OPINION Confederations don’t work

[Periplus]

I don’t know who needs this wake up call but confederations don’t work.

They almost always collapse within 10 years of formation.

Please stop using these “ideas” as politically correct ways to maintain your qabiilist wet dreams.

Thank you.

 

[kickz]

Never has been any logic with qabilists, they are like exMuslims with their illogical bitterness

 

[Jiron]

Here’s why it won’t work in the beautiful words of our brother K’naan. We will keep dividing each other and tribalism will just move to the next level. The cycle does not end


It's me and my nation against the world

Then me and my clan against the nation

Then me and my fam' against the clan

Then me and my brother we no hesitation,

uh

Go against the fam' until they cave in

Now who's left in this deadly equation?

That's right, it's me against my brother

Then we point a Kalashnikov and kill one another

 

[GemState]

A country as resource poor and undeveloped as Somalia is only viable if you have a very centralized model, but since that's no longer possible, you're probably better off breaking Somalia up into 3-4 countries, than having very centralized models within these smaller countries.

 

[warside]

We can all dream and pretend Qabiils don't exist , but the reality on the ground is every Qabiil in Somalia carved a bit of land for themselves, Qabiil is rooted deep in the psyche of the average geeljire, so I don't get this fantasy that we can bring back the old days where one man rules the country from this one city where all development takes place and every other land gets ignored, and then we chase the guy from the city and kill each other, that's how it happened last time and it can happen again if we elect a wannabe dictator.
So in order to prevent this single point of failure where if the central government falls the whole country collapses, federalism is best suited for Somalia, and confederation is better than centralization.

 

[Periplus]

We can all dream and pretend Qabiils don't exist , but the reality on the ground is every Qabiil in Somalia carved a bit of land for themselves, Qabiil is rooted deep in the psyche of the average geeljire, so I don't get this fantasy that we can bring back the old days where one man rules the country from this one city where all development takes place and every other land gets ignored, and then we chase the guy from the city and kill each other, that's how it happened last time and it can happen again if we elect a wannabe dictator.
So in order to prevent this single point of failure where if the central government falls the whole country collapses, federalism is best suited for Somalia, and confederation is better than centralization.

That’s like saying “we can all dream that smoking is bad but reality is that hundreds of millions of people smoke. So instead of doing anything about it, let’s choose a shitty solution”.

Qabiilism is what’s destroying Somalia.

Do you think the clans that support AS support it because they love their ideology? Or is it because the qabiilist nature of Somalia pushed them towards AS?

I never once said that centralism is good, I’m not a kacaanist.

Obviously federalism is best but confederalism is a signed death warrant to Somalia.

 

[warside]

That’s like saying “we can all dream that smoking is bad but reality is that hundreds of millions of people smoke. So instead of doing anything about it, let’s choose a shitty solution”.

Qabiilism is what’s destroying Somalia.

Do you think the clans that support AS support it because they love their ideology? Or is it because the qabiilist nature of Somalia pushed them towards AS?

I never once said that centralism is good, I’m not a kacaanist.

Obviously federalism is best but confederalism is a signed death warrant to Somalia.

Qabiilism is bad when one thinks his qabiil is better than others, the only way you can tackle it or diminish it's harmful effects is through education and changing the minds of younger generations, but qabiil will always exist in Somali culture, Siyaad Barre tried to abolish it but he couldn't do it and I don't think someone more powerful than Siyaad will ever rule this country. as for clans that support AS, it's because they don't have a choice, the only time some clans resist is when they demand their livestock.
We agree that federalism is best but I think centralization is worse than confederation for Somalia, because if a dictator comes it's inevitable civil war follows, let's remember what happened when Farmaajo tried to extend his term, imagine if there was no AMISOM.
So why do you think centralization is better?

 

[Periplus]

Qabiilism is bad when one thinks his qabiil is better than others, the only way you can tackle it or diminish it's harmful effects is through education and changing the minds of younger generations, but qabiil will always exist in Somali culture, Siyaad Barre tried to abolish it but he couldn't do it and I don't think someone more powerful than Siyaad will ever rule this country. as for clans that support AS, it's because they don't have a choice, the only time some clans resist is when they demand their livestock.
We agree that federalism is best but I think centralization is worse than confederation for Somalia, because if a dictator comes it's inevitable civil war follows, let's remember what happened when Farmaajo tried to extend his term, imagine if there was no AMISOM.
So why do you think centralization is better?

Let me preface this with that my opinions on qabiilism spreads to the entirety of our people’s political sphere. No one is innocent.

Somalis have never attempted to eradicate qabiil because they benefit from its existence. Siyaad Barre did not try to eradicate qabiilism but instead abused it for his own ends. Divide and conquer.

I hate centralism but I would take it over confederalism if I had a gun to my head.

Why?

Because it comes down to whether I want a stable dictatorial Somalia or unstable anarchy again.

Confederacies generally disintegrate after 10 years. Since the international community is adamant on not dissolving Somalia, that means if a confederacy disintegrates, we will have a power vacuum again.

Centralism however lasted 30 years in Somalia before we eventually disintegrated. Despite it leaving Somalia at prey to dictators and kacaanists, if you get a good leader you will last much longer than a confederacy.

 

[InaShaqalle]

I am adamant that the only way we can have a strong central government is if we essentially copy the UAE political system but tailor it in a democratic and republican fashion. Let the President of Hiirshabelle be the President of Somalia at the same time but the federal prime minister cannot be at the same time a FMS leader.

Also let us unofficially make Mogadishu and Bosaso co-capital cities of our country whereby the cabinet/ministries/bureaucracy of the FG be based in Bosaso but Villa Somalia, Parliament, Supreme Court, Central Bank, military and embassies remain in Xamar

 

[warside]

Let me preface this with that my opinions on qabiilism spreads to the entirety of our people’s political sphere. No one is innocent.

Somalis have never attempted to eradicate qabiil because they benefit from its existence. Siyaad Barre did not try to eradicate qabiilism but instead abused it for his own ends. Divide and conquer.

I hate centralism but I would take it over confederalism if I had a gun to my head.

Why?

Because it comes down to whether I want a stable dictatorial Somalia or unstable anarchy again.

Confederacies generally disintegrate after 10 years. Since the international community is adamant on not dissolving Somalia, that means if a confederacy disintegrates, we will have a power vacuum again.

Centralism however lasted 30 years in Somalia before we eventually disintegrated. Despite it leaving Somalia at prey to dictators and kacaanists, if you get a good leader you will last much longer than a confederacy.

Stable dictatorial Somalia are you telling me there is a chance such system could work?, I'm pretty sure if a president extends his term chaos will ensue and you'll not see something you can call stable.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I was an adamant federalist from 98 till 2012, but then I started to see cracks in federalism becuz the centralist southie goons such as HSM began reinterpreting the constitution, he began meddling into GM/SW/HS political process and he began to war with federalist heartlands such as PL/JL who were created from a bottom up process.

Since then I think it's wise we have a confederation treaty for a 99 year time period and then hold discussions after 99 years on how to merge into a federation when everything is stable enough to do so and with proper institutions in place based on rule of law agreed to by PL/JL not relying on if someone is good or bad leader. Madax ka nool system intay jirto, we must adopt a confederation model.

I think we rushed federation becuz it's being abused and re-interpreted by mogadishu goons constantly and it's leading to political instability between the center n regions and wasting our time and their time being in a constant stalemate.

Either that I say if we can't agree on federation, let the centralists be run by mogadishu, while PL/JL enjoy federal status and create a hybrid system similar to china n hong kong two system one nation model. This uniform model of government for all maybe itself needs to be restructured to accomodate everyone political view. If u want to be run by Mogadishu, then so be it and we should accomodate those regions to do so rather then wasting our time proving to them why federation is the only solution.

 

[FBIsomalia]

I was an adamant federalist from 98 till 2012, but then I started to see cracks in federalism becuz the centralist southie goons such as HSM began reinterpreting the constitution, he began meddling into GM/SW/HS political process and he began to war with federalist heartlands such as PL/JL who were created from a bottom up process.

Since then I think it's wise we have a confederation treaty for a 99 year time period and then hold discussions after 99 years on how to merge into a federation when everything is stable enough to do so and with proper institutions in place based on rule of law agreed to by PL/JL not relying on if someone is good or bad leader. Madax ka nool system intay jirto, we must adopt a confederation model.

I think we rushed federation becuz it's being abused and re-interpreted by mogadishu goons constantly and it's leading to political instability between the center n regions and wasting our time and their time being in a constant stalemate.

Either that I say if we can't agree on federation, let the centralists be run by mogadishu, while PL/JL enjoy federal status and create a hybrid system similar to china n hong kong two system one nation model. This uniform model of government for all maybe itself needs to be restructured to accomodate everyone political view. If u want to be run by Mogadishu, then so be it and we should accomodate those regions to do so rather then wasting our time proving to them why federation is the only solution.

Exactly @DR OSMAN , but issue is those in south doesn't wants us to choice what we want. If PL was weak, trust me they will sent harmacad or any animal militant from south.

 

[M.K]

Federalism is only pushed by qabiils that know they will lose out under centralism. So they hide under their states for their own safety. Because this is the only power they have.

In reality, country like Somalia shouldn't be divided into federal states as it creates mini civil wars among the regional states like what's happening in Jubbaland, Hirshabelle and currently in Galmadug and regional states fighting against each other like Puntland and Somaliland.

Most people against Centralism think Federalism will protect them. In reality federalism system that Meles implemented in Ethiopia and Somalia actually benefits a minority ruling class like the Tigrayans as they can just created to divide and rule people in the federal states. If Farmaajo overcomes the political instability regarding the elections and gets re-elected he can use the same games to divide and rule federal states against him.

Federalism only benefited the regional states especially when there were no central gov. But with a central gov. Central gov can divide and rule people inside the states and put create loyal mps and loyal regional Presidents as they have the most resources and the fact is most arab countries such as UAE no longer funds these regional states. So it can be sticky situation for the states against government.

I think the solution is a strong government that takes control whole country and implement strong laws and surveillance. Also, to remove Qabils and implement a hierarchy system maybe like England: Upper Class, Middle Class and Worker Class.

A poor geeljiire from Puntland would think he is laandheere compare to a reer xamar that has medium sized business in central xamar. I find this very absurd

 

[FBIsomalia]

Federalism is only pushed by qabiils that know they will lose out under centralism. So they hide under their states for their own safety. Because this is the only power they have.

In reality, country like Somalia shouldn't be divided into federal states as it creates mini civil wars among the regional states like what's happening in Jubbaland, Hirshabelle and currently in Galmadug and regional states fighting against each other like Puntland and Somaliland.

This federalism system that Meles implemented in Ethiopia and Somalia actually benefits a minority ruling class like the Tigrayans as they can just created to divide and rule people in the federal states. If Farmaajo overcomes the political instability regarding the elections and gets re-elected he can use the same games to divide and rule federal states against him.

I think the solution is a strong government that takes control whole country and implement strong laws and surveillance. Also, to remove Qabils and implement a hierarchy system maybe like England: Upper Class, Middle Class and Worker Class.

A poor geeljiire from Puntland would think he is laandheere compare to a reer xamar that has medium sized business in central xamar. I find this very absurd

Your garbage central system was used and created the worst dictator that sent Somalia to civil war.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@M.K Omar Mahmoud are creating they're own port from scratch, when I see a reer hamar person be able to do that, speak to me.

The other thing a camel is worth $1000 in the 'gulf market', a dude with 100 camels, is sitting on 100k worth of assets compared to your slum market of hamar, what spending power exists in hamar for your businesses to get wealthy, they live a measly hand to mouth existence, I could perform 'valuation' on their products and that poor geeljire has more value in his assets then your petty black market products.

The last thing u need to remember Kiddo. PL controls 3 of Somalia main market places. Galkacyo-Bosaso-Kismaayo. 90% of Somalia businesses rely on Bosaso port to import their petty graded products. Puntland is always a laandheere, that is a rule u should be taught.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@FBIsomalia @M.K has been slaughtered, he just needs to be buried now.

 

[M.K]

Your garbage central system was used and created the worst dictator that sent Somalia to civil war.

If you want power federalism is the worst kind. It only benefits the central government. Farmaajo don't even need put his army in PL or SL. It only takes Farmaajo to turn various MJ against each other such as omar mahmoud against Cali saleeban and support one against each other

 

[M.K]

@M.K Omar Mahmoud are creating they're own port from scratch, when I see a reer hamar person be able to do that, speak to me.

The other thing a camel is worth $1000 in the 'gulf market', a dude with 100 camels, is sitting on 100k worth of assets compared to your slum market of hamar, what spending power exists in hamar for your businesses to get wealthy, they live a measly hand to mouth existence, I could perform 'valuation' on their products and that poor geeljire has more value in his assets then your petty black market products.

The last thing u need to remember Kiddo. PL controls 3 of Somalia main market places. Galkacyo-Bosaso-Kismaayo. 90% of Somalia businesses rely on Bosaso port to import their petty graded products. Puntland is always a laandheere, that is a rule u should be taught.

I can tell you got hurt More camels will die especially with the upcoming famines that recurring in east africa.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@M.K you are just jealous PL can stand on it's own, while PL created the SFG that u r talking about. All langaabs hide under the 'qaran card' because they are to weak to be their own government.

Now go run to hamar and hide among the langaabs and wait for the SFG to hide your shame.

 

[Gantaal97]

Those advocating for Qabil confederation or Federalism in here actually have no knowledge what the actual people in the ground as most want a united Somali nation with functioning state institution these is not to say centralism is the best model but a true decentralized federal system is what Somalia wants in order to move forward with autonomous regions or states that doesn't split territories in to clan lines like what you see in Mudug and Galkaciyo city which has two governors/mayors something that doesn't exist around world.

Regionalism is what defines modern Somalis more than Qabil so that's the system Somalia should apply.