Could a Benevolent Autocracy save Somalia?

[DR OSMAN]

Somalis somewhat already did develop a national identity, even before Somalia came to existence. SYL was by far the most popular political party among Somalis, dwarfing any qabil based ones, the desire to see a united Somalia was already there among Somalis in the early-mid 20th century. The actual thing colonialism did was prevent it from actually happening. People also underestimate how closely connected Somalis were prior to colonialism. Yes, Somalis weren't politically united but clan territories across the Horn were heavily interconnected economically culturally and familially. Somalis from various clans established trade routes and caravans that linked coastal towns with interior ones which provided the life blood for those coastal areas. Somalis from one clan area would move into other clan territories to seek Islamic education. Pre-modern Somalia wasn't isolated or fragmented in the traditional sense.

Check out this thread which goes way more into detail about how Somalia's geography impacted Somali identity, culture and interconnectivity.



Also food for thought, pre-modern Somalia may have been one of, if not, the most peaceful region in Africa. There were pretty much no major inter Somali wars, no evidence of any mass organised warfare between Somali city states, sultanates or clan polities. Only minor conflicts and skirmishes over resources between pastorialists.

Me and Puntitequeen and @FBIsomalia are stunned at your case to re apply the Somali political experiment for Political unity after a 35 year civil war and a preceding period of dictatorship and a corrupt civilian govt. SYL was a social movement that should've ended socially not turned into a idealogy for Somali politics. Kacdoon kasto lama.siyasadayo lol

Do u read your post and how it contradicted itself(waa post iskhilafayo). Somalis don't have issues socially and noone ever said they did. Socially things are OK and we're always OK in the past.

The issue is land, politics, power, authority, control, clan dignity and freedom, as your post said this was never established in the past and now today we still can't establish it. Maybe God doesn't allow it.

We can blame colonials, ethio, Western, Arab or any external actor but deep down we know Somali identity isn't a political one and this should be accepted as a hard truth pill the Somali Republic needs to be given its official funeral, it's already buried waa bakhti maydh ah oo uu bahan keliya in la aaso(official balkanization). Somalidu are already various new identities, it's just not official. Hala aaso Somalinimada dhinaca siyasada(Pan Africa waala assay).

Somali waa dad(a people) ma aha dal(not a nation) is actually on of my my protest shirts.

 

[Idilinaa]

What Somalia truly needs is a ''youth-led civic movement,'' one driven by people in their teens, 20s, and 30s, across all regions and walks of life. We need to rebuild a shared civic identity that has been fractured, and push for political and institutional reform that reflects the country’s needs

Federalism, as currently practiced in Somalia, fosters fragmentation. If you support federalism in its current form, you support your own marginalization

What Somalia should have is a unitary decentralized government, that allows for local governance. A bottom up approach if you will, a political system that compliments our strong private sector.

Most of the modern developed economies in the world have decentralized their government structure. For example Japan decentralized a lot during its economic boom in the 1970-90s , so it could distribute services and resources to people outside of Tokyo who lacked access to electricity and other services and eliminate financial shortages in other regions. Before this everything was concentrated in Tokyo, most other regions lived like rural medieval fiefdoms.

Decentralisation in Japan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It is today divided into regional prefectures and municipalities with their own local authority and autonomy.

Norway is similar to this as well its very decentralized divided into local governments with their own autonomy into municipalities and counties.
Norway: Governmental, Decentralized and Trusted

The administrative authority for conducting elections is thus highly decentralized. At the central level there is one multiparty body (the NEB) with limited formal authority. Most other tasks at the national level are carried out by the Ministry. However, other administrative bodies are involved in elections. Electoral registers are extracts of the civil registers, which are administered by a unit under the national tax authorities. Appeals may be filed with a committee appointed by the Ministry.

Decentralization is a good thing if it's unitary. It promotes cooperation across the country .resource sharing and local community building and government efficiency. Local governments are closer to the people and understand local needs better. Decentralization allows faster decision-making, especially in public services like education, infrastructure, and policing.

Decentralization helps spread economic growth across regions instead of concentrating it in capital cities. Regions can develop their own industrial strengths, tax bases, and investment strategies.

It encourages local innovation and competition between regions for better governance.

Also even the Kacaan Government was neither a dictatorship or an autocracy or fully centralized. What it actually did was in a way declare Marshall Law after the coup attempt and proceeded with the plan of building Somalia's institutions and administrative frameworks.

It was unitary but It had decentralized it's administration , divided the country into many gobols(provinces) with their own local council, district committees etc and regional governors that had their own local elections

Infact one of their mission statements was precisly to decentralize Somalia's administrative structure to allow for people of every background and region to be participants in the decision making process and to make the government administrative machinery more effecient.

''They should not set themselves up as masters but should consult the people regarding their local problems"

It really is shame how it's been misrepresented in public discourse.
Somalia Had Democratic Institutions.
- Parliament,
- local councils,
- district committees,
- Trade unions functioned as representative bodies where different sectors of society had input.

Members of these bodies were elected, meaning the government was not purely top-down authoritarian rule.

It was essentially a decentralized political participation. Pastoralists, Workers, farmers, professionals, fishermen and students had organized representative unions that were involved in political decision-making.

Unlike classic dictatorships where power is centralized, Somalia's government allowed different social organizations to act as political institutions.

Much of this outlined here:

The Historical Evolution of the Somali Revolutionary​

What Went Wrong?

What derailed this progress was not tribalism or dictatorship, but Cold War geopolitics.

A coordinated destabilization campaign by Ethiopia, Israel, and segments of the Soviet bloc stirred division and resentment.

Economically, the model was robust, followed a controlled but open economic model, allowing both state-driven development and private-sector growth , until Ethiopia's villagization/de-population program displaced hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians Muslims & Ogaden Somalis into Somalia.

It was planned method to overburden Somalia's economy (displaced people increased demand for food, housing, healthcare, and education) , It strained the governments budget and it was forced to rely on foreign loans.

To handle the crisis, Somalia borrowed from the IMF and World Bank, which imposed Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) and the government had to cut down on public service spending to finance/pay back the loans.

This resulted in the Somali currency being devalued. Before this the currency was strong with a stable exchange rate which shows you how well managed the economy was.

It wasn't due to mismanagement or socialist policies failing at all. Somalia was deliberately sabotaged and backed into a corner.

On top of the economic burden, diplomatic isolation and coordinated efforts to starve Somalia politically were also at play. Powerful actors sought to weaken Somalia’s sovereignty and force compliance through pressure, not partnership.

In truth, there wasn’t much Somalia could have done differently , not without surrendering its independence or handing over its resources.

Somalia wasn’t a failed project , it was sabotaged. And what will restore it isn’t more fragmentation, but a cohesive civic movement led by young Somalis who understand both the past and the path forward.

 

[DR OSMAN]

What Somalia truly needs is a ''youth-led civic movement,'' one driven by people in their teens, 20s, and 30s, across all regions and walks of life. We need to rebuild a shared civic identity that has been fractured, and push for political and institutional reform that reflects the country’s needs

Federalism, as currently practiced in Somalia, fosters fragmentation. If you support federalism in its current form, you support your own marginalization

What Somalia should have is a unitary decentralized government, that allows for local governance. A bottom up approach if you will, a political system that compliments our strong private sector.

Most of the modern developed economies in the world have decentralized their government structure. For example Japan decentralized a lot during its economic boom in the 1970-90s , so it could distribute services and resources to people outside of Tokyo who lacked access to electricity and other services and eliminate financial shortages in other regions. Before this everything was concentrated in Tokyo, most other regions lived like rural medieval fiefdoms.

Decentralisation in Japan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It is today divided into regional prefectures and municipalities with their own local authority and autonomy.

Norway is similar to this as well its very decentralized divided into local governments with their own autonomy into municipalities and counties.
Norway: Governmental, Decentralized and Trusted



Decentralization is a good thing if it's unitary. It promotes cooperation across the country .resource sharing and local community building and government efficiency. Local governments are closer to the people and understand local needs better. Decentralization allows faster decision-making, especially in public services like education, infrastructure, and policing.

Decentralization helps spread economic growth across regions instead of concentrating it in capital cities. Regions can develop their own industrial strengths, tax bases, and investment strategies.

It encourages local innovation and competition between regions for better governance.

Also even the Kacaan Government was neither a dictatorship or an autocracy or fully centralized. What it actually did was in a way declare Marshall Law after the coup attempt and proceeded with the plan of building Somalia's institutions and administrative frameworks.

It was unitary but It had decentralized it's administration , divided the country into many gobols(provinces) with their own local council, district committees etc and regional governors that had their own local elections
View attachment 362209
View attachment 362210

Infact one of their mission statements was precisly to decentralize Somalia's administrative structure to allow for people of every background and region to be participants in the decision making process and to make the government administrative machinery more effecient.

''They should not set themselves up as masters but should consult the people regarding their local problems"
View attachment 362211
View attachment 362212

It really is shame how it's been misrepresented in public discourse.
Somalia Had Democratic Institutions.
- Parliament,
- local councils,
- district committees,
- Trade unions functioned as representative bodies where different sectors of society had input.

Members of these bodies were elected, meaning the government was not purely top-down authoritarian rule.

It was essentially a decentralized political participation. Pastoralists, Workers, farmers, professionals, fishermen and students had organized representative unions that were involved in political decision-making.

Unlike classic dictatorships where power is centralized, Somalia's government allowed different social organizations to act as political institutions.

Much of this outlined here:


What Went Wrong?

What derailed this progress was not tribalism or dictatorship, but Cold War geopolitics.

A coordinated destabilization campaign by Ethiopia, Israel, and segments of the Soviet bloc stirred division and resentment.

Economically, the model was robust, followed a controlled but open economic model, allowing both state-driven development and private-sector growth , until Ethiopia's villagization/de-population program displaced hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians Muslims & Ogaden Somalis into Somalia.

It was planned method to overburden Somalia's economy (displaced people increased demand for food, housing, healthcare, and education) , It strained the governments budget and it was forced to rely on foreign loans.

To handle the crisis, Somalia borrowed from the IMF and World Bank, which imposed Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) and the government had to cut down on public service spending to finance/pay back the loans.

This resulted in the Somali currency being devalued. Before this the currency was strong with a stable exchange rate which shows you how well managed the economy was.

It wasn't due to mismanagement or socialist policies failing at all. Somalia was deliberately sabotaged and backed into a corner.

On top of the economic burden, diplomatic isolation and coordinated efforts to starve Somalia politically were also at play. Powerful actors sought to weaken Somalia’s sovereignty and force compliance through pressure, not partnership.

In truth, there wasn’t much Somalia could have done differently , not without surrendering its independence or handing over its resources.

Somalia wasn’t a failed project , it was sabotaged. And what will restore it isn’t more fragmentation, but a cohesive civic movement led by young Somalis who understand both the past and the path forward.

Dude Majority of Somali elites are no longer receptive to the gumaysi la dirir, ethio neceb, foreign conspiracy tool to unify the people, it's been tried, it failed also and pointing to more foreign blame game really just goes nowhere, no-one is saying there isn't a foreign hand or influence but it's always due to Somali internal problems it's not created from the outside, it's created from within and then they seek outside assistance. There was this mad MJ who showed the amount of deaths Somalis faced since 150 years, all fell to a Somali enemy not foreign which was like 1%.

Most Somalis are now paranoid of each other knowing the data and daliil, they know essentially your their worst enemy and foreign hand is secondary.

Most people here also focusing on Somali being central to the problem

 

[Idilinaa]

Just to clarify the fragmentation/fracturing is purely civic in nature and largely imposed from the outside

What is a civic identity?

Civic identity is a sense of belonging to a political community, shaped by both individual beliefs and experiences within the broader social, political, and economic structures of a society. It encompasses the values, emotions, and beliefs related to one's role as a citizen, whether at the local, regional, national, or global level.

Economically, socially, and culturally, Somalis are extremely cohesive and interconnected.

Somalis somewhat already did develop a national identity, even before Somalia came to existence. SYL was by far the most popular political party among Somalis, dwarfing any qabil based ones, the desire to see a united Somalia was already there among Somalis in the early-mid 20th century. The actual thing colonialism did was prevent it from actually happening. People also underestimate how closely connected Somalis were prior to colonialism. Yes, Somalis weren't politically united but clan territories across the Horn were heavily interconnected economically culturally and familially. Somalis from various clans established trade routes and caravans that linked coastal towns with interior ones which provided the life blood for those coastal areas. Somalis from one clan area would move into other clan territories to seek Islamic education. Pre-modern Somalia wasn't isolated or fragmented in the traditional sense.

Check out this thread which goes way more into detail about how Somalia's geography impacted Somali identity, culture and interconnectivity.



Also food for thought, pre-modern Somalia may have been one of, if not, the most peaceful region in Africa. There were pretty much no major inter Somali wars, no evidence of any mass organised warfare between Somali city states, sultanates or clan polities. Only minor conflicts and skirmishes over resources between pastorialists.

In fact, Somalia’s geography, societal setup, and shared cultural history position it perfectly/uniquely suited for a highly modernized ,integrated/advanced economy and political structure/system. Unlike Ethiopia, whose mountainous, landlocked geography and historic feudalism hinder integration and rigid hierarchies limit fluid development. Ethiopia is held together through external support , not organic cohesion.

Somalia is naturally suited for decentralized yet unified governance , it’s just been repeatedly derailed by external forces.

Somalia, despite its derailed political path, continues to show a remarkable level of national-scale integration through its business ecosystems and social institutions.

I’d describe Somali society as a segmentary, cooperative, high-trust society , one that enables national-level collaboration and resilience across clan and regional lines.

 

[Idilinaa]

Dude Majority of Somali elites are no longer receptive to the gumaysi la dirir, ethio neceb, foreign conspiracy tool to unify the people, it's been tried, it failed also and pointing to more foreign blame game really just goes nowhere, no-one is saying there isn't a foreign hand or influence but it's always due to Somali internal problems it's not created from the outside, it's created from within and then they seek outside assistance. There was this mad MJ who showed the amount of deaths Somalis faced since 150 years, all fell to a Somali enemy not foreign which was like 1%.

Most Somalis are now paranoid of each other knowing the data and daliil, they know essentially your their worst enemy and foreign hand is secondary.

Most people here also focusing on Somali being central to the problem

Your comment confuses correlation with causation and overlooks some fundamental realities. Let me ask you this: Why does Somalia’s private sector thrive across regions and clan lines, while the public sector remains dysfunctional, corrupt, and divisive?


The answer is simple: ''foreign interference''. The Somali private sector is independent, funded by Somalis themselves, built on trust, and driven by real local needs. The public sector, on the other hand, is largely shaped by foreign agendas, propped up by external aid, and engineered through a federal system that was designed to keep Somalia weak and fragmented.

You mention Somali elites, but who created the current political framework, that empowers those elites? It's not grassroots Somali movements. It was developed in Nairobi, Addis Ababa, and under UN oversight. That system incentivizes division, not unity. Elites are chosen based on their ability to serve that system, not the Somali people.

Yes, Somalis have internal issues. But those issues are exacerbated, sustained, and manipulated by external actors. Blaming Somalis entirely while ignoring the role of the systems they are trapped in is shortsighted. If the private sector can build cross-clan trust and functional cooperation, then it proves that the problem isn't inherently Somali, it's structural and external.

The solution? End foreign-engineered federalism, rebuild a unitary but decentralized state, and restore Somali-led governance with legitimacy rooted in the people. That’s when you’ll start to see real transformation, not by scapegoating Somalis for a mess they didn’t architect.

 

[Riftvalley]

Somalis are led by two classes of “men”: opportunists (NGO crowdfunding crew) and black Zionists. Both have to go (socially, philosophically and politically). It will probably take a hundreds years.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Just to clarify the fragmentation/fracturing is purely civic in nature and largely imposed from the outside

What is a civic identity?


Economically, socially, and culturally, Somalis are extremely cohesive and interconnected.





In fact, Somalia’s geography, societal setup, and shared cultural history position it perfectly/uniquely suited for a highly modernized ,integrated/advanced economy and political structure/system. Unlike Ethiopia, whose mountainous, landlocked geography and historic feudalism hinder integration and rigid hierarchies limit fluid development. Ethiopia is held together through external support , not organic cohesion.

Somalia is naturally suited for decentralized yet unified governance , it’s just been repeatedly derailed by external forces.

Somalia, despite its derailed political path, continues to show a remarkable level of national-scale integration through its business ecosystems and social institutions.

I’d describe Somali society as a segmentary, cooperative, high-trust society , one that enables national-level collaboration and resilience across clan and regional lines.

Noone is denying your valid points that somalis are socially ok across every level but don't translate to mean their suitable for political unity as their is enough data and recorded events from 1960 till 2025 that says otherwise.

This foreign blame game was used as a tool by the older elites to sow political unity and it has been tried and has reached its expiry date not many are receptive anymore to it post civil war seeing their biggest enemy has been another Somali so cease this foreign blame game your instigating here from failed policies of the past. Infact If u carefully look at all Somali conflict from 1850s till today, u will see that your biggest enemy is another Somali just like we all witnessed in 91 and till 2025 and its ludicrous of you to sing the kumbaya Somali card knowing this and the down down evil foreign rhetoric.

 

[Idilinaa]

Noone is denying your valid points that somalis are socially ok across every level but don't translate to mean their suitable for political unity as their is enough data from1960 till 2025 for you to review that isn't the case.

This foreign blame game was used as a tool by the older elites to sow political unity and it has been tried and has reached its expiry date not many are receptive anymore to it post civil war seeing their biggest enemy has been another Somali so cease this foreign blame game your instigating here from failed policies of the past. Infact I'd u carefully look at all Somali conflict from 1850s till today, u will see that your biggest enemy is amptjer Somali just like we all witnessed in 91 and till 2025.

You're overlooking key historical and contemporary examples of Somali political unity that directly contradict your claim. The Somali state itself was born from a cross-regional, youth-led political movement, the Somali Youth League (SYL), that transcended clan and regional lines. That’s not fiction; that’s political unity in action.

The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) is another clear example. It wasn’t a clan-based militia, it was a grassroots judicial movement that gained legitimacy and support from Somalis across the country because it brought peace and order where warlords had failed.

The Kacaan government, for all its flaws, also mobilized nationwide support. It implemented civic and institutional reforms that unified Somalis under a shared vision,until Cold War geopolitics and regional destabilization disrupted the process.

And even today, we see political coherence in the Somali private sector, which you’ve completely ignored. Business giant's like Hormuud, and Dahabshiil don’t succeed because of foreign aid or external engineering, they thrive because Somalis trust each other, cooperate across regions, and build shared infrastructure. That cohesion is real, it just doesn’t exist in the externally imposed political structures that are designed to divide.

To say “Somalis are their own worst enemy” is a defeatist oversimplification. It ignores the role that external actors, proxy wars, and imposed systems have played in undermining every grassroots political breakthrough Somalis have achieved.

History shows Somalis can unite politically. The issue isn’t a lack of capacity, it’s the system they’re forced to operate within. Change the system, and you’ll see a different outcome.

 

[DR OSMAN]

You're overlooking key historical and contemporary examples of Somali political unity that directly contradict your claim. The Somali state itself was born from a cross-regional, youth-led political movement, the Somali Youth League (SYL), that transcended clan and regional lines. That’s not fiction; that’s political unity in action.

The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) is another clear example. It wasn’t a clan-based militia, it was a grassroots judicial movement that gained legitimacy and support from Somalis across the country because it brought peace and order where warlords had failed.

The Kacaan government, for all its flaws, also mobilized nationwide support. It implemented civic and institutional reforms that unified Somalis under a shared vision,until Cold War geopolitics and regional destabilization disrupted the process.

And even today, we see political coherence in the Somali private sector, which you’ve completely ignored. Business giant's like Hormuud, and Dahabshiil don’t succeed because of foreign aid or external engineering, they thrive because Somalis trust each other, cooperate across regions, and build shared infrastructure. That cohesion is real, it just doesn’t exist in the externally imposed political structures that are designed to divide.

To say “Somalis are their own worst enemy” is a defeatist oversimplification. It ignores the role that external actors, proxy wars, and imposed systems have played in undermining every grassroots political breakthrough Somalis have achieved.

History shows Somalis can unite politically. The issue isn’t a lack of capacity, it’s the system they’re forced to operate within. Change the system, and you’ll see a different outcome.

So Somali isn't your worst enemy well why don't u go tell them

And stop listing every new lil mashruc they mutated to since 91 as some govt movement, their holding capital under siege and all Somalis are affected indirectly and can't move on and develop and catch up with the world which is the Somali will but their is a huge obstacle in the capital. No functioning capital means u can't engage with the rest of the world as it's the Seat and face of your Govt to the world and remain stuck in this ngo hell which itself has turned into mashruc there and lots of hamar land owners are renting out land plots and milking it s by hosting IDPs and pocketing the cash from UN humanitarian agencies.

Everything is a Mashruc there don't u know that the financial motives are their siyasad, heck even dead niggas can't be buried there isbaaro ayaa loo dhigta, if they don't pay hawiyenimo baad as they go into their earth which hawiyenimo soil in their eyes.

 

[Zak12]

Business giant's like Hormuud, and Dahabshiil don’t succeed because of foreign aid or external engineering

This is a great point. There is also the fact that telecom companies like Hormuud operate across clan lines thus immediately debunking the notion that Somalis are inherently clannist. Even between Somalia, Somaliland and Puntland, all three rely heavily on each other and cooperate via trade, energy and services which involves no foreign aid whatsoever. Its simply economics and supply/demand. It would be profusely stupid for any entrepreneurial Somali to deny the business of other Somalis just because they are from a different clan.

Galbeed is also another example, its quite possibly the most united Somali populated region outside of Somaliland, Puntland and Djibouti and are focusing on infrastructure and other services. Why aren't they waging huge clan wars or backstab each other like the critics assume Somalis do? Because they are autonomous and run things their own way. That is the nature of Somalis.

 

[Idilinaa]

So Somali isn't your worst enemy well why don't u go tell them

View attachment 362220

Better yet, ask them where they got their weapons and funding support from in the first place. Those aren’t backyard-made arms , they were imported and financed, often with the backing of foreign agendas(CIA/Mossad, Ethiopia etc), that thrived on Somali instability.

Then ask them who disarmed all of them in 2005–2006, ended the checkpoints, and brought back stability to the streets of Mogadishu. I’ll give you a hint....

it wasn’t through more guns, it was through Somali-led reconciliation under the Islamic Courts Union, the same movement that called on all foreign interference to stop and demanded Somali solutions to Somali problems.

So before reducing Somali issues to "Somalis being their own worst enemy," maybe examine who keeps supplying the matches every time we start putting out the fire.

 

[Zak12]

Better yet, ask them where they got their weapons and funding support from in the first place. Those aren’t backyard-made arms , they were imported and financed, often with the backing of foreign agendas(CIA/Mossad, Ethiopia etc), that thrived on Somali instability.

Then ask them who disarmed all of them in 2005–2006, ended the checkpoints, and brought back stability to the streets of Mogadishu. I’ll give you a hint....

View attachment 362222
View attachment 362223

it wasn’t through more guns, it was through Somali-led reconciliation under the Islamic Courts Union, the same movement that called on all foreign interference to stop and demanded Somali solutions to Somali problems.

So before reducing Somali issues to "Somalis being their own worst enemy," maybe examine who keeps supplying the matches every time we start putting out the fire.

In your humble opinion Idilina, how long do you think is left until Somalia undergoes another paradigm shift? 2030? 2035? Its clear that foreign funding sources are drying up and the IC looks to finally step away from Somalia and give it breathing room. I'm sure FGS, Ethiopia and Kenya will protest but it looks like the stubborn peacekeeping efforts and federal model will finally go away as America and its allies realize it isn't working.

There was a thread before that predicts what direction Somalia is heading in the next year or so.

This is all based on facts. I will keep it simple.

-UK/USA had agreements with HSM to give them access to Somalia’s resources both land and sea.

-HSM agreed but only if the UK would help get Somalia into the EA economic block, help remove the arms embargo and with debt relief which the UK has agreed to and fulfilled.

-USA already had a base in KG so the UK decided to settle in Galmudug to get access to its precious minerals, offshore oil and gas, fish etc which were all promised to them by HSM

-HSM made a stupid move by giving Turkey all the resources that were promised to the UK. HSM’s intentions were to rule Somalia indefinitely by giving 90% to Turkey and eat the rest by himself

-UK/USA now gave HSM deadline to bring all FMS to the table by June 30th or face impeachment from the IC for not meeting deadline

-UK/USA purposely making it difficult for HSM so as to not meet this deadline. They making sure all FMS boycott this just like how they did today. In case you didn’t know, non of them attended today’s meeting and this was done so by design.

-Expect the same thing that happened to Abdiqasim to happen to HSM soon in Garoowe or Kampala whereby a whole new government was build while he was the sitting president at the time.

-30th June James Swan will officially be the interim president of Somalia and Museveni head of military until a new government comes to power.

 

[Idilinaa]

@DR OSMAN You added more after I already responded. Honestly, you’re coming off unhinged , maybe take a step back from all the clan-centric political rhetoric.

Somaliland and Puntland often operate with a misplaced superiority complex toward Mogadishu. The only reason Xamar is so politically volatile is because foreign powers recognize it as the capital. When you want to control or destabilize a country, you target its capital , and that’s exactly what's been happening. Foreign actors use the FGS as a pressure point to fragment Somalia while they maintain separate diplomacy with the regional states to further divide and weaken us.

Let’s be real , Somaliland and Puntland aren’t being left alone because they’re radically different or more stable. They’re being left alone because they don’t threaten certain external interests in the way Mogadishu does.

If you can’t see how supporting factionalism and political fragmentation only leads to your own marginalization, then you’re not looking at the bigger picture.

 

[Idilinaa]

This is a great point. There is also the fact that telecom companies like Hormuud operate across clan lines thus immediately debunking the notion that Somalis are inherently clannist. Even between Somalia, Somaliland and Puntland, all three rely heavily on each other and cooperate via trade, energy and services which involves no foreign aid whatsoever. Its simply economics and supply/demand. It would be profusely stupid for any entrepreneurial Somali to deny the business of other Somalis just because they are from a different clan.

Galbeed is also another example, its quite possibly the most united Somali populated region outside of Somaliland, Puntland and Djibouti and are focusing on infrastructure and other services. Why aren't they waging huge clan wars or backstab each other like the critics assume Somalis do? Because they are autonomous and run things their own way. That is the nature of Somalis.

Said Samatar documented this clearly , for instance, during Bosaso’s economic boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s, many Isaaq entrepreneurs migrated there and established successful businesses.

Horn of Africa - Volume 15 - Page 131​

You also see this trend in numerous studies: Somali businesses regularly operate across both regional and clan lines. A business owner in Xamar may have a secondary/third venture in Hargeisa, while someone in Hargeisa runs logistics into Jigjiga, and so on. There’s a constant flow of movement, trade, and capital sharing between Somalis, irrespective of regional boundaries.

But yeah Somali inhabited regions are economically linked and integrated with eachother.
This study goes into this:

This is one of the things that actually makes us very different from the rest of Africa and Ethiopia. Our economy is regional & self-driven and don't depend on western demand.

I was honestly floored by the sheer number of logistics, airline, and cargo companies that have sprung up , all interconnected. Even the fact that mobile money usage surpasses 90% implies a high degree of social trust. That kind of infrastructure can’t work if people don’t trust each other beyond their immediate kin.

Somalia is not a clannist society , Somalis operate cooperatives and business enterprises where people from a variety of clan backgrounds organize together and pool resources for shared goals. This level of collaboration speaks to a broader, more integrative culture.

But the figures ive seen elsewhere varies, it ranges from 70%, 81%, 85% to 90%. Somalia is almost a cashless society only few percentage points until it's totally driven by digital payment, it if it isn't already.

It actually shows you how high trust the society is. It fits with what Japanese American author Francis Fukuyama said and i believe it perfectly describes Somali society.

Trust: Social Virtues and Creation of Prosperity, in which he describes "the ability of various peoples to organize effectively for commercial purposes without relying on blood ties or government intervention".

It actually shows you that Somalia is not a tribal based society because tribal society or kinship based society is a low trust one. It does not extend beyond their immediate family

You can also see the low rates of homicide , robbery and general everyday street crime amongst Somali society in general, is typical of high trust society like Japan for example.

You need to have a incredibly high amounts of trust to be dealing with eachother through mobile money. When you're dealing through mobile money especially in a context where there's limited consumer protection, no strong regulatory safety nets, and very few formal dispute resolution mechanisms every transaction is, in a way, a vote of confidence.

That’s not something that works in a low-trust environment. If people were constantly afraid of being cheated, if there wasn’t community-level accountability, or if social cohesion were weak, the system would fall apart.

There is no way for the private sector to be even remotely functional if Somalis operated within a narrow clan centric framework, especially without state involvement.

You are right about Ogaden, for example , it’s one of the most clan-diverse Somali regions. You’ll find Raxanweyn, Hawiye, Darood, Isaaq, Dir , all coexisting. And yet, it’s remained peaceful and united since the 2018 agreement. There’s been no secessionist movement, no intra-Somali warfare. In fact, it might be the most peaceful region because it was left to govern itself.

If the most lineage-diverse region is the most peaceful, that should tell you everything you need to know about what the ''real'' obstacles are , and they aren’t clan divisions.

 

[Garaad Awal]

A Habar Awal Kagame can save the Somali ethnicity. We just need to find him, to be our Mahdi

 

[Idilinaa]

In your humble opinion Idilina, how long do you think is left until Somalia undergoes another paradigm shift? 2030? 2035? Its clear that foreign funding sources are drying up and the IC looks to finally step away from Somalia and give it breathing room. I'm sure FGS, Ethiopia and Kenya will protest but it looks like the stubborn peacekeeping efforts and federal model will finally go away as America and its allies realize it isn't working.

There was a thread before that predicts what direction Somalia is heading in the next year or so.

Currently, politics is dominated by an aging elite , so if Somalia is to undergo a true paradigm shift or political reform, then youth engagement is critical. It has to be a civic movement led by people in their teens, 20s, and 30s who are ready to organize and reshape the national landscape.

And right now, the conditions are ''ideal'' for that kind of shift to take shape.

- The AU and AMISOM are struggling to secure funding, and the U.S. has pulled back its financial support for the FGS. That financial strain may precipitate the unraveling of the current federal model, which opens the door for new and better alternatives.

Will the possible end of the AU Mission in Somalia open new opportunities for peace? – Amani Africa

amaniafrica-et.org

- Kenya is undergoing political changes as well. We're starting to see a shift in how it approaches NFD , less marginalization politically and economically. That’s a key regional development.

- Ethiopia is economically paralyzed and politically fractured, with widespread internal conflict. Its ability to project power regionally or influence Somali politics is fading fast.

- And the U.S. has clearly stepped back. They’re scaling down involvement and reassessing their entire approach in the Horn.

All of this creates space , for grassroots leadership, for new political models, and for rebuilding a unified Somali civic identity.

So to answer your question, if the youth organize and seize this moment, we could very well see a paradigm shift before 2030 , even within the next few years

 

[Afrax]

What Somalia truly needs is a ''youth-led civic movement,'' one driven by people in their teens, 20s, and 30s, across all regions and walks of life. We need to rebuild a shared civic identity that has been fractured, and push for political and institutional reform that reflects the country’s needs

Federalism, as currently practiced in Somalia, fosters fragmentation. If you support federalism in its current form, you support your own marginalization

What Somalia should have is a unitary decentralized government, that allows for local governance. A bottom up approach if you will, a political system that compliments our strong private sector.

Most of the modern developed economies in the world have decentralized their government structure. For example Japan decentralized a lot during its economic boom in the 1970-90s , so it could distribute services and resources to people outside of Tokyo who lacked access to electricity and other services and eliminate financial shortages in other regions. Before this everything was concentrated in Tokyo, most other regions lived like rural medieval fiefdoms.

Decentralisation in Japan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It is today divided into regional prefectures and municipalities with their own local authority and autonomy.

Norway is similar to this as well its very decentralized divided into local governments with their own autonomy into municipalities and counties.
Norway: Governmental, Decentralized and Trusted



Decentralization is a good thing if it's unitary. It promotes cooperation across the country .resource sharing and local community building and government efficiency. Local governments are closer to the people and understand local needs better. Decentralization allows faster decision-making, especially in public services like education, infrastructure, and policing.

Decentralization helps spread economic growth across regions instead of concentrating it in capital cities. Regions can develop their own industrial strengths, tax bases, and investment strategies.

It encourages local innovation and competition between regions for better governance.

Also even the Kacaan Government was neither a dictatorship or an autocracy or fully centralized. What it actually did was in a way declare Marshall Law after the coup attempt and proceeded with the plan of building Somalia's institutions and administrative frameworks.

It was unitary but It had decentralized it's administration , divided the country into many gobols(provinces) with their own local council, district committees etc and regional governors that had their own local elections
View attachment 362209
View attachment 362210

Infact one of their mission statements was precisly to decentralize Somalia's administrative structure to allow for people of every background and region to be participants in the decision making process and to make the government administrative machinery more effecient.

''They should not set themselves up as masters but should consult the people regarding their local problems"
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It really is shame how it's been misrepresented in public discourse.
Somalia Had Democratic Institutions.
- Parliament,
- local councils,
- district committees,
- Trade unions functioned as representative bodies where different sectors of society had input.

Members of these bodies were elected, meaning the government was not purely top-down authoritarian rule.

It was essentially a decentralized political participation. Pastoralists, Workers, farmers, professionals, fishermen and students had organized representative unions that were involved in political decision-making.

Unlike classic dictatorships where power is centralized, Somalia's government allowed different social organizations to act as political institutions.

Much of this outlined here:


What Went Wrong?

What derailed this progress was not tribalism or dictatorship, but Cold War geopolitics.

A coordinated destabilization campaign by Ethiopia, Israel, and segments of the Soviet bloc stirred division and resentment.

Economically, the model was robust, followed a controlled but open economic model, allowing both state-driven development and private-sector growth , until Ethiopia's villagization/de-population program displaced hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians Muslims & Ogaden Somalis into Somalia.

It was planned method to overburden Somalia's economy (displaced people increased demand for food, housing, healthcare, and education) , It strained the governments budget and it was forced to rely on foreign loans.

To handle the crisis, Somalia borrowed from the IMF and World Bank, which imposed Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) and the government had to cut down on public service spending to finance/pay back the loans.

This resulted in the Somali currency being devalued. Before this the currency was strong with a stable exchange rate which shows you how well managed the economy was.

It wasn't due to mismanagement or socialist policies failing at all. Somalia was deliberately sabotaged and backed into a corner.

On top of the economic burden, diplomatic isolation and coordinated efforts to starve Somalia politically were also at play. Powerful actors sought to weaken Somalia’s sovereignty and force compliance through pressure, not partnership.

In truth, there wasn’t much Somalia could have done differently , not without surrendering its independence or handing over its resources.

Somalia wasn’t a failed project , it was sabotaged. And what will restore it isn’t more fragmentation, but a cohesive civic movement led by young Somalis who understand both the past and the path forward.

I will tell you what I tell every Southener I come accross; the Xabashi have won with the manuscript written for them by sirdoonka kofiyar. Wey dhamaatay, create regional identity that is stronger than Alshabaab's.

Change the standard Af-Somali based in Af-Maxaa tiri into the Afgoye dialect that is more mutually intelligible to both Af-Maay and Af-Maxaa speakers. Create regional identity based on Coastal Banaadir history. Distance yourself from Somali irredentism and all your problems will go away in a flash. Foreign dignitaries and regional governments will pour money and ''expertise'' into your region.

I personally don't advocate for this, me thinks I'm way too arrogant, the idea of dancing to the tune of a Xabashi irks me alot. But knowledge is meant to be shared.

 

[Idilinaa]

I will tell you what I tell every Southener I come accross; the Xabashi have won with the manuscript written for them by sirdoonka kofiyar. Wey dhamaatay, create regional identity that is stronger than Alshabaab's.

Change the standard Af-Somali based in Af-Maxaa tiri into the Afgoye dialect that is more mutually intelligible to both Af-Maay and Af-Maxaa speakers. Create regional identity based on Coastal Banaadir history. Distance yourself from Somali irredentism and all your problems will go away in a flash. Foreign dignitaries and regional governments will pour money and ''expertise'' into your region.

I personally don't advocate for this, me thinks I'm way too arrogant, the idea of dancing to the tune of a Xabashi irks me alot. But knowledge is meant to be shared.

I tried to decipher what you said just now and it didn't make much sense at all.

If you’re talking about linguistic barriers? they’re minimal. Standard Somali (Af-Maxaa) is widely spoken and understood across the country, and most people can comprehend neighboring dialects without issue. Af-Maay speakers understand Af-Maxaa and vice versa, especially in urban and market contexts where people interact daily.

As for regional identity , Somalis don’t live in silos. The guy from Afgooye might run a business in Mogadishu, trade in Baidoa, and have family in Kismayo. Businesses operate across cities, clans, and dialects. People are highly mobile and interconnected.

Creating artificial identity bubbles won’t solve anything , it would just fragment things further, and that’s what external actors want. The solution is deeper cohesion, not manufactured divisions

 

[Afrax]

I tried to decipher what you said just now and it didn't make much sense at all.

If you’re talking about linguistic barriers? they’re minimal. Standard Somali (Af-Maxaa) is widely spoken and understood across the country, and most people can comprehend neighboring dialects without issue. Af-Maay speakers understand Af-Maxaa and vice versa, especially in urban and market contexts where people interact daily.

As for regional identity , Somalis don’t live in silos. The guy from Afgooye might run a business in Mogadishu, trade in Baidoa, and have family in Kismayo. Businesses operate across cities, clans, and dialects. People are highly mobile and interconnected.

Creating artificial identity bubbles won’t solve anything , it would just fragment things further, and that’s what external actors want. The solution is deeper cohesion, not manufactured divisions

Ah, be honest and explain every option on the table to the people your trying to rally up. It usually leads to more fruitful outcomes, you can't reach ideal outcomes with schemes, you have to let the people know the easy way out and then explain to them why the hard way is better.

 

[Idilinaa]

Also even the Kacaan Government was neither a dictatorship or an autocracy or fully centralized. What it actually did was in a way declare Marshall Law after the coup attempt and proceeded with the plan of building Somalia's institutions and administrative frameworks.

What I meant was martial law, which is something declared during a national emergency. In Somalia’s case, it was triggered by serious security threats: a coup attempt, border conflicts with Ethiopia, and rising foreign-funded subversion. The country was on the brink of political collapse, and martial law was a response to stabilize the situation. It ''saved'' the country and changed its trajectory.

After that, the Kacaan government began to build real democratic institutions:

-Local councils, regional governors, and district-level elections were established.

- Trade unions, youth and women’s organizations, and civil society were encouraged to participate.

-Decentralization reforms were rolled out, rare for a so-called “dictatorship.”

If Somalia had truly been under a classic dictatorship, all power would’ve been centralized, and participation crushed. But Kacaan promoted broad-based representation from pastoralists, students, professionals, and workers through organized unions. That’s the opposite of one-man authoritarianism.

And let’s not forget, martial law is temporary, not a permanent political system. Many post-colonial African countries had similar periods without being labeled dictatorships. What matters is what followed, and in Somalia’s case, it was mass literacy campaigns, rural development, and institutional reform, not pure repression.

The same martial law framework was re-applied when Ethiopia backed insurgents attacked Somalia again in the 1980s. If it hadn’t been for that defensive measure, Somalia would have collapsed in the early 1980s, not 1991.