Can Soomaaliya develop like Azerbaijan

[𐒌𐒓𐒐𐒓𐒗𐒕𐒒_952]

Can Somaliya become middle income and similarly be prosperous like Azerbaijan as Somalia has oil,gas,natural resource and
strategic locations have a GDP of 100 billion dollars.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Can Somaliya become middle income and similarly be prosperous like Azerbaijan as Somalia has oil,gas,natural resource and
strategic locations have a GDP of 100 billion dollars.

They became prosperous and established a father-son dictatorship which gave them the stability to then start exporting and drilling for oil and gas etc etc, Somalia won’t reach that stage in a long long long time due to these obstacles:
1. Clan rivalries
2. Poor transport infrastructure
3. Security tensions and the al shabab insurgency
4. Politically inept and room temperature IQ having politicians, who are corrupt and incredibly shortsighted in terms of objectives.
So what can be done?:
1. Somalis disperse and scatter in different directions and conquer new territories and settle there (Idk)
2. Somalia comes under the rule of a military junta/ Authoritarian regime
(Unlikely)
3. Somalia gets a smart and educated class of politicians who are able to function in their capacity to a high degree. (Hoping for this but unlikely)
4. Al shabab takes over the entirety of Somalia and institutes sharia law (unlikeliest choice, unpopular etc)

 

[anon2]

Starts at the top, you need leaders from all clans to have the same vision. Somalis are too short-sighted you have to trick them.

I think for Somalia to develop now they need a strong leaders who are not tempted by ajnaabis. A one party state is what Somalia needs if federalism fails. A single party that has every qabil represented.

 

[GemState]

Azerbaijan had the Soviet Union subsidizing them for nearly a century.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Can Somaliya become middle income and similarly be prosperous like Azerbaijan as Somalia has oil,gas,natural resource and
strategic locations have a GDP of 100 billion dollars.

Starts at the top, you need leaders from all clans to have the same vision. Somalis are too short-sighted you have to trick them.

I think for Somalia to develop now they need a strong leaders who are not tempted by ajnaabis. A one party state is what Somalia needs if federalism fails. A single party that has every qabil represented.

Tbh the system of government is not a big problem, it’s the capabilities and qualifications of the ministers and members of government, there has to be a massive bureaucratic overhaul, more educated and competent civil servants who have undergone rigorous training abroad and in Somalia, corruption would drastically drop, and tougher sentences should be exacted on perpetrators. A competent government can achieve big goals!

 

[anon2]

Azerbaijan had the Soviet Union subsidizing them for nearly a century.

Soviets were milking them, they had Armenian minority controlling Baku, most development happened in recent years thanks to Turkish owned companies getting contracts to build roads, airports and highways for them.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Azerbaijan had the Soviet Union subsidizing them for nearly a century.

And tbh it’s still a shithole outside of Baku where all the economic activity/growth is concentrated.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Soviets were milking them, they had Armenian minority controlling Baku, most development happened in recent years thanks to Turkish owned companies getting contracts to build roads, airports and highways for them.

These are vanity projects, they are of little strategic importance. This is meant to serve as propaganda to convert over the more wary Azeris who may not trust turkey etc

 

[anon2]

Tbh the system of government is not a big problem, it’s the capabilities and qualifications of the ministers and members of government, there has to be a massive bureaucratic overhaul, more educated and competent civil servants who have undergone rigorous training abroad and in Somalia, corruption would drastically drop, and tougher sentences should be exacted on perpetrators. A competent government can achieve big goals!

For a massive bureaucratic overhaul to happen you'd need something like a coup to happen. A military one where you can get ahold of all state institutions and actors at once. If you have proof of their corruption you can put them on trial publicly. This will gain the favor of most citizens.

These are vanity projects, they are of little strategic importance. This is meant to serve as propaganda to convert over the more wary Azeris who may not trust turkey etc

Some of the highways and airports are actually strategic (in case of a war with Armenia) and the current gas pipeline has helped increase their revenue, it was completed in 2020

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans_Adriatic_Pipeline

 

[The Oponian Guild]

For a massive bureaucratic overhaul to happen you'd need something like a coup to happen. A military one where you can get ahold of all state institutions and actors at once. If you have proof of their corruption you can put them on trial publicly. This will gain the favor of most citizens.

Some of the highways and airports are actually strategic (in case of a war with Armenia) and the current gas pipeline has helped increase their revenue, it was completed in 2020

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans_Adriatic_Pipeline

The pipeline supplies how much gas again? Also I’m sure there are like two other pipelines that terminate at southern turkey

 

[Ismacilssc]

Here what chat gpt recommends using AI to accelerate the country potential development rate by a large margin

Clan rivalries:
The government could invest in a scaled-down AI-driven peacebuilding initiative, using open-source tools and partnering with international organizations and NGOs for support. These collaborations could help provide data, resources, and expertise to facilitate dialogue between rival factions and promote understanding and cooperation among the clans.

Poor transport infrastructure:
The government could make use of existing AI-powered transportation planning tools to optimize its limited budget for infrastructure development. By carefully prioritizing projects based on data-driven insights, the government could ensure that investments are made where they will have the most significant impact. Additionally, partnerships with international development agencies could help secure funding and resources for essential infrastructure projects.

Security tensions and the al-Shabab insurgency:
The government could collaborate with regional and international security partners to access AI-driven counter-terrorism tools and resources. Sharing intelligence, technology, and expertise would help the government better analyze extremist behavior, detect potential threats, and implement targeted interventions. This approach would also enable the government to benefit from economies of scale and shared resources.

Politically inept and corrupt politicians:
The government could support the development of a more basic AI-driven political accountability and transparency platform by partnering with local and international NGOs and civil society organizations. This collaboration would help ensure that the platform is both cost-effective and independent, allowing citizens to monitor the actions and decisions of their politicians, fostering a more transparent and accountable political environment.

By focusing on partnerships, leveraging open-source tools, and prioritizing cost-effective solutions, the government can still make significant strides in addressing these issues, even with a limited budget.

 

[anon2]

The pipeline supplies how much gas again? Also I’m sure there are like two other pipelines that terminate at southern turkey

In 2021 (pre-Ukraine war) it made $5.73 Billion apparently, however since then I believe exports and demand for Azeri gas have exploded and it's estimated that they made $33.6 billion in only 11 months since the beginning of 2022. The figure is probably much higher now but it's insane to think they could make such profits all because Europe isn't buying oil/gas from Russia.

These are estimates, they could've made way more or way less for all we know

 

[mahamdov]

No Somalia is a country doomed to fail

 

[DubatDiaries]

No Somalia is a country doomed to fail

Let me guess…. “Somaliland” isn’t doomed to fail

 

[mahamdov]

Let me guess…. “Somaliland” isn’t doomed to fail

All Somalis are doomed. Look at Djibouti

 

[DR OSMAN]

@anon2 and me agreed thru extensive debate it's structural and systemic(not just 1 leader problem) and social decay(repetitive not just 1 person) which @Inquisitive_ contributed arguing no matter what the system is, it will rott and decay due to the social element. The social decay can be fixed thru ID cards and data sharing each year to list productive/unproductive clans across a range of metrics(criminal, unemployment, corruption, bad school results, bad work productivity) and presented to the nation who's holding them back and not hiding it as it will only spread and create pathways to connect those clans with productive clan to sit and learn and improve.

The structure is colonial inspired(strong leaders, ministers, judges, mps n power vested into fallible people) where-as the state organs are weak, institutions weak, human capital absent and not retained as they are gutted every new govt, plus their no shared policy leading to back n forth and cancelling each other out every 5 years leading to very small ROI. Rwanda is a good example of holding a shared course.

Our risk profile to investors-partners-allies-creditors will be always ranked risky and fallible to political instability becuz the power is vested in unreliable and ever-changing people.

 

[DR OSMAN]

The best solution is our 1% top of the pyramid do state craft, empower state organ and institutions and weaken the people inside to only delivery, create policies for it and then pass it to leaders to only contribute n compete who can do it the best, not rely on leaders of the day who's capability is limited and ever-changing due to personal/clan interest and leading to a political death cycle with the end of each govt.

If structural change needs to happen only the 1% should re-craft it and then set the course again for the leaders to come.