Essential analysis: Can Somalia’s New Offensive Defeat al-Shabaab

[MOEMONEY]

Abstract: There are reasons to be optimistic that the current Somali offensive against al-Shabaab could enduringly weaken the group. The operations have gained momentum and demonstrated that the Somali army has made large improvements over the last decade. The use of local clan militias as well as U.S. and Turkish drone support have acted as force multipliers, and the Somali government is finally making a concerted effort to go after al-Shabaab’s income generation. However, several factors should temper this optimism. Al-Shabaab has been defeated on the battlefield in the past and has reemerged as a strong actor. What will be key is to erode al-Shabaab’s ability to infiltrate government-controlled areas and to govern, tax, and implement ‘justice’ in these areas. In the past, this has been crucial to al-Shabaab resilience and income. Accordingly, there needs to be more focus on a ‘clear and hold’ strategy rather than just ‘search and destroy.’ In the long-run, there are several additional factors that will determine whether al-Shabaab can be definitively defeated. One factor will be the degree to which counterinsurgency operations can be extended from central Somalia into al-Shabaab’s southern strongholds. An additional factor will be the degree to which the Somali police can protect ordinary Somalis and businesses from being extorted by al-Shabaab. Another factor will be finding a way to continue to mobilize clan militias against the terrorists without creating the sort of clan rivalries and fragmentation and militarization of society that allowed al-Shabaab to emerge in the first place.

Can Somalia’s New Offensive Defeat al-Shabaab – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point

Abstract: There are reasons to be optimistic that the current Somali offensive against al-Shabaab could enduringly weaken the group. The operations have gained momentum and demonstrated that the Somali army has made large improvements over the last decade. The use of local clan militias as well...

ctc.westpoint.edu

 

[Rocktheboat]

I agree. After they are defeated militarily, we need more police officers that communities can trust!