Can Amhara nationalism be a good thing for Somalis?

[GemState]

I think Amhara nationalism is one of the few things that could break Ethiopia fairly quickly. They'd need to stop the cope of trying to govern the whole country, but the absolute natural conclusion of Amhara nationalism is the reverting of Menelik's conquests and retreating towards a homogeneous Orthodox nation-state in Abyssinia.

I think they'll eventually make common cause with Tigray/Somali/Afar separatists. Think how Russian elite in the USSR were pro breaking up the union as they saw it as a drain on resources, Amhara's have far more reason to want to break up Ethiopia than Russians did, I think they'll come to this conclusion soon.

Ironically it will probably be Oromos trying to hold Ethiopia together long term

 

[Gaandheri]

Russians are still the second most powerful people/country in the world even without the USSR, Russians still have valuable things and influence over former soviet states, can’t say the same for Amhara even if they where independent it has no ports or anything of any value. If Ethiopia were to Balkanize it would be the Oromos, Afars, Somalis, Tigrayans, who would benefit mostly from it.

Amxaaro are only acting this way because they won’t rule Ethiopia ever again most of Ethiopian army are Oromo no single ethnicity dominates the government other than Oromos. The official languages of Ethiopia are the majority ethnicities not just Amhara, most Ethiopians today are federalist and not what Amhara wants which is centralism.

I welcome this though may allah destroy and Balkanize Ethiopia!

 

[Lahaine]

Possibly. If a civil war breaks out between FANO and the Ethiopian government then there's a chance Ethiopia might balkanize but at the same time I don't think so because it was haile Selassie an amhara king that stole somali galbeed.

 

[World]

Amhara land is poor, they need to exploit the resource rich lands of other ethnicities to develop their region. So they wouldn’t benefit from becoming their own country unless they could steal a lot of land from other ethnicities.

 

[hayran]

Somalis are too emotional, still hung up on haile sellassie and meles. Eritreans are way way ahead of us when it comes to the HOA chess game. They back FANO despite all the things haile did to them. I wish we were that clever and patient.

 

[Abdisamadi]

Somalis are too emotional, still hung up on haile sellassie and meles. Eritreans are way way ahead of us when it comes to the HOA chess game. They back FANO despite all the things haile did to them. I wish we were that clever and patient.

Orthodox Eritreans genuinely like the Amharas, it’s anything but clever. After the 20 year war with a Tigrayan led government they think Amharas will let them have autonomy after they’ve defeated the Tigrayans

 

[hayran]

Orthodox Eritreans genuinely like the Amharas, it’s anything but clever. After the 20 year war with a Tigrayan led government they think Amharas will let them have autonomy after they’ve defeated the Tigrayans

No they don’t

Sure they don’t mind amharas on a personal level but politically they stay on code. Eritreans didn’t fight a brutal 40 year war for their independence for nothing. They just understand that the main “threat” is constantly changing. Somalis just don’t get this

 

[Abdisamadi]

No they don’t

Sure they don’t mind amharas on a personal level but politically they stay on code. Eritreans didn’t fight a brutal 40 year war for their independence for nothing. They just understand that the main “threat” is constantly changing. Somalis just don’t get this

Eritreans main enemy hasn’t been Amharas since the DERG.

The near entirety of Afwerkis political life has been in fighting the TPLF and he’s playing a dangerous game pandering to the people who pose the biggest threat to his power. Because as much as he helps FANO , Abiy will have to double down and pander to Ethiopian nationalists even more. This is why he’s talking about invading Eritrea.

 

[Zak12]

Eritreans main enemy hasn’t been Amharas since the DERG.

The near entirety of Afwerkis political life has been in fighting the TPLF and he’s playing a dangerous game pandering to the people who pose the biggest threat to his power. Because as much as he helps FANO , Abiy will have to double down and pander to Ethiopian nationalists even more. This is why he’s talking about invading Eritrea.

No they don’t

Sure they don’t mind amharas on a personal level but politically they stay on code. Eritreans didn’t fight a brutal 40 year war for their independence for nothing. They just understand that the main “threat” is constantly changing. Somalis just don’t get this

Somalis need support from Egypt at this point. Egypt and Sudan would love to see Ethiopia collapse and are probably willing to support ONLF to achieve that. Egypt did after all support us back in the Ogaden war.

 

[GaradShabeel]

It's highly unlikely that Ethiopia will Balkanize, which isn't due to the west as many tend to believe. Even if majority of Ethiopians would form a census on the matter, the IC would totally oppose 5-10 new UN member states.

The best next best scenario would therefore be a confederation, in which each regional state operate as independent country with regards to their own affairs, but share a common currency, defence, foreign policy etc. Somalis, Oromos and Tigrayans have traditionally always been pro-decentralization. If Amharas were to adopt ethnic nationalism, it would surely speed up the process into a confederation.

OP, the reason behind the current rise of Amhara nationalism is a direct response to the increased Oromo dominance, or what they perceive as slowly turning Ethiopia into Oromummaa. Listen closely to them, and it becomes more evident. Their population is also scattered all over the country, hence why they oppose ethnic federalism.

In any case, since you don't have the two largest ethnic groups on board with each other, we're now back to ground zero. Ethiopia will continue being a cat-and-mouse game between Amharas and Oromos.

Too bad that Tigrayans blew the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity they had to implement a proper confederation, which would be their ideal outcome as well. From now onwards, they have been reduced to either being a puppet state (their current fate) or ally with either Amharas or Oromos to ever gain influence again in Addis.

 

[Zak12]

It's highly unlikely that Ethiopia will Balkanize, which isn't due to the west as many tend to believe. Even if majority of Ethiopians would form a census on the matter, the IC would totally oppose 5-10 new UN member states.

The best next best scenario would therefore be a confederation, in which each regional state operate as independent country with regards to their own affairs, but share a common currency, defence, foreign policy etc. Somalis, Oromos and Tigrayans have traditionally always been pro-decentralization. If Amharas were to adopt ethnic nationalism, it would surely speed up the process into a confederation.

OP, the reason behind the current rise of Amhara nationalism is a direct response to increased Oromo dominance, or what they perceived as slowly turning Ethiopia into Oromummaa. Most of them will also tell you this. Their population is also scattered all over the country, hence why they oppose ethnic federalism.

In any case, since you don't have the two largest ethnic groups on board with each other, we're now back to ground zero. Ethiopia will continue being a cat-and-mouse game between Amharas and Oromos. Too bad that Tigrayans blew the little opportunity they once had to implement proper federalism, which would be their ideal scenario as well. From now onwards, they will be forced to ally with either Amharas or Oromos to ever gain influence again in Addis.

If Ethiopia were to balkanize there would likely only be 3-4 new countries based on these regions: Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, and Afar

 

[GaradShabeel]

If Ethiopia were to balkanize there would likely only be 3-4 new countries based on these regions: Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, and Afar

What would happen with the rest of the country? We're talking about tens of million who would not agree to be forced into one country, when everyone departures on their own.

As I also mentioned, the UN and International Community would never entertain the creation of four new nations. It goes against common practice, in which a country can only be split into two, in the event of a succession.

Additionally, it would create a precedent where other countries may follow suit, which is why IC would outright deny this request.

 

[Zak12]

What would happen with the rest of the country? We're talking about tens of million who would not agree to be forced into one country, when everyone departures on their own.

As I also mentioned, the UN and International Community would never agree to the creation of four new nations. It goes against common practice, in which a country can only be split into two in the event of a succession.

Additionally, it would create a precedent where other countries may follow suit, which is why IC would outright deny this request.

Honestly you're probably right. I guess a Yugoslavia style breakdown is the only way for Ethiopia to balkanize. I'm just hoping the UN will at the very least allow the DDS to unite with Somalia since our region is a very different case from the rest (Somalis have their own country).

 

[Aurelian]

Somalis need support from Egypt at this point. Egypt and Sudan would love to see Ethiopia collapse and are probably willing to support ONLF to achieve that. Egypt did after all support us back in the Ogaden war.

Egypt is the sick man of the middle east. Their power is like that unique card or toy that is kept in its bag, no touch or playing with it. Egypt's economy is and was in bad situation and in desperate need of money. Money that sometimes comes from countries like UAE, and UAE here is the key whether Egypt will do something against Ethiopia or not. UAE is very much on the Ethiopian RSF side against Burhan and Eritrea. Egypt barely supports a country very important to it like Sudan because of UAE and other reasons, let alone trying to support a dead org like ONLF to fight Ethiopia.

 

[Zak12]

Egypt is the sick man of the middle east. Their power is like that unique card or toy that is kept in its bag, no touch or playing with it. Egypt's economy is and was in bad situation and in desperate need of money. Money that sometimes comes from countries like UAE, and UAE here is the key whether Egypt will do something against Ethiopia or not. UAE is very much on the Ethiopian RSF side against Burhan and Eritrea. Egypt barely supports a country very important to it like Sudan because of UAE and other reasons, let alone trying to support a dead org like ONLF to fight Ethiopia.

I know its maybe optimistic but what about Turkey? On the record they have been supporting Somalia so perhaps they will side with the ONLF when shit hits the fan. Just like they did with Azeribaijan in their war with Armenia. Although NATO might not like that.

 

[Gaandheri]

It's highly unlikely that Ethiopia will Balkanize, which isn't due to the west as many tend to believe. Even if majority of Ethiopians would form a census on the matter, the IC would totally oppose 5-10 new UN member states.

The west won’t allow Ethiopia to Balkanize it’s too valuable for them even if it did Afar, Oromo, Amhara would be their own countries Somalis, Tigrayans, Gambela, Gumuz would join Eritrea, South Sudan, Somalia.

The best next best scenario would therefore be a confederation, in which each regional state operate as independent country with regards to their own affairs, but share a common currency, defence, foreign policy etc. Somalis, Oromos and Tigrayans have traditionally always been pro-decentralization. If Amharas were to adopt ethnic nationalism, it would surely speed up the process into a confederation.

Ethiopia seems to be heading that way a ethnic confederation.

OP, the reason behind the current rise of Amhara nationalism is a direct response to the increased Oromo dominance, or what they perceive as slowly turning Ethiopia into Oromummaa. Listen closely to them, and it becomes more evident. Their population is also scattered all over the country, hence why they oppose ethnic federalism.

In any case, since you don't have the two largest ethnic groups on board with each other, we're now back to ground zero. Ethiopia will continue being a cat-and-mouse game between Amharas and Oromos.

Oromo already dominate militarily Ethiopia they just need to economically, Amhara won’t probably rule Ethiopia again in our lifetime Abiy may rule Ethiopia longer than Meles.

Too bad that Tigrayans blew the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity they had to implement a proper confederation, which would be their ideal outcome as well. From now onwards, they have been reduced to either being a puppet state (their current fate) or ally with either Amharas or Oromos to ever gain influence again in Addis.

Tigrayans have to be some of the most stupid people to ascend to power they fought the people who helped them get to power Eritreans and Somalis if the EPLF didn’t help in overthrowing Mengistu by marching to Addis Amhara would probably keep ruling Ethiopia. They have made too many enemies Eritreans to the north,Amhara to the west, Afar to the east.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Oromo already dominate militarily Ethiopia they just need to economically, Amhara won’t probably rule Ethiopia again in our lifetime Abiy may rule Ethiopia longer than Meles.

People said the same about Oromos before, that Ethiopia would always be in the hands of Habeshas (mainly Amaharas or Tigrayans), but circumstances have changed now.

Abiy can only remain in power as long as he’s an authoritarian leader and rule with an iron first. And obviously, continue rigging elections.

After him, Amharas could be back to power again. It’s looks bleak now, but who knows about the future?

Remember how Tigrayans used to control the military before, from top Tigrayan generals to highly trained Tigrayan soldiers, building military bases in their region and stocking arsenal there etc.

Abiy allied with TPLF during their rule, and once he got to power, he turned on them. The same could happen again with Amhara politicians loyal to Abiy.

Moreover, if they decide to team up with non-Oromo Ethiopians, then there’re still possibilities left. But in the near future, it will only be Oromos.

 

[Aurelian]

I know its maybe optimistic but what about Turkey? On the record they have been supporting Somalia so perhaps they will side with the ONLF when shit hits the fan. Just like they did with Azeribaijan in their war with Armenia. Although NATO might not like that.

Turkey also has interest in Ethiopia, the largest country in the horn. Them having interest in both doesn't mean they would support one on another. Look at the Ethiopian supplies of drones, Ethiopia got the Akinci, one of the advanced drones that is 10x better than Bayraktar. I think from their point of view, if there was a war between somalia and ethiopia, they would support a peace deal not support one on another. In fact I think they will try to prevent that war. So not in anyway Turkiye try to fullfil Somalia's Nationalistic ambitions against Ethiopia.

 

[El Nino]

It's highly unlikely that Ethiopia will Balkanize, which isn't due to the west as many tend to believe. Even if majority of Ethiopians would form a census on the matter, the IC would totally oppose 5-10 new UN member states.

The IC or the west is going broke in 10 years time. Reduced fertility and crippling deindustrialisation combined with more fervent nationalism, I doubt the west especially Europe will care about Ethiopia balkanising.

Its Uncle Sam that will be the last holdout. I doubt they will also care in 10 years time.

Somalis need to prepare themselves for this, the IC will ignore Africa in the coming decade.

 

[GaradShabeel]

The IC or the west is going broke in 10 years time. Reduced fertility and crippling deindustrialisation combined with more fervent nationalism, I doubt the west especially Europe will care about Ethiopia balkanising.

Its Uncle Sam that will be the last holdout. I doubt they will also care in 10 years time.

Somalis need to prepare themselves for this, the IC will ignore Africa in the coming decade.

I agree to a certain extent. But I was referring to how the west isn't the main obstacle preventing the balkanization of Ethiopia.

If Ethiopia 'naturally' collapses due to internal conflicts, just like Somalia in the 90s, the new emerging states wouldn't likely be recognized. You need to accepted by the UN to become a full-fledged sovereign state.

As for the Somali region, we don't have to worry since we already have two countries that we can absorb into, in the case of a succession from Ethiopia.