Can HAG win Somalia politically? it depends, they need to win 'security' wise and show large territory uu dhigmo PL iyo mamulada kale ama codkooda is 'prioritized' lower as not serious security partner let alone a state partner. Let me explain this in-depth analysis. A-lot of Majertens are slamming for helping hawiye but they are my abtis.
Hawiye asturan anigu dan ayaa igu jiro as I have cross clan ties, lakin hawiye qaawan uma socodi, that's where I cut ties nd focus on PL as I don't want to send my bah dubays into a shit fest and why I preserve them in Puntland region. My dad also wants a reasonable hawiye lakin he says dadki aniga ii la'ega way iska dileen oo sumcad laha oo wax garanaya iyo siday dalka xaqiiqatan uu tahay. He blames PL for that inay ku deg-degeen aideed, he said aideed could've been 'sayidka' kill heaps for the greater good. That's why he refuses to speak on 'Aideed' waa lagu deg-degay buu yirahda keliya.
It is very possible they can get a 'better' deal then what they have now which in all honesty is empowering the 'regional governments' who look like they want to set up a Somalia that favors PL/JL. How they do this will depend how un-organized the south is, the longer the south is disorganized this proves to the world 'inaysan' tabar jirin halkasi. This is how Somalia looks territorial for security assessment.
Bosaso to Galkayo is 700 kilometers
Galkayo to Mogadishu is 700 kilometers
Somaliland = True mess and 3 armed clans(Isaaq, Dhulbahante, Warsangeli) which means not a strong 'security partner'
Jubaland/South west = They split the Juba river, OGS need to close their territory as their voice won't be louder then Majerten as they
are the financial axis of Kismayo, if they don't show territorial gains, MJ continues to have larger voice then OG as your not seen as a full security partner but 'partial' only to Kismayo. This works in our favor not yours. Gedo is in your way which ironically helps Majerten leverage power in JL.
You can convert that kilometer measurement into 'SQ' kilometer if you want but it doesn't matter what measurement you use but they divide up Somalia into 'sector' read the UNSOM mandate back in 93, it's based on 'largest armed clan' and his territory that makes him stakeholder not a tuulo or city. They want to ensure each 'zone' or 'sector' is secured and it can only be secured by 'largest' armed clan, from there you can build a government and it won't be destroyed, begin social services, and begin working as an American security partner as long as there is geopolitical interest, in the case of PL, it's the 'red sea'.
This is why CIA selected to work with Diyano. He is now most likely given the task to decide security policies not only for his 'territory' but territories beyond including Makhir-SSC-Galmudug. Security policy shape political policies, you can't discuss politic, government, etc if you don't ensure it's CLEARED by security or else it could lead to civil war.
Now what hurts Hawiye is, Galmudug is down to sub sub clans, it's 11 clans in 200 kilometer axis and the HG are 'divided' and always have been kkkkk, Diyano will definitely 'leverage' this as they cannot 'secure' this small sector so PL remains the 'largest' armed clan in the region and therefore his 'security and political policy' is accepted as 'more priority'.
Even if GM unite their voice it will be definitely be graded 'less' important due to territorial sector in the nation being 200 kilometers, they will tell him to speak to 'big daddy' of the region who is 700 kilometer territorial axis, that's probably why they come to PL, the international community has to force them as their guided by the CIA policy. This is why PL voice is graded as more important in Somalia or you could lose 1/3 of the nation or you could have 1/3 of the nation armed forces rise up and cause a national disaster.
If however GM/HS united this would change their regional importance as they can show then they have the same territorial axis as PL, therefore their population is assumed to be similar, but more importantly their 'armed' forces will be 'exactly' the same as they assume your 'territory' axis determines your armed force capacity they of course check up on 'bases and outposts and estimate' and check your 'budget' information on security to determine if it's realistic, they then multiply by 50% to determine your full reserve of boys. So if they estimate your 4000, they assume 8000 is your reserve in full capacity. It's general rule used for all armies.
The HAG however have one key thing on top of their 'regional axis' the 'capital' which they can use as 'leverage' tool to 'Knock' Puntland down. The most likely response by Puntland will be to 'expand' it's territorial zone to SSC and Makhir and this is where Dhulbahante/Warsangeli can 'leverage' PL to make the Presidency a 'Harti rotation' rather then 'Maxamud Saleban' option or else they will not cooperate which can allow the HAG to have larger say over politics because they now have 700 kilometers under 1 leader and army plus 'casimadi' gacanta waa ku jira. But if this doesn't happen, do not cry why PL is seen as more realistic security partner for the west, mamul dhan 700 kilometer gacanta ku haayo weeye which is 30% of Somalia, while your broken up into small 'axis' like GM iyo HS, they will force you to consult PL oo ka WAYN muhimadasi. So you think you have power by having govt but what is the point hadi 'garowe iska soo haadir' lagu yirahdo mar walbo 'go'an' gaadhtid?
Hawiyow iska tashta baan idin oran laha, ma jiro sub clan politics in the world, it's all based on territory and armed forces. They then check your economic significance internally and externally. Finally strategic importance ayaa la eega or else they will treat u like a sub-clan. You can't expect gedo or bakool or afgoye in aduunka kala jeclado waa inaad calool gelisa iyo calooshasi intay la'eg tahay territory ahan ayaa la eega muhimadina.
This will also make 'Marehan' furious also as they can no longer play i'll ride myself to the office on the back of Hawiye and keep breaking down federalism because they have no region. They are the clan who suffers the most and they need to ensure Hawiye is all 'wax qaawaans' as their biggest fear is a Hawiye regional government and united capital, they will return to Gedo defeated.
PS - Hawiyow Galmudug iyo Hirshabelle ha kala qaybin, PL in la kala qaybiyo ma jeclo ama muhimadisa ayaa dhacayso, adigu inaad yeesho waxay ku tusinaysa mangaabnimadina ma waxaa lagu yiri inaad kursi badan ku helaysid? u wont garowe iska soo haadir ayaa kugu dhacayso since he has larger territory ba lagu oran, isaga ka cod wayn. You will be client state to PL, while Hamar 'somali lee dahay' oo waxaa loo talo galay in half hamar majerten noqdo sidi waagi hore, halka koonfur galbeed uu ka buufiyo habar gedir beerahisa ama wuxu waaynaya mamulkisa rahanwayn which means his getting to work on the CAYR in merka, barawe, and farms and they will be coming back to GM defeated as refugees kkkk as they tell them rahanwayn killed us cause if they dont they cud be lose their regional significance.
Gedo is in fear as he sees HG on the run saying I am going to create my 200 km axis waryaa get off my nuts and gedo said u started this shit of moving to the south and i was helping u and they go back and forth in that wax qaawan situation but HG wants to save itself and marehan wont let it happen as farmajo crushes federalism
Hawiye asturan anigu dan ayaa igu jiro as I have cross clan ties, lakin hawiye qaawan uma socodi, that's where I cut ties nd focus on PL as I don't want to send my bah dubays into a shit fest and why I preserve them in Puntland region. My dad also wants a reasonable hawiye lakin he says dadki aniga ii la'ega way iska dileen oo sumcad laha oo wax garanaya iyo siday dalka xaqiiqatan uu tahay. He blames PL for that inay ku deg-degeen aideed, he said aideed could've been 'sayidka' kill heaps for the greater good. That's why he refuses to speak on 'Aideed' waa lagu deg-degay buu yirahda keliya.
It is very possible they can get a 'better' deal then what they have now which in all honesty is empowering the 'regional governments' who look like they want to set up a Somalia that favors PL/JL. How they do this will depend how un-organized the south is, the longer the south is disorganized this proves to the world 'inaysan' tabar jirin halkasi. This is how Somalia looks territorial for security assessment.
Bosaso to Galkayo is 700 kilometers
Galkayo to Mogadishu is 700 kilometers
Somaliland = True mess and 3 armed clans(Isaaq, Dhulbahante, Warsangeli) which means not a strong 'security partner'
Jubaland/South west = They split the Juba river, OGS need to close their territory as their voice won't be louder then Majerten as they
are the financial axis of Kismayo, if they don't show territorial gains, MJ continues to have larger voice then OG as your not seen as a full security partner but 'partial' only to Kismayo. This works in our favor not yours. Gedo is in your way which ironically helps Majerten leverage power in JL.
You can convert that kilometer measurement into 'SQ' kilometer if you want but it doesn't matter what measurement you use but they divide up Somalia into 'sector' read the UNSOM mandate back in 93, it's based on 'largest armed clan' and his territory that makes him stakeholder not a tuulo or city. They want to ensure each 'zone' or 'sector' is secured and it can only be secured by 'largest' armed clan, from there you can build a government and it won't be destroyed, begin social services, and begin working as an American security partner as long as there is geopolitical interest, in the case of PL, it's the 'red sea'.
This is why CIA selected to work with Diyano. He is now most likely given the task to decide security policies not only for his 'territory' but territories beyond including Makhir-SSC-Galmudug. Security policy shape political policies, you can't discuss politic, government, etc if you don't ensure it's CLEARED by security or else it could lead to civil war.
Now what hurts Hawiye is, Galmudug is down to sub sub clans, it's 11 clans in 200 kilometer axis and the HG are 'divided' and always have been kkkkk, Diyano will definitely 'leverage' this as they cannot 'secure' this small sector so PL remains the 'largest' armed clan in the region and therefore his 'security and political policy' is accepted as 'more priority'.
Even if GM unite their voice it will be definitely be graded 'less' important due to territorial sector in the nation being 200 kilometers, they will tell him to speak to 'big daddy' of the region who is 700 kilometer territorial axis, that's probably why they come to PL, the international community has to force them as their guided by the CIA policy. This is why PL voice is graded as more important in Somalia or you could lose 1/3 of the nation or you could have 1/3 of the nation armed forces rise up and cause a national disaster.
If however GM/HS united this would change their regional importance as they can show then they have the same territorial axis as PL, therefore their population is assumed to be similar, but more importantly their 'armed' forces will be 'exactly' the same as they assume your 'territory' axis determines your armed force capacity they of course check up on 'bases and outposts and estimate' and check your 'budget' information on security to determine if it's realistic, they then multiply by 50% to determine your full reserve of boys. So if they estimate your 4000, they assume 8000 is your reserve in full capacity. It's general rule used for all armies.
The HAG however have one key thing on top of their 'regional axis' the 'capital' which they can use as 'leverage' tool to 'Knock' Puntland down. The most likely response by Puntland will be to 'expand' it's territorial zone to SSC and Makhir and this is where Dhulbahante/Warsangeli can 'leverage' PL to make the Presidency a 'Harti rotation' rather then 'Maxamud Saleban' option or else they will not cooperate which can allow the HAG to have larger say over politics because they now have 700 kilometers under 1 leader and army plus 'casimadi' gacanta waa ku jira. But if this doesn't happen, do not cry why PL is seen as more realistic security partner for the west, mamul dhan 700 kilometer gacanta ku haayo weeye which is 30% of Somalia, while your broken up into small 'axis' like GM iyo HS, they will force you to consult PL oo ka WAYN muhimadasi. So you think you have power by having govt but what is the point hadi 'garowe iska soo haadir' lagu yirahdo mar walbo 'go'an' gaadhtid?
Hawiyow iska tashta baan idin oran laha, ma jiro sub clan politics in the world, it's all based on territory and armed forces. They then check your economic significance internally and externally. Finally strategic importance ayaa la eega or else they will treat u like a sub-clan. You can't expect gedo or bakool or afgoye in aduunka kala jeclado waa inaad calool gelisa iyo calooshasi intay la'eg tahay territory ahan ayaa la eega muhimadina.
This will also make 'Marehan' furious also as they can no longer play i'll ride myself to the office on the back of Hawiye and keep breaking down federalism because they have no region. They are the clan who suffers the most and they need to ensure Hawiye is all 'wax qaawaans' as their biggest fear is a Hawiye regional government and united capital, they will return to Gedo defeated.
PS - Hawiyow Galmudug iyo Hirshabelle ha kala qaybin, PL in la kala qaybiyo ma jeclo ama muhimadisa ayaa dhacayso, adigu inaad yeesho waxay ku tusinaysa mangaabnimadina ma waxaa lagu yiri inaad kursi badan ku helaysid? u wont garowe iska soo haadir ayaa kugu dhacayso since he has larger territory ba lagu oran, isaga ka cod wayn. You will be client state to PL, while Hamar 'somali lee dahay' oo waxaa loo talo galay in half hamar majerten noqdo sidi waagi hore, halka koonfur galbeed uu ka buufiyo habar gedir beerahisa ama wuxu waaynaya mamulkisa rahanwayn which means his getting to work on the CAYR in merka, barawe, and farms and they will be coming back to GM defeated as refugees kkkk as they tell them rahanwayn killed us cause if they dont they cud be lose their regional significance.
Gedo is in fear as he sees HG on the run saying I am going to create my 200 km axis waryaa get off my nuts and gedo said u started this shit of moving to the south and i was helping u and they go back and forth in that wax qaawan situation but HG wants to save itself and marehan wont let it happen as farmajo crushes federalism
