himself. Somalia isn’t really
Conducive to foreigners who don’t understand how to deal with clans

 

[El Nino]

”
Clan elders and others I spoke with from Adan Yabal and nearby areas recently retaken by al-Shabaab recounted a familiar pattern. Al-Shabaab had contacted them by phone, warning them of their return, and assuring them everything would be fine — so long as they complied.”

She has connections and the credentials. I usually skip foreign journalist regarding Somalia, they usually just regurgigate whatever someone else has said. No original input whatsover.



FGS has failed because of their incompetence and other malicious actions. The article highlights what has been known for years. FGS cannot guarantee the security of the people and the foot soldiers set up isbaaros robbing them. Shabaab will rob you but if someone else robs you, they will help you.

FGS needs to get it act together.

 

[Burqad]

you will never see as-shaytan celebrating Adwa like HSM does or stealing the graves of the poor, which is one point in those scums favor

 

[Keep it a boqol]

This terror group's higher ups is more competent, mature and emotionally intelligent than the rest of other Somali authorities and governments, and the locals. It's clear they are being advised and have more respect for the foreigners leading them.

Somalia will fall soon and that's even with continuation of allied support.

They def have more integrity than the current FGS which goes a long way.

FGS politicians just use the nation to make some cash and invest in somewhere else.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

And most of them got killed by USA or Godane himself. Somalia isn’t really
Conducive to foreigners who don’t understand how to deal with clans

bruh, The American guy that was having an one sided twitter beef with Godane was legendary.

 

[Burqad]

I

bruh, The American guy that was having one sided twitter beef with Godane was legendary.

That boy was tweeting even as he was gunned down.Im convinced he was killed because he was so annoying.

 

[Afrax]

“ In April, it lifted a nearly decade-long blockade in South West state, just before it reduced its force presence there to redeploy to the Shabelle region”

They lifted the blockade because they’re stretched thin and running low on foot soldiers soldiers.
The way the writer phrased it made it sound like they were doing it out of the kindness of their hearts.

And they only started acting “nicer” in the last two years because HSM handed them a massive L on the ground, but more importantly financially.
If/once they regain power, they’ll go right back to their old ways.

Didn’t bother reading the rest. This is a nothingburger. Just some think tank trying to score more government funding.

I found her 2021 article on Afghanistan to be highly informative, well-written, and densely packed with valuable insights. The article demonstrates either rigorous, well-grounded research or reflects her direct field experience and deep familiarity with Afghanistan’s historical developments. She provides detailed accounts of the key political actors, the agreements reached, and the sequence of events that reshaped the country’s political landscape.

Afghan Cities Become Key Battlegrounds – War on the Rocks

While Afghanistan has suffered from over three decades of unrelenting warfare, violence has primarily centered on its rural areas. Despite sporadic,

warontherocks.com

In contrast, her article on Somalia, while above average, does not match the quality or depth of her Afghanistan analysis. The tone and proposed solutions in the Somalia piece reveal slightly discernible bias, which is somewhat unexpected given her position as an external observer. This leads me to suspect that her conclusions are primarily derived from second-hand information. I appreciate that she has kept her whole article theoretical. Maybe due to subconscious awareness of her source or lack of field research? Well anyway I grow ever more convinced that the people of Southern Somalia are hindered by their reserved attitude towards foreigners and the absence of a substantial diaspora community.

I found it almost unbelievable that she attributed Somalia’s core problem to federal-level centralization. On the contrary, the issue lies in the excessive centralization within the Federal Member States (FMS), Which limits the endemic corruption of the FGS to affect only the regions it controls. The FGS in my opinion requires greater centralization, including full control over its borders and a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. That way everyone has vested interest to move away from 4.5 and to do something about the endemic corruption at the federal level.

But once again what do I know!

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

 

[Afrax]

”
Clan elders and others I spoke with from Adan Yabal and nearby areas recently retaken by al-Shabaab recounted a familiar pattern. Al-Shabaab had contacted them by phone, warning them of their return, and assuring them everything would be fine — so long as they complied.”

She has connections and the credentials. I usually skip foreign journalist regarding Somalia, they usually just regurgigate whatever someone else has said. No original input whatsover.



FGS has failed because of their incompetence and other malicious actions. The article highlights what has been known for years. FGS cannot guarantee the security of the people and the foot soldiers set up isbaaros robbing them. Shabaab will rob you but if someone else robs you, they will help you.

FGS needs to get it act together.

Yes, true!

May I ask why you consider the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to be so profoundly incompetent and rife with corruption?

 

[Kkkk]

Muuse biixi was the one who made sure no al shabaab attacking somaliland. Great leader which the so called “president of Somalia” more like mayor of Somalia can’t even make al shabaab not tax business let alone fight them

 

[FBIsomalia]

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I found her 2021 article on Afghanistan to be highly informative, well-written, and densely packed with valuable insights. The article demonstrates either rigorous, well-grounded research or reflects her direct field experience and deep familiarity with Afghanistan’s historical developments. She provides detailed accounts of the key political actors, the agreements reached, and the sequence of events that reshaped the country’s political landscape.


In contrast, her article on Somalia, while above average, does not match the quality or depth of her Afghanistan analysis. The tone and proposed solutions in the Somalia piece reveal slightly discernible bias, which is somewhat unexpected given her position as an external observer. This leads me to suspect that her conclusions are primarily derived from second-hand information. I appreciate that she has kept her whole article theoretical. Maybe due to subconscious awareness of her source or lack of field research? Well anyway I grow ever more convinced that the people of Southern Somalia are hindered by their reserved attitude towards foreigners and the absence of a substantial diaspora community.

I found it almost unbelievable that she attributed Somalia’s core problem to federal-level centralization. On the contrary, the issue lies in the excessive centralization within the Federal Member States (FMS), Which limits the endemic corruption of the FGS to affect only the regions it controls. The FGS in my opinion requires greater centralization, including full control over its borders and a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. That way everyone has vested interest to move away from 4.5 and to do something about the endemic corruption at the federal level.

But once again what do I know!

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

There are very few experts on Somali politics that are not Somali. The few Somali experts we have who are capable of the kind of analysis needed, like Harun Maruf, are hated and trolled. There is very little analysis of Alshabab's goals and the FGS' plans to counter Al Shabab. The FGS often does something, there is no explanation for it and you are left wondering if saboteurs are at work inside the FGS.

Regarding your point on the FGS and Somali needed to recentralize, I think that ship sailed 35 years ago. When the USC cleansed all non-Hawiye out of Xamar, it permanently removed the possibility of a centralized Somalia. Federalism is the best we can hope for.

 

[Burqad]

Shabaab leadership is native and operates entirely independent from AQ.

True. They’d be less insane if they were actually an AQC branch.

 

[Medeea]

”
Clan elders and others I spoke with from Adan Yabal and nearby areas recently retaken by al-Shabaab recounted a familiar pattern. Al-Shabaab had contacted them by phone, warning them of their return, and assuring them everything would be fine — so long as they complied.”

She has connections and the credentials. I usually skip foreign journalist regarding Somalia, they usually just regurgigate whatever someone else has said. No original input whatsover.



FGS has failed because of their incompetence and other malicious actions. The article highlights what has been known for years. FGS cannot guarantee the security of the people and the foot soldiers set up isbaaros robbing them. Shabaab will rob you but if someone else robs you, they will help you.

FGS needs to get it act together.

FGS may be incompetent but I know for sure that FGS officials don’t ask for your 15 year old daughter/sister, and if you refuse, send a suicide bomber to your house.
Nor does FGS take half of farmer’s crops by force. Not even the warlords used to do sht like that.

I found her 2021 article on Afghanistan to be highly informative, well-written, and densely packed with valuable insights. The article demonstrates either rigorous, well-grounded research or reflects her direct field experience and deep familiarity with Afghanistan’s historical developments. She provides detailed accounts of the key political actors, the agreements reached, and the sequence of events that reshaped the country’s political landscape.


In contrast, her article on Somalia, while above average, does not match the quality or depth of her Afghanistan analysis. The tone and proposed solutions in the Somalia piece reveal slightly discernible bias, which is somewhat unexpected given her position as an external observer. This leads me to suspect that her conclusions are primarily derived from second-hand information. I appreciate that she has kept her whole article theoretical. Maybe due to subconscious awareness of her source or lack of field research? Well anyway I grow ever more convinced that the people of Southern Somalia are hindered by their reserved attitude towards foreigners and the absence of a substantial diaspora community.

You’re right about the money. Their sources are second-hand, and most likely not even from people living in AS-held areas. They must be talking darods FKDs as a reliable source lol

I found it almost unbelievable that she attributed Somalia’s core problem to federal-level centralization. On the contrary, the issue lies in the excessive centralization within the Federal Member States (FMS), Which limits the endemic corruption of the FGS to affect only the regions it controls. The FGS in my opinion requires greater centralization, including full control over its borders and a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. That way everyone has vested interest to move away from 4.5 and to do something about the endemic corruption at the federal level.

But once again what do I know!

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

I didn’t read the article, but I laugh at anyone blaming FGS for centralization. Both Madoobe and LG use AS as a shielD. Not just against Xamar, but even against clans within JL and SWS. Even PL elites keep a few hundred terrorists in the mountains just to get more aid. A quick 20-minute search will confirm all this.

Current Somalia functions like a confederation. Blaming Xamar or “centralism” instead of the FMS and the confederation system is either delusional or outright malicious.

There are very few experts on Somali politics that are not Somali. The few Somali experts we have who are capable of the kind of analysis needed, like Harun Maruf, are hated and trolled. There is very little analysis of Alshabab's goals and the FGS' plans to counter Al Shabab. The FGS often does something, there is no explanation for it and you are left wondering if saboteurs are at work inside the FGS.

Harun Maruf has his biases too. Sometimes he comes off like a war profiteer. I could be wrong tho.

AS’s goals are clear. Unlike the Taliban or Houthis, who are more family/tribal and respect borders, AS are global jihadists who ignore clan/ethnicity/ national borders altogether.

HSM’s strategy largely worked. He choked their finances. They’re not bombing weekly like before, not because they got nicer, but because they’re broke and short on fighters. Their latest offensive is already stalling, even reversing in some areas. The question now is, how long can they sustain it, especially if FGS launches a full counterattack?
The only thing is see HSM lacking is, the propaganda and ideology front. As long as salafism/wahabism maintain their grip in the Somali society, the likes of AS will always exist in one form or another.

Regarding your point on the FGS and Somali needed to recentralize, I think that ship sailed 35 years ago. When the USC cleansed all non-Hawiye out of Xamar, it permanently removed the possibility of a centralized Somalia. Federalism is the best we can hope for.

And who started the unprovoked clan cleansing in Mudug? Don’t believe me? Read the FBI files. I’m not defending what some sacads or XL did, but the blame lies with those who started it.

And No one’s dying to rule a PL. It way too hot for short visits. Yall should stay in yall region and stop sabotaging state building. It’s really not that hard.