(DERAILMENT) OFFICIAL SOMALILAND ELECTIONS 2021 THREAD

[Thegoodshepherd]

In other words Suugo science. Your data in no way separates out Isaaq from Dhulbahante. Any clan based conclusions from the data you looked at is pure fabrication on your part.

Additionally, the data itself is one you have repeatedly debunked yourself.

Give it up dude. Your fantasy has no basis in reality. There is nothing backing up your hope that you'll "outbreed" us. You want "your" Harti lands back, you are going to have to grow some balls and take it back by force.

MSB already separated Isaaq from Dhulbahante when he drew the boundries of Caynabo and Buhoodle. These are upwards of 90% homogenous districts that basically balance each other for statistical purposes.

There will be no war because the US, UK & EU have probably already run these numbers and decided not to grant recognition.

Harti will just grow so big, Isaaq will simply not contemplate conflict. Why do you think Reer Isaaq and Garxajis no longer fight? Reer Isaaq have simply become too large.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

MSB already separated Isaaq from Dhulbahante when he drew the boundries of Caynabo and Buhoodle. These are upwards of 90% homogenous districts that basically balance each other for statistical purposes.

There will be no war because the US, UK & EU have probably already run these numbers and decided not to grant recognition.

Harti will just grow so big, Isaaq will simply not contemplate conflict. Why do you think Reer Isaaq and Garxajis no longer fight? Reer Isaaq have simply become too large.

I repeat.

Your data in no way separates out Isaaq from Dhulbahante.

Your PL suugo science isn't going make it so.

It does amuse me in how many different ways reer PL can say they don't have the stomach or the balls to fight when it comes down to it. Now they are making up fantasies to run away from that fact.

 

[Gadhwayne]

There are 2 flaws in your thinking


#1

The closes thing we have to an actual clan census are colonial era estimates and Afweyne counts that showed that the former Migiurtinia had extremely low population count. There is one other proxy for clan populations:

1960 election. The 2 Isaaq parties had about 80% of the vote. The USP coalition of northernJabarti/northernIrir had about 20%

How did you extrapolate Isaaq 80% in 1960 to whatever figures you just made up


#2
Afweyne regime subsidized Daaroodism ideology. He rewarded Dhulbahante with cuqdad. The earlier Dhulbahante generations misled by Afweyne continue to decrease. The younger generations have lived under JSL democracy ever since CabdillahiYuusuf left Migiurtinia province so he could be the lead cheerleader for the TPLF occupation of Muqdisho.

MaashaAllah Dhulbahante children will benefit from a curriculum that promotes democracy-under-Somaaliland curriculum.

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[Gadhwayne]

Also this.

@Thegoodshepherd arguement is tainted by irrational Daaroodism ideology

There are 2 flaws in his thinking. Both flaws emanate from a blindspot that is probably caused by his strong belief in the Daaroodism ideology


#1

The closes thing we have to an actual clan census are colonial era estimates and Afweyne counts that showed that the former Migiurtinia had extremely low population count. There is one other proxy for clan populations:

1960 election. The 2 Isaaq parties had about 80% of the vote. The USP coalition of northernJabarti/northernIrir had about 20%

How did you extrapolate Isaaq 80% in 1960 to whatever figures he just made up


#2
Afweyne regime subsidized Daaroodism ideology. He rewarded Dhulbahante with cuqdad. The earlier Dhulbahante generations misled by Afweyne continue to decrease. The younger generations have lived under JSL democracy ever since CabdillahiYuusuf left Migiurtinia province so he could be the lead cheerleader for the TPLF occupation of Muqdisho.

MaashaAllah Dhulbahante children will benefit from a curriculum that promotes democracy-under-Somaaliland curriculum. assuming under 20 are a majorityThe majority of Dhulbahante have only went to school under Somaaliland flag.

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[Thegoodshepherd]

I repeat.

Your data in no way separates out Isaaq from Dhulbahante.

Your PL suugo science isn't going make it so.

It does amuse me in how many different ways reer PL can say they don't have the stomach or the balls to fight when it comes down to it. Now they are making up fantasies to run away from that fact.

In 1950 the population of Hawiye from the outskirts of Mogadishu to Galkacyo was double that of MJ, so my grandfather slept with a shotgun while living as far north as Burtinle. Today MJ is as big as the Hawiye outside of Mogadishu, and they bring us their criminals to prosecute.

There was no war, no decisive battle. The HG have simply stopped any attempt at a military solution to the problem of Mudug. They got a sense that MJ was now a significantly larger clan and adjusted their behavior.

Something similar to this has already taken place in Hawd between the Ogaden and Isaaq. The Isaaq have gotten a sense that the Ogaden are now much larger than they are, so they have slowly pulled back north over the past 30 years. Away from Danood into Gaashaamo, away from Awaare to Daroor.


When the Dhulbahante are larger than Habar Magadle, you won't want to go to war.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

In 1950 the population of Hawiye from the outskirts of Mogadishu to Galkacyo was double that of MJ, so my grandfather slept with a shotgun while living as far north as Burtinle. Today MJ is as big as the Hawiye outside of Mogadishu, and they bring us their criminals to prosecute.

There was no war, no decisive battle. The HG have simply stopped any attempt at a military solution to the problem of Mudug. They got a sense that MJ was now a significantly larger clan and adjusted their behavior.

Something similar to this has already taken place in Hawd between the Ogaden and Isaaq. The Isaaq have gotten a sense that the Ogaden are now much larger than they are, so they have slowly pulled back north over the past 30 years. Away from Danood into Gaashaamo, away from Awaare to Daroor.


When the Dhulbahante are larger than Habar Magadle, you won't want to go to war.

Time and time again we bust you for the fake data you use and the bullshit you spread. Stop embarrassing yourself.

All actual clan census data ever taken shows that MJ have an extreme low population. That same data always shows that Isaaq is significantly larger than the Harti. That is the reality that you are constantly trying to run from.

Also, Isaaq remains larger than Ogaden in Hawd. So your nonesense story is again something you've pulled from your rear end.

Nothing you ever say about any of these matters is ever grounded in fact, just your failed and deluded Daroodist fantasty.

With that i'll stop derailing this thread, which should be about Somaliland elections, and stop engaging in the deluded fantasies you concoct because you don't have the balls to fight.

 

[Gantaal97]

For all practical purposes, I assume Buhoodle and Caynabo cancel out. Sool is a Dhulbahante state and Togdheer is an Isaaq state.

A summary of the dynamic:

1- Two ethnic groups have a fairly stable ratio, for example Kikuyu are 2x the size of the Kalenjin.

2- One ethnic group begins to urbanize, get literate, begin demographic transition, the other remains at natural fertility.

3- Ratio stays the same for a while (about 10 to 15 years) due to demographic inertia.

4- Ratio begins to change exponentially as growth rates begin to diverge. Kalenjin are ~50% the size of Kikuyu in 1979, only 55% in 1989, and then jump to ~80% the size of Kikuyu in 2019, 30 years later.


The convergence between the Kalenjin and Kikuyu is considered extremely fast by demographers. The convergence between the Dhulbahante (Sool) and Isaaq (Togdheer&Woqoyie Galbeed) is about 2.4x faster than what happened in Kenya. Unheard of rate of convergence between ethnic groups.

I will write up a thread on this tomorrow if I have time.

Dude you don't know anything about the demographic in Somaliland. Half of Sool population is isaaq primarily HJ who live in Aynaba district in western Sool that's why your state claims half of the region where Dhulbahante mainly reside and also there hasn't been a real census conducted in Somaliland or Somalia for the last 40 years

 

[Gantaal97]

In 1950 the population of Hawiye from the outskirts of Mogadishu to Galkacyo was double that of MJ, so my grandfather slept with a shotgun while living as far north as Burtinle. Today MJ is as big as the Hawiye outside of Mogadishu, and they bring us their criminals to prosecute.

There was no war, no decisive battle. The HG have simply stopped any attempt at a military solution to the problem of Mudug. They got a sense that MJ was now a significantly larger clan and adjusted their behavior.

Something similar to this has already taken place in Hawd between the Ogaden and Isaaq. The Isaaq have gotten a sense that the Ogaden are now much larger than they are, so they have slowly pulled back north over the past 30 years. Away from Danood into Gaashaamo, away from Awaare to Daroor.


When the Dhulbahante are larger than Habar Magadle, you won't want to go to war.

You just making bs at this point buuqlander Hawd is still a isaaq majority region we took it from cagdheer through wars and lands that somali clans acquired can't be taken away as it belongs to one of isaaq sub clans mainly GX and I have been in Hawd several times when visiting my family members in Ethiopia

 

[Bo$$man]

Dude you don't know anything about the demographic in Somaliland. Half of Sool population is isaaq primarily HJ who live in Aynaba district in western Sool that's why your state claims half of the region where Dhulbahante mainly reside and also there hasn't been a real census conducted in Somaliland or Somalia for the last 40 years

Sool is 85% Dhulbahante so might argue even more. I've travelled through Aynaba district many times as some of my HJ reer abti live there and anyone who has travelled around Sool can confirm even HJs.

 

[Gantaal97]

Sool is 85% Dhulbahante so might argue even more. I've travelled through Aynaba district many times as some of my HJ reer abti live there and anyone who has travelled around Sool can confirm even HJs.

Dhulbahante own more lands in sool but that doesn't translate into population numbers I would say it's 60% Dhulbahante while 40% is HJ/HY

 

[Bo$$man]

Dhulbahante own more lands in sool but that doesn't translate into population numbers I would say it's 60% Dhulbahante while 40% is HJ/HY

Where do these HJ/HY live that gives them those populations? The biggest Isaaq town is Ainabo and it's relatively small. Most of the district is empty too. Dhulbahante also live in the Ainabo district whereas, HJ barely live in the other 3 districts.

A census is needed in the region.

 

[Gantaal97]

Where do these HJ/HY live that gives them those populations? The biggest Isaaq town is Ainabo and it's relatively small. Most of the district is empty too. Dhulbahante also live in the Ainabo district whereas, HJ barely live in the other 3 districts.

A census is needed in the region.

HJ/HY also live in xudun with Dhulbahante and caynaba is big district with several towns sxb

 

[Sa7rawy]

This discussion should focus on the elections and not clan bickering.

 

[Dharbash]

HJ/HY also live in xudun with Dhulbahante and caynaba is big district with several towns sxb

I’ll admit there’s hy in hudun but they are insignificant in the district, never heard hj there though, as for caynabo it’s shared with jamac siyad

 

[Dharbash]

Dude you don't know anything about the demographic in Somaliland. Half of Sool population is isaaq primarily HJ who live in Aynaba district in western Sool that's why your state claims half of the region where Dhulbahante mainly reside and also there hasn't been a real census conducted in Somaliland or Somalia for the last 40 years

1 district that’s shared with us makes hj half of Sool miya I guess togdheer is half dblock now cause we live in cayn district

 

[Gantaal97]

1 district that’s shared with us makes hj half of Sool miya I guess togdheer is half dblock now cause we live in cayn district

There's no cayn district you guys just live in Buuhodle city with buuhodle district being shared one with HJ solomadow living with you just accepted sxb beesha darawishta don't have a single region for themselves waa salama calikum

 

[Dharbash]

There's no cayn district you guys just live in Buuhodle city with buuhodle district being shared one with HJ solomadow living with you just accepted sxb beesha darawishta don't have a single region for themselves waa salama calikum

Where do hj live in cayn isheeg, and are you hj? I could say Burco district is shared because xadhadan is settled by samakab Ahmed which is a dblock sub clan

 

[Gantaal97]

Where do hj live in cayn isheeg, and are you hj? I could say Burco district is shared because xadhadan is settled by samakab Ahmed which is a dblock sub clan

Waryaa you guys live in Buuhodle city that's it and population of 20,000 max

so now get off from here and stop derailing the thread

 

[Dharbash]

Waryaa you guys live in Buuhodle city that's it and population of 20,000 max

so now get off from here and stop derailing the thread

It’s obvious you don’t know anything about the region and couldn’t even answer my simple question, haye good luck with your day

 

[Bernie Madoff]

56% and declining at a rate of about 1.2% per year.

Bro it’s been debunked to the point tabk took your soul. You are a fraud sxb wallahi just honestly stop i never seen someone got karbashed and continue to spew it.

Lool, as you were talking about sampling figures that I had not seen, I thought you must be talking about another report.

As to this one and whether we should believe it or not, I'll let this glorious piece of Somalispot history speak for itself.
Everything between the double lines below is from @TabK's legendary takedown of you and this report
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- A desert dwelling [insert ref to PLer here] with a hijabi man as avatar on Somalispot:

Estimates made by UN and other NGOs based on non-existing on-the-ground data are ACCURATE.

- The same hijabi on other forums:

"this survey is HIGHLY BIASED"

"Awdal cant have 2x population of Nugaal"

"No one from Puntland region should accept this result"


"This is a mainly satellite based census, conducted by Mogadishu leaning UN agency. Take it with a grain of salt"


Hijabi lost his mind after Migiurtinia's true population figures were exposed.

5%.


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There you have it. Your own views destroying the very report your trying to inject into every SL conversation.