Could Saudi Arabia run out of oil earlier than expected ?

[Barkhadle1520]

What do you guys think about this, it matches MBS's actions and concern about the next decades

Supposedly, if they ran out of oil by 2050 who would be replacing them ? Not Venezuela btw

 

[Idilinaa]

He right about them having 10 years left oil, possibly even less, otherwise they wouldn't be scrambling to diversify in a hurry.

That youtuber has a very shallow understanding when he thinks their diversification is working:

The Gulf Economies (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar , Saudi etc) are doomed in the long run.

Oil is running out

The attempts diversify is not even working, they try to move away from it by building tourism, finance, and tech sectors but all rely on foreign labor and expertise.

Most of their "new industries" are still funded by oil money, meaning they are not self-sustaining.

They lack local human capital, most citizens are not involved in economic productivity.

You cannot "diversify" an economy that is 80% dependent on foreign workers. Local Gulf citizens lack the work ethic, technical skills, and industrial base to sustain these economies without oil.

Their extreme dependence on foreign labour & capital is their achilees heel. The Gulf economies rely almost entirely on migrant labor from construction to service industries.

For example 90% of Dubai’s workforce is foreign, what this means is that if the expats leave, the economy collapses.

Investors are already pulling out due to political instability, corruption, and declining oil revenues. Once oil revenues drop, these economies will no longer be attractive to investors or expats.

They also are losing influence and are weak innovators. Gulf nations have little technological innovation, they mostly import expertise from the West and Asia.

They drive massive government spending into unrealistic mega projects , that don't create real economic growth. End up in-debt. Kuwait and Bahrain for example are struggling with rising debt.
Dubai and other Gulf cities are built on real estate bubbles, not sustainable industries.

Unlike countries like Japan, Singapore, or Norway, they did not build strong local industries.

I am also pretty sure they bit their own tail by entangling themselves into regional geo-politicial conflicts and threats, by playing manipulators and infighting. So it will all just converge into them once they don't have the wealth and influence defend against it.

Also Internal dissatisfaction will rise, since the native citizens are used to easy wealth but are now being forced to work harder. The elite ruling families will not survive and economic hardship will spread, they will all fall like domino.

 

[Guure⁸]

What do you guys think about this, it matches MBS's actions and concern about the next decades

Supposedly, if they ran out of oil by 2050 who would be replacing them ? Not Venezuela btw

The great somali nation

 

[Barkhadle1520]

He right about them having 10 years left oil, possibly even less, otherwise they wouldn't be scrambling to diversify in a hurry.

That youtuber has a very shallow understanding when he thinks their diversification is working:

I think 10 years is too low, at least 2045 is a good estimate, seeing how MBS set his vision 2030 and not 2035 or 2040

This may just be a fantasy but I really which Somalia could fill the gap in the near future, we've got the capacity too

 

[Rayaale]

Off topic, how can one change the theme to dark mode

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Off topic, how can one change the theme to dark mode

Im still trying to figure it out, hate the new design

 

[Rayaale]

Im still trying to figure it out, hate the new design

Mods need to bring the old layout, this is killing my eyes

 

[Guure⁸]

Mods need to bring the old layout, this is killing my eyes

Fr dawg shi looks like mareja rn

 

[Idilinaa]

Seeing that chart in the video of how Nigeria exported 30 billion USD in oil revenue in a single year will always baffle me because they are so poor and lack standard of living. Imagine what one could do with only a fraction of that money. As corrupt as the current FGS is i could never imagine the oil revenue disappear like that, that's like daylight robbery every single year and i think they would have been hung by an angry mob. I am also pretty optimistic because there is a drive for institutional progress and change , also local/private cooperation so i am not too worried about it.

I think 10 years is too low, at least 2045 is a good estimate, seeing how MBS set his vision 2030 and not 2035 or 2040

This may just be a fantasy but I really which Somalia could fill the gap in the near future

You’re probably right , it’s likely around 2040–2045'ish. Somalia could potentially fill that gap within five years and become a serious contender.


It would actually benefit us if the Gulf States decline or drop out, since the U.S. and parts of the West will have high demand for resources especially now that Russia is no longer a viable option. That’s partly why Trump reportedly tried to pressure Ukraine to hand over their oil in exchange for protection.


Somalia’s position with uranium particularly with Almond Energy is quite similar. In the midst of a global energy crisis, the demand for uranium to fuel nuclear power is extremely strong.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Seeing that chart in the video of how Nigeria exported 30 billion USD in oil revenue in a single year will always baffle me because they are so poor and lack standard of living. Imagine what one could do with only a fraction of that money. As corrupt as FGS is i could never imagine the oil revenue disappear like that, that's like daylight robbery every single year and i think they would have been hung by an angry mob.

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You’re probably right , it’s likely around 2040–2045'ish. Somalia could potentially fill that gap within five years and become a serious contender.

This is why Im excited for the 2030s, if what they say is true and theyre going to start works by 2026, we might see FGS be a big oil producer and make up recovery costs by the early 2030s, Im optimistic about this

Im not even asking for Saudi like numbers, Azerbaidjan has only 10 rigs offshore and onshore and they make $16b a year, this would be more than enough for FGS

As I said before this means each rig would make a little over $1.6b, pumping about 60,000 barrels a year

Lots of interesting things will be happening next year

 

[Midas]

Seeing that chart in the video of how Nigeria exported 30 billion USD in oil revenue in a single year will always baffle me because they are so poor and lack standard of living

That money is what keeps this country of 200 million people united . The reason these elites are able to reach a poltical settlement is because of that money.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

That money is what keeps this country of 200 million people united . The reason these elites are able to reach a poltical settlement is because of that money.

Nigeria's production is suprisingly very small for a country of 200 million, sadly for them Nigerians are in for another 60 years of this nonsense

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[NoticeNoticer]

Nigeria's production is suprisingly very small for a country of 200 million, sadly for them Nigerians are in for another 60 years of this nonsense

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fr. Have you seen the houses. It's on top of stilts that were made 200 years ago. The sea thats surrounding them is filled with Feces and trash so much so that fucking ocean over there is pitch black and green. Im happy im not Nigerian.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

fr. Have you seen the houses. It's on top of stilts that were made 200 years ago. The sea thats surrounding them is filled with Feces and trash so much so that fucking ocean over there is pitch black and green. Im happy im not Nigerian.

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