FANO has began creating Woreda level governance in it's captured territory, ONLF is (likely) going to resume armed struggle

[Mohamedamiin120]

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

Did Abiy fail to defeat Amhara, or are they just saying hot air?

 

[SpaceyCadet]

Did Abiy fail to defeat Amhara, or are they just saying hot air?

Abyi can’t defeat them. They live right with the civilian population and have major support (they wouldn’t be able to conduct any of these operations otherwise)

But this also a weakness too until they begin to legitimise their efforts. Governance is one way to stop this fragmented rag tag operation, plus the new toys their getting from who knows.

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

Abyi can’t defeat them. They live right with the civilian population and have major support (they wouldn’t be able to conduct any of these operations otherwise)

But this also a weakness too until they begin to legitimise their efforts. Governance is one way to stop this fragmented rag tag operation, plus the new toys their getting from who knows.

I have no proof of this but I believe they are getting these arms from Sudan-based arms dealers.

1) They hold total control the majority of the Sudan-Amhara region border.

2) There exists a region of Amharic majority west of the Sudan-Amhara border, most concentrated in the Al-Fushqa district of Al-Qadarif state. This is a place where they can expect to find support.

3) There is a large number of non-state arms dealers in Sudan where they can purchase weapons, additonally the number of arms (both light and heavy) as well as ammunition flowing in the country has increased astronomically since the start of the Sudanese civil war.

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

I have no proof of this but I believe they are getting these arms from Sudan-based arms dealers.

1) They hold total control the majority of the Sudan-Amhara region border.

2) There exists a region of Amharic majority west of the Sudan-Amhara border, most concentrated in the Al-Fushqa district of Al-Qadarif state. This is a place where they can expect to find support.

3) There is a large number of non-state arms dealers in Sudan where they can purchase weapons, additonally the number of arms (both light and heavy) as well as ammunition flowing in the country has increased astronomically since the start of the Sudanese civil war.

RSF shaytan?

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

RSF shaytan?

Not likely, the RSF has never had any presence on the Sudan-Amhara region border. Additionally I do not envision them getting arms from the SPLM as they want feudalism for their brothers across in Beninshungal-Gomuz and Gambela.

Probably just independent arms dealers doing this. Possibly even corrupt SAF officers.

 

[SpaceyCadet]

Not likely, the RSF has never had any presence on the Sudan-Amhara region border. Additionally I do not envision them getting arms from the SPLM as they want feudalism for their brothers across in Beninshungal-Gomuz and Gambela.

Probably just independent arms dealers doing this. Possibly even corrupt SAF officers.

it would be interesting if this is an escalation by the egypt/eritrea/and sudan faction but unfortunately egyptians wa langaab

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

it would be interesting if this is an escalation by the egypt/eritrea/and sudan faction but unfortunately egyptians wa langaab

Egypt and Sudan might be supporting FANO in the future. The Ethiopians are using the dam as a weapon to harm Egypt and Sudan via 'discharges'.

Already a few Sudanese towns are under the water.

Egypt prepared for massive GERD water discharge, warns of delta flooding - Egypt Independent

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated that Egypt had prepared its plans to receive the huge volumes of water coming from Ethiopia, anticipating the official opening of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the substantial storage of water by the latter. Speaking at a press...

egyptindependent.com

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/142632/Egypt-underlines-%E2%80%98primary-safeguard%E2%80%99-amid-Nile-fluctuations-slams-Ethiopia%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98reckless%E2%80%99

 

[NidarNidar]

I have no proof of this but I believe they are getting these arms from Sudan-based arms dealers.

1) They hold total control the majority of the Sudan-Amhara region border.

2) There exists a region of Amharic majority west of the Sudan-Amhara border, most concentrated in the Al-Fushqa district of Al-Qadarif state. This is a place where they can expect to find support.

3) There is a large number of non-state arms dealers in Sudan where they can purchase weapons, additonally the number of arms (both light and heavy) as well as ammunition flowing in the country has increased astronomically since the start of the Sudanese civil war.

Abiy will never control the North, I am for the liberty of them tiny midgets! They have every right to self-govern and protect their land.