Ethiopia Parliament officially rejects upcoming Tigrey election
- Thread starter kickz
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@kickz
Amhara policy makers are very irrational they want war.They have a hawkish tenancy to rule Ethiopia with an iron fist.
What they dont understand is this is not the 1800s where they used the west to cry for help against muslims.
In the event of war the West will side with neither group and Amhara are known for being cowards.
Abye and his group know the full capacity of TPLF as he was worked before in the Intelligence sector.He knows Tigray has enough arsenal to smash The Ethiopian army.TPLF is not like Liyu Polis or Abdi Iley.
Let's say Abye becomes successful and crushes TPLF in a conventional warfare (which is very impossible) this means TPLF will regroup and become a guerilla resistance and means Ethiopian military will be bogged down in Tigray this will be very costly to the Ethiopian economy.Tigray region is very mountainous.
So I am happy that both the two evils.in Ethiopia I.e Amhara and Tigray will destroy each other.In the even of war TPLF will destroy the Amhara region and send them back to stone age this is the advantage the Tigray have as they neighbour Amhara.
Amhara are like kids they live in a cocoon of their lost glory.They think they will.magically transform back to Menelik time and make Amhara great again.
That is why Somalia needs a fresh leader not one that bends its knee to a dying regime in Addis Ababa.
Amhara policy makers are very irrational they want war.They have a hawkish tenancy to rule Ethiopia with an iron fist.
What they dont understand is this is not the 1800s where they used the west to cry for help against muslims.
In the event of war the West will side with neither group and Amhara are known for being cowards.
Abye and his group know the full capacity of TPLF as he was worked before in the Intelligence sector.He knows Tigray has enough arsenal to smash The Ethiopian army.TPLF is not like Liyu Polis or Abdi Iley.
Let's say Abye becomes successful and crushes TPLF in a conventional warfare (which is very impossible) this means TPLF will regroup and become a guerilla resistance and means Ethiopian military will be bogged down in Tigray this will be very costly to the Ethiopian economy.Tigray region is very mountainous.
So I am happy that both the two evils.in Ethiopia I.e Amhara and Tigray will destroy each other.In the even of war TPLF will destroy the Amhara region and send them back to stone age this is the advantage the Tigray have as they neighbour Amhara.
Amhara are like kids they live in a cocoon of their lost glory.They think they will.magically transform back to Menelik time and make Amhara great again.
That is why Somalia needs a fresh leader not one that bends its knee to a dying regime in Addis Ababa.
I wonder if Cagjar will send forces to battle in this.
In any case let them fight, this could be the formation of 3/4 new countries in the horn.
Saxib you cant use AK 47 to fight a group that has jet fighters and tanks.
Tigray have close to a million fighters consisting of well trained men and women.
I know Cagjar will try send Liyu Polis but they will be annihilated.
As for Erhiopian military they consist of different ethnic groups and they wouldn't fight Tigray with the same passion they are fight an enemy.Tigray liberated them from Amhara abuse.
They might disintegrate into ethnic bantustants and make it easy for Tigray to target Amhara fighters.
Ethiopia is at a cross road.
I hear the drums of war
may allah turn the Habeshas against eachother
May allah free his cushites
may allah turn the Habeshas against eachother
May allah free his cushites
This war will become a war between
Amhara+Oromo Christian's vs Tigray
Eritrean Tigrinya will side with Tigray.
I have spoken to alot of Eritreans and most of them do like Meles more than Afaworki.
So this shows that Tigray and Eritrea have zero animosity towards each other.
Oromos are on a united front
And not religiously segregated
Interesting. We shall see if the tplf are all talk or if they can back it up with force.
Also for a democratic country, ethiopia does not allow referendums for article 39 to take place. I wonder if tigray really want to secede or if they are trying to just take power from amhara.
Also for a democratic country, ethiopia does not allow referendums for article 39 to take place. I wonder if tigray really want to secede or if they are trying to just take power from amhara.
TPLF want Abye to press the trigger and make the first shot.
They have been in govt and also been rebel group.
Abye and his Amhara cohorts have never seen blood let alone having missed a meal.
Tigray could maybe fend off an attack from the fed but at what cost? They are completely intertwined and dependent on Ethiopia. Never did the little mongrels called TPLF ever think there would come a time where they were out of power.
Tigrays geography is perfect for defense against a large invader they also have decent amount of infrastructure and weaponry they can probably field around 100K soldiers. Neither side has much to gain from this Abiy will posture against it and punish them economically his only option right now is the long game. Who knows though Africans are peculiar specimens it could really go either way.
My advice to Somalis stop focusing on Ethiopia and wishing for an african world war its not in anyone’s interest to start a civil war only Somali cawaans could do something like that Ethiopians wont go so far.
Tigrays geography is perfect for defense against a large invader they also have decent amount of infrastructure and weaponry they can probably field around 100K soldiers. Neither side has much to gain from this Abiy will posture against it and punish them economically his only option right now is the long game. Who knows though Africans are peculiar specimens it could really go either way.
My advice to Somalis stop focusing on Ethiopia and wishing for an african world war its not in anyone’s interest to start a civil war only Somali cawaans could do something like that Ethiopians wont go so far.
Did you just say "Million fighters"?!! That's an over exaggeration tbh, their army could be 50k or maximum 100k including the reserves but not more than that.
Do you know Eritrea with same population or less than Tigray did field a million fighters to counter Ethiopians in 1998?
The more people are threatened the bigger their ability to be resolute.
This will likely become financial sanctions no fighting, Tigrays would love for Abiye to fire the first bullet so they can get back their control they had the last 30 years.
Eritrean active forces in that war was 46k and it became 200k when they called their reserves. Eritrean population is twice that of Tigray region. It's illogical and statistically impossible for the Tigray region to assemble a Million fighters considering their measley population size of 7 million. C'moon bro, let's be realistic.
Abdi ilay got locked up for something much smaller! Lesson? Power is taken not given! If cagjar was trying this the bastard abiy wouldnt think twice before deployig federal soldiers to jigjiga and killing hundreds before arresting cagjar but he cant do this to the tigres because the tigres are real people who arent miskiin like us somali.
FURTHER INSTABILITES
Tigrays vs Ethiopia, who wins.
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