Do you think Shabab will take over the south and when? I believe the FGS will never win a fight with Shabab until they take it seriously. They are playing cat and mouse, and one of them needs to succeed.
Do you belive shabab will take the south?
- Thread starter Wild daisy 💐🌻💮
- Start date
If they did that'd spell trouble. Unless the FGS weakens politically or ATMIS fully withdraws without a strong military, Al-Shabab could expand its influence, Though, Full Control, still remains Doubtful.
They control large chunks of the south and they’re able to exert authority in FGS controlled areas. All of that wouldn’t be possible if they didn’t enjoy support amongst the local people there.
They govern efficiently compared to FGS. They got no tribalism. Even SL isn’t able to tune down tribalism. Whole Somalia is impossible. But if FGS continues on this corrupted ways that they’ve been for 19+ years. AS will takeover definetly. Shacab are getting tired of this useless government.
EritreanPost_
Inactive
FGS don't have a strong air force and artillery because they refuse to have good relations with Africa largest arms supplier like Russia and China.
Al Shabab is like cartel in Somalia, they have an underground network with spies and tax collectors.
The Somali army need to be strengthened, peace deal with AS shouldn't be avoided
or option to put a hard embargo on AS controlled territories like Ethiopia did to TPLF to prevent fuel, money and weapons to get in their territory
Al Shabab is like cartel in Somalia, they have an underground network with spies and tax collectors.
The Somali army need to be strengthened, peace deal with AS shouldn't be avoided
or option to put a hard embargo on AS controlled territories like Ethiopia did to TPLF to prevent fuel, money and weapons to get in their territory
Maybe. Its going to be very difficult for Shabab to take over all of the south since they number at 7000-12000 troops and are pretty much rejected by most Somalis. People forget that AS is very weak nowadays compared to how they were in the early 2010s.
Of course FGS can't do anything against AS either so we will likely continue seeing a stalemate and more tug of war stuff.
Of course FGS can't do anything against AS either so we will likely continue seeing a stalemate and more tug of war stuff.
Somalia should go from pro-west to pro-east. But then i guess they wouldn’t be getting free aid.
This all changes when FGS gets oil revenue. They should keep minimum stalemate. But very best keep the fronts open. Until they start drilling for oil. If HSM had any brain he would do what madobe wanted. To open up fronts everywhere. AS should be on the defensive constantly. Huge fronts should be opened. They should even try bombing some parts of Jilib. To make them stressed. Everything should be used on warfares
Just hope HSM doesn't try to extend. That is the worst thing that can happen.
I don't want to be a pessimist but the FGS has been eating international donors money for decades , what makes you think that oil money won't be mismanaged and stolen through corruption as well? Our problem isn't money , it's management
Vacelere
Wisdom-Honor-Might
I believe yes they will after trump cut the USAID program which j have a strong feeling that AS used to take money from in some way or another they will march to take the south to fill this economic void by taxing people.
And let's be honest the south now is in his worst situation since the start of the civil war.
So if I was AS leader (Astagfurullah) I would take this opportunity.
And let's be honest the south now is in his worst situation since the start of the civil war.
So if I was AS leader (Astagfurullah) I would take this opportunity.
Yeah when intl support ends Al shabaab will takeover so quick like Afghanistan and all these leaders will stuff their bags with cash and flee to Dubai and Nairobi.
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