Boosting Somalia’s gdp

[DR OSMAN]

Well you should go work for the FSG, if you can get a job as a policy maker/Advisor you can do more help. Presidents dont do shit except get people to do work and when the work isnt done you will get upset. Somali will stress you out as a leader, you can do more as a Advisor, or working in a Ministry

The art of the deal isn't about being greedy or u being the pimp on investors nor is it the other way around like they do to african natural resources. The key n art is bringing the 'product' final value rate per 'unit' using global metrics, country to country metrics where it's being used or sold, taking into consideration investor 'expenses' involved and cutting of a slice(rational slice) that will allow them to see us as good partnership where their making money too, not a one sided deal, this also fosters long term partnership as we want the industry to thrive for long period of time.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Mr. Wabrii like oil, it's well known the product price is $50-100 range per barrel depending on global economic conditions but that's quite acceptable range when u look over the life time of oil production, we can work out an 'average' say $70. The question is how much of that $70 do u get is the 'art of the deal' and the 'art' is making sure u don't over price to the point ur undesirable to investors, but not under-value like africans do.

This requires economists/financial advisors to provide 'data' to HSM. Data must show him all the 'actors n expenses' involved before it hit's the market, such as the Drilling-Production-Storage-Refining-Shipping. Then we work out how much of that eats into the $70 dollar barrel unit, if it only costs them $30 dollars per barrell to cover all their expenses, their netting $40 per barrell x how many millions they produce. That's when we must demand what our 'percentageshare' will be per barrell while allowing them to 'eat' too so it's not seen as a 'loss'. If we want $20 per barrell allocated to us, we work out what $20 is over 70 dollar, it's a 30% share on each barrel. We must use 'percentage' as the final product can 'sway' up n down over time.

So their value chain will start to look like 40% expense, 30% To Source country - 30% to investors. Every1 walks away happy n see's a benefit not 1 sided benefit but two sided, that will also allow long stable partnership not constant flip flops n restarting somewhere else for them. If their expenses r 20% then re-adjust the value 40% source country 40% investors. A country is most 'attractive' to investors when u provide them with facts n figures and did your own homework on their industry expenses vs profits and where we can partner with them.

We must do this approach with all investors not just natural resources or fishery, that's why im suprised HSM just makes decisions on 'whim' without any hard data given.

 

[GemState]

Roads, roads, roads

 

[DR OSMAN]

We need a huge reform in our construction industry. Govt needs to start collecting it's taxes on land, collect it's taxes from construction companies, it must evaluate what the market rate is for buildings and ensure that money is being 'split' properly and not going 'one way' to the top, it must follow a 'value pie' chart method to ensure the workers are being paid their 'percentage' rate contribution of the final products.

For example we know what a 'villa' final construction value is, put it on 'value chart' and all actors involved in the materials-transport-equipments-build-delivery phase, we must enforce on companies, the workers will get their 'share' of the total value, not this 5 dollar a day nonsense while they walk away with 20k into one person pocket(thats the true ribbah islam preached against), how is it that going to generate 'market spending' for other companies to open up to provide new business opportunities? it won't. 1 person having money means he spends 1 time, 100 construction workers having money, they spend 100 times, causing a reaction in the market to deliver more goods/services and more investors come along to tap into it to serve the growing market.

 

[johnsepei5]

Socially in comparison to the west their is no denying their IQ curve is 69-80 range the arab n african world, were comparing the whole 'society' range vs the west. Doesn't it cross ur mind, if their so dumb, maybe their islam will be dumb too? surely u need 'brains' n intelligence in order for your islam to reflect intelligence, after all it's from the 'most intelligent one' they argue

Please stop de-railing this thread is for people to share ideas on uplifting Somalias economy not what belief system is supreme

 

[anon2]

GDP means nothing, it is an inaccurate measurement for quality of life and real economic growth of a country. 80% of Somalia's current GDP is from foreign aid and the rest if from remittance. We need home grown industry and factories that produce everything that we import. We need food production to be utilized to it's max potential. We need to make/build everything from ammunition to concrete to even soda and cigarettes like we used to before the civil war. If we can't go back to being self sufficient like we were in the 80's then there is no hope.

Made in Somalia needs to come back.

 

[bidenkulaha]

70% of China’s household wealth is real estate. It’s also how Japan built itself so quickly but suffered a massive real estate bubble that burst and they’ve since never really recovered from. As the government stabilises the country, we can have a construction and real estate boom.

It’s the easiest way but of course I’d much prefer we improved our productivity

 

[anon2]

70% of China’s household wealth is real estate. As the government stabilises the country, we can have a construction and real estate boom.

It’s the easiest way but of course I’d much prefer we improved our productivity

Construction and road building should be partly nationalized, many roads need to be built everywhere, no company should have a monopoly on contracts for these roads.

There should also be an import ban on simple stuff like clothes and textiles. Force people to locally produce those things - even give subsides for starting businesses or even give them free land to build their factories. That's what the old gov. did and it was successful. Somalis are naturally independent and business minded people, this is perfect way kill birds with 2 stones, unemployment and reliance on cheap imported goods. Everything will come back into the Somali economy too

 

[DR OSMAN]

Please stop de-railing this thread is for people to share ideas on uplifting Somalias economy not what belief system is supreme

My bad bro, I know I derailed. But my idea is we need to work out ways to generate spending growth in the market. We can start by ensuring we create 'cost of living' formula, we want to ensure their pay can cover spending on basics(water, electricity, rent, food) for 1 person, then work out formula from companies their value pie(expenses, profits, inflation) and allocate a 'share' of that to workers so wealth is spreading out to generate more 'market spending' or more 'saving accounts' for banks. But this idea money going to the top of the pyramid doesn't generate other opportunities for other investors to tap into, nor will it grow our GDP.

All business ppl think the more they get rich is the solution, where-as its well known when workers get rich, the rich find new investment opportunities and they continously grow not remain 'stagnant' due to no market spending. I wish someone provided HSM economic advice. The rich in somalia will always remain rich as they shift their investments to new opportunities to respond to the new spending they will always at the top of the pyramid, the money of the local will not go underground but into some account of rich bank or some other product or goods investment

 

[DR OSMAN]

I hope we don't follow the african model(top of the pyramid taking all the wealth) the bottom of the pyramid(penniless), this hurts the top pyramid as they have nothing to invest into to grow their wealth due to no 'financial power' engine at the bottom of the pyramid. Let's stay away from that horrendous true ribbah model, that is ribbah, that truly hurts the whole market, the rich n the poor and eventually the govt collecting less taxes. The ribbah they understand as banking is false as the positives of banking on the economy and across all actors(investors, locals, and govt) is uncountable, true ribbah will show it's ugly face when u assess how it effects the market which banking doesn't.

The rich run to nairobi or dubai with their wealth is a fact, why? no spending at the local level forces them to take their wealth elsewhere, it creates a dead market where u can't store your capital. So we need to sit down as investors-govt-worker unions and work out formulas and deals among ourselves to benefit the whole market chain n actors, till I see that, Somalia will be no different to african 'pyramid system'.

Somalia isnt at the stage of 'free market' due to large pool of unemployed n poverty, an unrestricted free market will only result in them given 'slave rates' where they cannot even cover cost of living let alone provide more spending into market place for investors to respond n grow with. It needs strict govt-investor agreed controls to benefit their tax revenue n investor long term growth. Recouping all ur profits and keeping ur expenses low is the model they use now. But that leaves worker with no financial tank to generate more spending, so in the short-term investor win but in the long term they dont as they cant reinvest n need to run to other countries where they set up their market for 'real growth' from it's local base as the engine and investors keep following the growth of locals by responding with investments, this then grows investors wealth continously while worker base are growing

 

[DR OSMAN]

Dr Osman is a misunderstood 'cat', I want the best 4 Somalis, my criticism isn't 'empty' like other Somalis either, If I don't provide a solution or something that they can 'explore n test' first, even as a 'pilot' model in a small area to see it's outcomes, I keep my mouth shut, im not like USC who says 'siyad hala riddo' and then offer nothing to replace it with. My criticism is linked to solutions at all time, if their no solution, I will allow the existing system to exist even if I see it's not producing any desired results, since it's better then a 'vaccuum' which is the worst outcome.

But bring investors in n tell them the reason why ur running to nairobi n mid-east n turkey and everywhere else is due to your small short term investment strategies, u keep your expenses low n maximize profits which only benefits 1 or a 'few shareholders' while the bulk majority of the market have no finances to create spending conditions if they did they wud stay in somalia to re-invest into new industries as they grow to respond to the worker wealth.

Tell them it's in their long term interest to sit down with govt n worker representatives of each industry and work out 'value pie' arrangement of the company wealth where the investor has his profit while workers get a portion that covers(single worker expenses on cost of living plus a margin percentage to generate savings or further buying into the market) either way investors will dump their profits into banks to manage their accounts or they will respond by creating more businesses to tap into the worker spending, that's long term model, that will ensure eventually foreigners even come to tap into the pool of wealth spread out.

But somaliyay do not expect the pyramid system where the top takes all work, they don't generate spending, it's only 1 person, infact its dangerous to long term weath as inflation eats into their capital just sitting there, so they have no choice but to invest into foreign markets where the 'workers' are spending. Why don't u create the same conditions in somalia, baffles me, why run to foreign markets who created the basic conditions for their workers to cover cost of living n have little margin extra for savings/spending. See why I pity Somalis, even if you show them the reality, they won't accept it for the status quo

 

[DR OSMAN]

My formula for each individual worker percentage of the value pie of their business is the following.

1 Worker expenses to cover their (cost of living) + a perentage share assigned to 'market spending or savings of the business value. This must be 'percentage' as the business grows in value, their percentage remains the same. The cost of living expenses must always include a (5%) yearly increases as an 'average' over a long-time. If Somalis applied that model to each industry, so much wealth will be in millions of ppl hand who will 'generate' immediate spending into the market place, this will then benefit investors who re-invest to respond, this benefits govt as taxes grow, this then gets the eye of foreigners 'heck' the first african market where there is opportunities. Somalia will be the first african country to create a 'market' formula that actually works for all actors and guarantees growth over the long period and counters the african 'pyramid' system.

 

[DR OSMAN]

If u want a practical example.

Worker 1 cost of living expenses is 300 a month to rent 1 room, cover electricity, water, transport, food is a pretty good average. Then add 5% inflation in every new year period to ensure it can weather the inflation storm. This keeps wages at least covering the basics no matter the fiscal conditions. Then bring the 'value' pie of the industry/sector as a whole, break it down into businesses and assess it's current value, allocate a percentage for 'workers' to split the value, ensure it's a percentage not 'fixed' rate as the value changes over time, the worker percentage remains intact keeping up.

Now tell me that model won't trigger millions of workers to spend in our market their 'excess wealth' and tell me how investors won't run and respond to create more goods/services now their capital is growing? Govt collects more taxes as a whole due to market growing constantly.

Foreigners will come rushing in seeing the model will work for the long term. U just need to convince investors 'money isnt about just short term gain' yes u gain in the short-term by giving them 1 dollar a day, but then when u take the largest slice for yourself, u will find no opportunities to re-invest as the workers have no excess wealth, u will either lose that money thru inflation as it sits idle or u will rush to foreign markets who did this model I am telling u too.

Plus sharaf iyo karaamo ayaad yeelanaysaa in aduunka as they see u know how money making isn't about short term gains only but also 'long term yields'. So to the investor group i will conclude as dr osman 'yes in the short term u lose' by allocating more to workers from ur company value pie, but in the long term u win as u will reinvest to re-capture that spending by investing into new industries to recapture it.

All the investor have to come to agreement on this model that benefits all of them to create more industries when worker wealth is being spread out to millions of ppl, eventually foreigners will come running to tap into it like u do by running to their country.

 

[Shangani]

1. Encouraging private sector investment: The government can create a business-friendly environment by reducing regulations and taxes, improving infrastructure, and promoting entrepreneurship. This can attract foreign investors and stimulate domestic investment.
2. Developing key sectors: Somalia has a strong agricultural sector, and the government could invest in infrastructure and technology to improve production and exports. Other sectors such as tourism, fisheries, and telecommunications could also be developed to create jobs and increase economic activity.
3. Promoting regional trade: Somalia is strategically located in the Horn of Africa, and the government can encourage regional trade by developing transportation and communication networks and establishing free trade agreements with neighboring countries. Especially in East Africa, the Middle East and Indian Ocean.
4. Improving public services: Providing access to essential services such as healthcare, education, and sanitation can improve the standard of living and increase productivity, leading to higher GDP.
5. Addressing security challenges: Somalia has faced significant security challenges in recent years, which have negatively impacted economic growth. Addressing these challenges and improving security can help create a more stable environment for businesses and investors.

It's important to note that boosting GDP is a long-term process that requires sustained investment and effort. A comprehensive approach that addresses multiple factors affecting economic growth is likely to be the most effective.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Do not worry about 'skilled' worker pool, once we set the optimal conditions for the unskilled, the skilled market will always be a 'rate' and 'condition' above the unskilled. It will re-adjust itself beautifully to the market conditions, but this free market nonsense without investors/govt/unskilled worker representatives sitting down n working out a deal for everyone long term interest n benefit makes me fume that they following the african pyramid economic model.

 

[DR OSMAN]

1. Encouraging private sector investment: The government can create a business-friendly environment by reducing regulations and taxes, improving infrastructure, and promoting entrepreneurship. This can attract foreign investors and stimulate domestic investment.
2. Developing key sectors: Somalia has a strong agricultural sector, and the government could invest in infrastructure and technology to improve production and exports. Other sectors such as tourism, fisheries, and telecommunications could also be developed to create jobs and increase economic activity.
3. Promoting regional trade: Somalia is strategically located in the Horn of Africa, and the government can encourage regional trade by developing transportation and communication networks and establishing free trade agreements with neighboring countries. Especially in East Africa, the Middle East and Indian Ocean.
4. Improving public services: Providing access to essential services such as healthcare, education, and sanitation can improve the standard of living and increase productivity, leading to higher GDP.
5. Addressing security challenges: Somalia has faced significant security challenges in recent years, which have negatively impacted economic growth. Addressing these challenges and improving security can help create a more stable environment for businesses and investors.

It's important to note that boosting GDP is a long-term process that requires sustained investment and effort. A comprehensive approach that addresses multiple factors affecting economic growth is likely to be the most effective.

Yes I prefer a holistic approach not one model is best, but taking the good points of multiple models and creating our own customized excellent model.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Do not worry about 'skilled' worker pool, once we set the optimal conditions for the unskilled, the skilled market will always be a 'rate' and 'condition' above the unskilled. It will re-adjust itself beautifully to the market conditions, but this free market nonsense without investors/govt/unskilled worker representatives sitting down n working out a deal for everyone long term interest n benefit makes me fume that they following the african pyramid economic model.

Let's agree investment needs consumers market at least, and discuss how to create that consumer market which will inevitably be linked to 'workers' and incomes

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Shangani let's bring in economic models of china/west/mid-east and let's see how their actors n value chain operate and the amount of inputs that are put in place by investors/govt/worker representatives to control it.

At least lets agree to that if u guys don't think my model is provable. I can guarantee u that my model if applied as pilot trial to just 'one industry' say 'construction' and we measure the gains on the market monthly/quarterly/yearly, u will see the businesses all benefiting from this new consumer pool, unlike the african pyramid model where the investors take the largest share and do not create more consumption as one person only needs 1 bread, not 1 million bread as will be the case for workers havin wealth.

That 1 million bread equation will spread out to other consumption business like building homes, purchasing tech, internet, clothing or saving accounts, the investor class will find new opportunities to tap into continously, ensuring they remain on the the top of the pyramid. But that small group of 100 investor class will only generate 100 homes, 100 bread, 100 phones or internet, it's unworkable model for market growth.

 

[Shangani]

At the end of the day any model is better than whatever caveman Economics we currently have going on back home. Its the same with politics I would take any political theory over 4.5 caveman activities. Somalia is a hundred behind the rest of Africa let alone the world.

@Shangani let's bring in economic models of china/west/mid-east and let's see how their actors n value chain operate and the amount of inputs that are put in place by investors/govt/worker representatives to control it.

At least lets agree to that if u guys don't think my model is provable. I can guarantee u that my model if applied as pilot trial to just 'one industry' say 'construction' and we measure the gains on the market monthly/quarterly/yearly, u will see the businesses all benefiting from this new consumer pool, unlike the african pyramid model where the investors take the largest share and do not create more consumption as one person only needs 1 bread, not 1 million bread as will be the case for workers havin wealth.

That 1 million bread equation will spread out to other consumption business like building homes, purchasing tech, internet, clothing or saving accounts, the investor class will find new opportunities to tap into continously, ensuring they remain on the the top of the pyramid. But that small group of 100 investor class will only generate 100 homes, 100 bread, 100 phones or internet, it's unworkable model for market growth.

 

[Macawisley]

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Get rid of Shabaab like fully.