(DERAILMENT) OFFICIAL SOMALILAND ELECTIONS 2021 THREAD

[Gadhwayne]

Dharbash @Hot Ballah pretend you finally realized that you have no alternative to democracy under JSL what governance system would you want excluding war

I get your point about risks associated with electing Guurti. Yes, there is a risk of a less influential elder being elected because his clan turn up more than another clan whose elder might be more influential. Here is what I'd say to that. Elections have consequences. People need to learn that you get the representation you deserve. If you want to sit out an election like a spoiled brat, they'll realized they're only cutting off their nose to spite their own face.

They boycott then tolerate Migiurtinia province presence. They must either be disciplined for treason, which risks terrorism in Badhan, or bring an alternative system that they trust

In theory, your alternative could work. The major problem is that it is a radical departure from what the current system and constitution. Such a radical overhaul would make sense if we had a broken system that doesn't work at all. I don't believe that to be the reality. I think we have a functioning government and parliamentary system that needs major work.

Cigaal designed the system for his own interests. His doomed to be inefficient when it comes to implementing democracy in Badhan and easternSool atleast until recognition/reunification. Some of the most effective/patriotic leaders from those 2 communities might come from subclans who dont vote

When it comes to parliament though, here is where Isaaq have to face the real truth and sacrifice their ego for the sake of the nation. Isaaq are the majority and should get automatically 50% of the parliament and not more of the cake. Remaining 50% of parliament seats should be divided equally 25% samaroon and 25% Dblock. I imagine this will be the perfect Somaliland, as all clans living within are represented equally. In that perfect Somaliland, there is no reason not be recognized internationally because the system is fair and equal. But today the Isaaq have like 62 seats out of 82 (that is like 75%+ of the cake lol) The isaaq are eating it all alone. That is very unfair in my honest opinion and ruins the image of Somaliland not being a single clan project.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

@The Crowe this would be less of departure from the current system. The minorities who boycott democracy could still potentially be guaranteed a representative in FPTP election where all the candidates and voters are from the same clan.

Here is the best solution of mine for Somaliland to immediately turn the tide around and will get formal and global recognition instantly: Since Isaaq worked hard and fought hard to liberate the land they should be rewarded for presidency for lifetime and Samaroons should get Prime minister for lifetime and Dblock President of parliament for lifetime.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

That type of system could work if parliament selects all 3 members as a team. All the major factions of parliament present their 3 leaders and 1 party/coalition wins. All 3 leaders also all go down together if 1 member goes down they all face parliament again

 

[Caaro]

Dharbash @Hot Ballah pretend you see that you have no alternative to democracy under JSL what governance system would you want excluding war



They boycott then tolerate Migiurtinia province presence. They must either be disciplined for treason, which risks terrorism in Badhan, or bring an alternative system that they trust



Cigaal designed the system for his own interests. His doomed to be inefficient when it comes to implementing democracy in Badhan and easternSool atleast until recognition/reunification. Some of the most effective/patriotic leaders from those 2 communities might come from subclans who dont vote

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

@The Crowe this would be less of departure from the current system. The minorities who boycott democracy could still potentially be guaranteed a representative in FPTP election where all the candidates and voters are from the same clan.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

That type of system could work if parliament selects all 3 members as a team. All the major factions of parliament present their 3 leaders and 1 party/coalition wins. All 3 leaders also all go down together if 1 member goes down they all face parliament again

centralized federalism is the only way to go imo.

Somalis (especially on this site) think federalism means a bunch of autonomous states coming together. They have horrible logic talking about “why should a politician in xamar govern somalia all the way in borama”

stupid logic man. Canada is much bigger than Somalia but you don’t see people in vancouver complaining about the federal government in Ottawa.

In canada governments are split into 3 levels. Federal, provincial, and municipal. Federal government does obviously the bigger things like war, trade, federal laws etc.

provincial governments govern over their province and are in charge of their healthcare, schools, and highways.

Municipal governments govern over cities, they worry about roads, parks and recreation, trash and recycling and etc

Somalia should adopt something similar. The federal government acts for the country when it needs to and makes the important laws. Regional governments can decide their education and other things while obviously following the federal governments guidelines (i.e they can’t take away free healthcare even though they’re in charge of their healthcare etc)

This would give them more control and make everything more organized. Someone in xamar can’t obviously handpick the different parks and community centres in all the cities across Somalia, they can delegate that to mayors.

even in SL today they don’t have such an organized government system, they have elections but for what? Government positions are really just a front to seem democratic and give money to those with connections.

 

[Dharbash]

Dharbash @Hot Ballah pretend you see that you have no alternative to democracy under JSL what governance system would you want excluding war

SSC state, nothing more nothing less. We simply have to unite.

 

[angelplan]

They boycott then tolerate Migiurtinia province presence. They must either be disciplined for treason, which risks terrorism in Badhan, or bring an alternative system that they trust

They should be given an alternative system that they will fight to protect it. This is why we must spoil the minorities, including myself and the samarones. Unfortunately though the Isaaq have won but are struggling to gain recognition because they seem not good leaders after all. It is one thing to fight for power and it is another thing to sit in the throne. You see with greatness comes responsibility. If Isaaq view themselves as responsible and remember their own struggle for justice, then i believe they will do good things for everyone and not just themselves. It is like a kid who have won gold but is struggling to sell it. The Isaaq have won a nation for themselves but the question still stands after 30 years, will they be recognized? Somalia is slowly coming out of the coma and is not a good sign. That is why time is ticking. Nobody wants to be ruled from the south, give the minorities what they want because at the end of the day Somaliland will still be Isaaq dominated since Isaaq are easily the majority. There is nothing to loose with showing kindness for the subjects. In fact if given opportunity, they will fight to protect it themselves.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

I am not a fan of this proposal. True equal power sharing will not come from this type of solution. In my honest opinion Muse Bihi has the chance to go down in history as the best president of Somaliland and turn the tide around for the better for Somaliland if he truly gives Samaroons real sami qaybsi. I am expecting Muse Bihi to leave presidency in a good will gesture toward the samaroons.

Here is the best solution of mine for Somaliland to immediately turn the tide around and will get formal and global recognition instantly: Since Isaaq worked hard and fought hard to liberate the land they should be rewarded for presidency for lifetime and Samaroons should get Prime minister for lifetime and Dblock President of parliament for lifetime.

When it comes to parliament though, here is where Isaaq have to face the real truth and sacrifice their ego for the sake of the nation. Isaaq are the majority and should get automatically 50% of the parliament and not more of the cake. Remaining 50% of parliament seats should be divided equally 25% samaroon and 25% Dblock. I imagine this will be the perfect Somaliland, as all clans living within are represented equally. In that perfect Somaliland, there is no reason not be recognized internationally because the system is fair and equal. But today the Isaaq have like 62 seats out of 82 (that is like 75%+ of the cake lol) The isaaq are eating it all alone. That is very unfair in my honest opinion and ruins the image of Somaliland not being a single clan project.

But with patience and time, Inchallah I hope Somaliland will sort itself out in a positive light for all parties included. We need a win win solution for everyone.

In principle I don't disagree with your proposal, I think it certainly achieves a better power sharing structure between the clans.

This is very idealistic of me, but I want us to move away from qabiilism wherever we have the opportunity to do so. The only concern I'd have with your proposal is that it actually officially incorporates even more qabiilist structures into Somaliland's political system. However, I do acknowledge that that is needed for at least the foreseeable future. I am hopeful that the elections of people signs like Barkhad Baatuun getting more votes than anyone else, do signal that the next generations of Somalilanders are ready to move beyond qabiilism at some point.

 

[BigBreak]

@angelplan while I don't support giving clans of different population sizes an equal number of ministers/lawmakers each, I would strongly support every single political party being led by a Gadabursi (who's pro SL independence)

The reason for this is that everyone including the Isaaq majority will no longer be voting along clan or sub clan lines...they'll be instead voting on an policy and ideological basis

 

[Ibz0]

@angelplan while I don't support giving clans of different population sizes an equal number of ministers/lawmakers each, I would strongly support every single political party being led by a Gadabursi (who's pro SL independence)

The reason for this is that everyone including the Isaaq majority will no longer be voting along clan or sub clan lines...they'll be instead voting on an policy and ideological basis

Thats one way, but I don't support anything clan related. The politics needs to be more mature. Many people, including those I know personally didn't vote and only vote in the Presidential as they don't think it makes a difference.

We need everyone to be ID and able to vote, and then make the voting process digital. Using blockchain tech we can remove corruption or double votes.

Many so called minorities are not minor at all. They deserve representation and I support Barkhad. We need more people like him. He won wide range of support and not using tribalism.

All old heads need to go. Empowering them was a mistake. Look at Salebaan Gaal who is refusing to step down.

Ideology and plans > tribal relations.

 

[BigBreak]

@Ibz0 I hear you bro but I think that if all party leaders come from different clans/sub clans folks will just do tribal voting and choose the party that has their relative as the leader. Until clan consciousness is eliminated we should have every party leader come from the same sub clan

 

[Gantaal97]

82 Guurti members? that is way too much on the state money to take care of all them? there is already 82 parliamentary seats i guess. Do we need 82 more mouths to feed? why not just 6 Guurti for the 6 regions. Do they have a common place to meet? do they meet in parliament? how powerful are they in todays Somaliland? do they make meaningfull changes? I do understand though qabil wise they may have played a decisive role in the foundation of Somaliland.

The Guurti consists of elders of each regions clans and sub clans and other honorable clans like Aabo yonis and Akisho each having a single elder representative.

 

[Gantaal97]

I am not a fan of this proposal. True equal power sharing will not come from this type of solution. In my honest opinion Muse Bihi has the chance to go down in history as the best president of Somaliland and turn the tide around for the better for Somaliland if he truly gives Samaroons real sami qaybsi. I am expecting Muse Bihi to leave presidency in a good will gesture toward the samaroons.

Here is the best solution of mine for Somaliland to immediately turn the tide around and will get formal and global recognition instantly: Since Isaaq worked hard and fought hard to liberate the land they should be rewarded for presidency for lifetime and Samaroons should get Prime minister for lifetime and Dblock President of parliament for lifetime.

When it comes to parliament though, here is where Isaaq have to face the real truth and sacrifice their ego for the sake of the nation. Isaaq are the majority and should get automatically 50% of the parliament and not more of the cake. Remaining 50% of parliament seats should be divided equally 25% samaroon and 25% Dblock. I imagine this will be the perfect Somaliland, as all clans living within are represented equally. In that perfect Somaliland, there is no reason not be recognized internationally because the system is fair and equal. But today the Isaaq have like 62 seats out of 82 (that is like 75%+ of the cake lol) The isaaq are eating it all alone. That is very unfair in my honest opinion and ruins the image of Somaliland not being a single clan project.

But with patience and time, Inchallah I hope Somaliland will sort itself out in a positive light for all parties included. We need a win win solution for everyone.

I agree with you about the issue of sami qaybsi where there should be a real equal representation of frontier communities and a new dialogue should be started discussing that issue cuz I believe in that way we can get back most of eastern communities to Somaliland fold

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

because at the end of the day Somaliland will still be Isaaq dominated since Isaaq are easily the majority.

56% and declining at a rate of about 1.2% per year.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

56% and declining at a rate of about 1.2% per year.

Actually 72% and increasing by 2.1% every year.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Actually 72% and increasing by 2.1% every year.

I just run the numbers. Here is the best example of this. These trends are just too consistent to be flukes. No matter how you run the numbers, you get a ratio within a limited range of error.

Region​	Pop1975​	Pop2005​	Pop2014​	Pop2019(2014adjusted)​	Growth Rate 1975-2019 CAGR​	Rate of Decline Togdheer share 1975-2019​
Togdheer​	335,726​	402,295​	721,363​	755,795​	1.86%​	​
Sool​	48,592​	150,277​	327,427​	360,431​	4.66%​	​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Sool as % of Togdheer​	14.5%​	37.4%​	45.4%​	47.7%​	​	1.11% per year​

 

[Ibz0]

Of course Caynabo is growing every year.

 

[Ibz0]

More and more people are moving to the Hargeisa. The birth rate has increased and more importantly the child mortality rate has increased with the medical care. More and being born and surviving.

 

[Gantaal97]

I just run the numbers. Here is the best example of this. These trends are just too consistent to be flukes. No matter how you run the numbers, you get a ratio within a limited range of error.

Region​	Pop1975​	Pop2005​	Pop2014​	Pop2019(2014adjusted)​	Growth Rate 1975-2019 CAGR​	Rate of Decline Togdheer share 1975-2019​
Togdheer​	335,726​	402,295​	721,363​	755,795​	1.86%​	​
Sool​	48,592​	150,277​	327,427​	360,431​	4.66%​	​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Sool as % of Togdheer​	14.5%​	37.4%​	45.4%​	47.7%​	​	1.11% per year​

Yeah Sool is shared region so what's your point?

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

I just run the numbers. Here is the best example of this. These trends are just too consistent to be flukes. No matter how you run the numbers, you get a ratio within a limited range of error.

Region​	Pop1975​	Pop2005​	Pop2014​	Pop2019(2014adjusted)​	Growth Rate 1975-2019 CAGR​	Rate of Decline Togdheer share 1975-2019​
Togdheer​	335,726​	402,295​	721,363​	755,795​	1.86%​	​
Sool​	48,592​	150,277​	327,427​	360,431​	4.66%​	​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Sool as % of Togdheer​	14.5%​	37.4%​	45.4%​	47.7%​	​	1.11% per year​

Where is this from?

Don't say it's the report that you yourself have so eloquently debunked again and again.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

I just run the numbers. Here is the best example of this. These trends are just too consistent to be flukes. No matter how you run the numbers, you get a ratio within a limited range of error.

Region​	Pop1975​	Pop2005​	Pop2014​	Pop2019(2014adjusted)​	Growth Rate 1975-2019 CAGR​	Rate of Decline Togdheer share 1975-2019​
Togdheer​	335,726​	402,295​	721,363​	755,795​	1.86%​	​
Sool​	48,592​	150,277​	327,427​	360,431​	4.66%​	​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Sool as % of Togdheer​	14.5%​	37.4%​	45.4%​	47.7%​	​	1.11% per year​

Yeah Sool is shared region so what's your point?

Also this.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Also this.

For all practical purposes, I assume Buhoodle and Caynabo cancel out. Sool is a Dhulbahante state and Togdheer is an Isaaq state.

A summary of the dynamic:

1- Two ethnic groups have a fairly stable ratio, for example Kikuyu are 2x the size of the Kalenjin.

2- One ethnic group begins to urbanize, get literate, begin demographic transition, the other remains at natural fertility.

3- Ratio stays the same for a while (about 10 to 15 years) due to demographic inertia.

4- Ratio begins to change exponentially as growth rates begin to diverge. Kalenjin are ~50% the size of Kikuyu in 1979, only 55% in 1989, and then jump to ~80% the size of Kikuyu in 2019, 30 years later.


The convergence between the Kalenjin and Kikuyu is considered extremely fast by demographers. The convergence between the Dhulbahante (Sool) and Isaaq (Togdheer&Woqoyie Galbeed) is about 2.4x faster than what happened in Kenya. Unheard of rate of convergence between ethnic groups.

I will write up a thread on this tomorrow if I have time.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

For all practical purposes, I assume Buhoodle and Caynabo cancel out. Sool is a Dhulbahante state and Togdheer is an Isaaq state.

In other words Suugo science. Your data in no way separates out Isaaq from Dhulbahante. Any clan based conclusions from the data you looked at is pure fabrication on your part.

Additionally, the data itself is one you have repeatedly debunked yourself.

Give it up dude. Your fantasy has no basis in reality. There is nothing backing up your hope that you'll "outbreed" us. You want "your" Harti lands back, you are going to have to grow some balls and take it back by force.