Ethiopia and Eritrea Sent troops respectively to the border between them

[Pastoralist]

What is the point of their Islam here? Any ethio footsoldier is disgraceful, whether they are muslims or not.

It’s a mixed bag. No Muslim feels right siding with galo while muslims are on the opposing side.

edit: Quoted the wrong guy

 

[Internet Nomad]

It’s a mixed bag. No Muslim feels right siding with galo while muslims are on the opposing side.

edit: Quoted the wrong guy

I was so confused i was thinking when did i write that

 

[Haragwaafi]

If there's a war there won't be Fano as Amhara people are really nationalists and nostalgic of old Ethiopia that had sea access to the red sea which again could save the political image of Abiy Ahmed with this nationalist irredentist rhetoric

 

[GaradShabeel]

Abiy can send his troops. With the shape the ENDF is in right now, virtually no chance of them winning any sort of conflict.

Eritrea is about to have a lot of galla corpses to use as fertilizer

Forget about ENDF, who in Ethiopia would would support such a war?

Amharas won’t participate, neither will Somalis. I have a hard time seeing Afars do, unless Eritrean Afars come out against Eritrea. Tigrayans are anti-Eritrea, they may cheer from the sideline, but won’t be active at the front. Oromos are divided, some standing with Abiy, while others supporting OLA.

To sum it up, a war with Eritrea will lead to a weakening of the federal government and could be the end of Abiy in power.

 

[Haragwaafi]

Saho and afar are already pro Ethiopia, they want self determination, note that they live near Assab Port.

Saho are pro Eritrea and they never and you won't expect from them to ever be against Eritrea so please don't say things you don't quiet understand sxb

 

[Haragwaafi]

Forget about ENDF, who in Ethiopia would would support such a war?

Amharas won’t participate, neither will Somalis. I have a hard time seeing Afars do, unless Eritrean Afars come out against Eritrea. Tigrayans are anti-Eritrea, they may cheer from the sideline, but won’t be active at the front. Oromos are divided, some standing with Abiy, while others supporting OLA.

To sum it up, a war with Eritrea will lead to a weakening of the federal government and could be the end of Abiy in power.

Amhara Oromo and Woyanas would participate with each group for their own reasons but share the same goal and that's having access to the sea

 

[Aurelian]

Saho are pro Eritrea and they never and you won't expect from them to ever be against Eritrea so please don't say things you don't quiet understand sxb

haye, let's see what gonna happen

 

[GaradShabeel]

Amhara Oromo and Woyanas would participate with each group for their own reasons but share the same goal and that's having access to the sea

Everyone surely has their own interest, but do they trust Abiy?

The sole reason for FANO’s (and most Amharas) participation of Tigray war was because they were supposedly promised Welkait/western Tigray by Abiy. What has that lead to?

It did not come into fruition with annexation into the Amhara region, but also lead to their current war against his government.

Tigrayans have a vast interest compared to most Ethiopians, but they don’t want to be used as canon fodders after loosing many of their comrades in the recent war. And previous Eri-Eth wars without gaining anything in return.

Oromos are Abiy’s main support base and would also make up majority of his forces if a war occurred. Most of the recently appointed military generals are Oromos after all for a reason.

 

[Haragwaafi]

Everyone surely has their own interest, but do they trust Abiy?

The sole reason for FANO’s (and most Amharas) participation of Tigray war was because they were supposedly promised Welkait and Raya by Abiy. What has that lead to?

It did not come into fruition with annexation into the Amhara region, but also lead to their current war against his government.

Tigrayans have a vast interest compared to most Ethiopians, but they don’t want to be used as canon fodders after loosing many of their comrades in the recent war. And previous Eri-Eth wars without gaining anything in return.

Oromos are Abiy’s main support base and would also make up majority of his forces if a war occurred. Most of the recently appointed military generals are Oromos after all for a reason.

Woyanas could join so they can get their revenge

 

[GaradShabeel]

Woyanas could join so they can get their revenge

True. I think they’ll try to get in behind the scene and use other Ethiopians to do their dirty works. Maybe even take advantage of the desperate Abiy as ‘allies’ in the short run and turn on him once their objectives are met

 

[Haragwaafi]

haye, let's see what gonna happen

Osman Sabbe the man who brought Eritrean struggle to the world's attention from his office in Mogadishu was a Saho

 

[dekiteshim]

If there's a war there won't be Fano as Amhara people are really nationalists and nostalgic of old Ethiopia that had sea access to the red sea which again could save the political image of Abiy Ahmed with this nationalist irredentist rhetoric

 

[dekiteshim]

I doubt Woyane will get involved. The TDF has been thoroughly buckbroken. Amharas are under the thumb of Afwerki at the moment as Isu is the one arming Fano. Only way I can see either of those groups joining is if the ENDF somehow breaks through and looks like they’re about to win.

 

[Haragwaafi]

View attachment 300181

Don't underestimate Abiy's Machiavellian political approach as he could rally up Amharas sentiment by calling Fano traitors for siding with Eritrea

 

[Aurelian]

I doubt Woyane will get involved. The TDF has been thoroughly buckbroken. Amharas are under the thumb of Afwerki at the moment as Isu is the one arming Fano. Only way I can see either of those groups joining is if the ENDF somehow breaks through and looks like they’re about to win.

Isu?

 

[Haragwaafi]

Isu?

 

[Burqad]

Ethiopian nationalism is in the grave and even a snake handling pentay like abiy doesn’t believe in raising the dead. If he attacks Eritrea he will be hanging in the streets.

 

[dekiteshim]

Some Eritrean opposition anti Afwerki are already in talks with Ethiopians. They are diaspora based political groups and orgs.

“Eritrean”. At least before you could make the case that these opposition groups were headed by Eritreans but the fact that they support an invasion by Abiy is very telling

 

[Gaandheri]

I doubt Woyane will get involved. The TDF has been thoroughly buckbroken. Amharas are under the thumb of Afwerki at the moment as Isu is the one arming Fano. Only way I can see either of those groups joining is if the ENDF somehow breaks through and looks like they’re about to win.

What is Isaias Afwerki’s goals in the Horn of Africa does he want to Balkanize Ethiopia, be the kingmaker of this region or something else?

 

[Zkr]

I doubt it would happen as if this war happens then Ethiopia will undoubtedly collapse. They are not in a good position to go into war right now.