Uganda is probably pulling out by the end of this year, which means a halving in the number of Amisom troops deployed in Somalia. The SNA is nowhere to be seen and does not seem able to stand up to Alshabab anytime in the next few years. This leaves us in the perverse situation of having to ask for more Ethiopian and Kenyan troops to replace the Burundians and Ugandans. The Kenyans and Ethiopians are the only two groups with a permanent interest in keeping the government of Somalia from collapsing all over again. But they are also the least interested in building up an effective SNA which can cause them headaches in the future! Combine this with the incoming Trump administration signaling that they will reduce funding to Africa in general, and to the AU mission in Somalia in particular, and you can see big trouble headed for Somalia by Oct-Nov of this year. Amisom is the only reason why there is any stability south of Galkacyo, take it out of the equation and Alshabab is in Mudug in a month. Very disheartening to think about.
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