Bantu majority provinces in Somalia

[bidenkulaha]

No sh*t

I can't even imagine trying to clear the bushes of those tropical lands. We've seen how Congo has failed at getting rid of their rebels/insurgents hiding in their forests and getting ambushed regularly. Good luck to whoever is taking on that impossible mission

We will reach a deal

 

[GaradShabeel]

We will reach a deal

That's not for you decide. The FMS in question have to make that decision independently. HSM have promised to clear them, also with a timeline, so it will look bad on his end by not following through.

 

[bidenkulaha]

That's not for you decide. The FMS in question have to make that decision independently. HSM have promised to clear them, also with a timeline, so it will look bad on his end too.

The Shabaab war has nothing to do with the FMS. HSM is leading it and that’s his redline to go the South and give LG and Madoobe their extension and potential backing for next election

 

[bidenkulaha]

Yeah, FMS have nothing to do with AS, but if a certain FMS doesn't want the war to end until AS are cleared, why not continue?

And if he has redline, why promise that he will clear them? Sounds conflicting

I added a bit more. He’s blackmailing them

 

[GaradShabeel]

I added a bit more. He’s blackmailing them

In that case, how far do you think that the war will go on before they slow down or even 'quit' the battle on the ground?

 

[convincation]

They’re just zero likelihood of a Bantu macawiisley headed there. A very unarmed clan and also no interest in the ethnic Somalis to arm them to take it.

I heard Biimaal (Jileec) are in the process of organising their Macwiisley for Jamaame. If more local clans where to denounce AS and join the Macwiisley in exchange for government arms the Jubaland/SWS operation won’t be as hard as people think

The recent madowweyne uprising gave him a boost of confidence. Let him have his (delusional) moment

My eyes widened when I read him say Middle shabelle. Middle shabelle is the most homogenous gobol south of Galgaduud going by just Mudulood vs the rest, not even Jileec vs Jareêr.

 

[GaradShabeel]

I heard Biimaal (Jileec) are in the process of organising their Macwiisley for Jamaame. If more local clans where to denounce AS and join the Macwiisley in exchange for government arms the Jubaland/SWS operation won’t be as hard as people think

I do think that most clans will end up deserting AS and their hardcore supporters when they are cornered and left with no other choice. But the war must go on for a while and capture a significant land in KG and JL beforehand.

 

[kulane]

Middle shabelle?

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waryaa the dhoobey part of the gobol has 2 times more people than the deex part of middle shabelle . dhoobey is 90 percent bantu.

 

[Yusuf Abdi Ali Rashid]

I heard Biimaal (Jileec) are in the process of organising their Macwiisley for Jamaame. If more local clans where to denounce AS and join the Macwiisley the Jubaland/SWS operation won’t be as hard as people think

My eyes widened when I read him say Middle shabelle. Middle shabelle is the most homogenous gobol south of Galgaduud going by just Mudulood vs the rest, not even Jileec vs Jareêr.

False, Jaree’rweyne make up the majority of the most populated district in middle shabelle. These are Abgaal words not mine.

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[bidenkulaha]

In that case, how far do you think that the war will go on before they slow down or even 'quit' the battle on the ground?

As long as they are surrounded in Jubba Dhexe and there’s a strong likelihood of Jilib falling I can see them giving up if the deal is right.

Not affirmative but it’s what the gov is trying to do. Have them in one corner in Jubbada. KG and Gedo degmos are already liberated but they’re islands. Opening up the roads won’t be the hardest task after Shabaab is split in pieces between that area with no supply lines

Problem with no deal is they’ll turn into a terrorist group with no land but focused on explosions.

Hopefully this scenario happens, a very weak Shabaab signs deal with FGS that they confirm the new Somali constitution after negotiations is Islamic and demand all foreign troops leave Somalia which coincides with ATMIS pullout.

 

[El Nino]

I do think that most clans will end up deserting AS and their hardcore supporters when they are cornered and left with no other choice. But the war must go on for a while and capture a significant land in KG and JL beforehand.

I expect shabaabs ranks to crumble after missiles start raining down on them and also artillery.

 

[El Nino]

Just clocked that you guys gave this mentally retarded troll 2 pages The guy is whoring himself for attention, we gotta ignore him.

 

[Fisherman 75]

False, Jaree’rweyne make up the majority of the most populated district in middle shabelle. These are Abgaal words not mine.

Jowhar is the most populated as it has the most clans. Mudulood, Gaaljecel, Bantu even some xl who lived there since the 30’s. Post 1991 huge influx of harti abgaal from rural hinterland areas so I think the district today tips in our favour. Every other district is majority/solely us. Middle Shabelle has a population of nearly a million. We good over there

 

[GaradShabeel]

As long as they are surrounded in Jubba Dhexe and there’s a strong likelihood of Jilib falling I can see them giving up if the deal is right.

Not affirmative but it’s what the gov is trying to do. Have them in one corner in Jubbada. KG and Gedo degmos are already liberated but they’re islands. Opening up the roads won’t be the hardest task after Shabaab is split in pieces between that area with no supply lines

Problem with no deal is they’ll turn into a terrorist group with no land but focused on explosions.

Didn't think about that factor. Dealing with insurgency is one hell of a task.

It's will end like last time with ICU when more 'moderates' will leave and settle for a political party or whatever option is on the table and others will place their bet on fighting until the last man and afterwards continue with their qarxis from hideouts/abroad.

Now that AS are being cleared, how do they even make sure that a land is free? Is it once everyone has laid down their arms? In that case, they'll still have many sympathizers remaining despite no territorial control. Just look at the attacks in Xamar.

As long as their ideology is not defeated and every AS member aren't de-radicalized through a gov't controlled program (defecting isn't enough) they'll still pose a risk/threat.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Didn't think about that factor. Dealing with insurgency is one hell of a task.

It's will end like last time with ICU when more 'moderates' will leave and settle for a political party or whatever option is on the table and others will place their bet on fighting until the last man and afterwards continue with their qarxis from hideouts/abroad.

Now that AS are being cleared, how do they even make sure that a land is free? Is it once everyone has laid down their arms? In that case, they'll still have many sympathizers remaining despite no territorial control. Just look at the attacks in Xamar.

As long as their ideology is not defeated and every AS member aren't de-radicalized through a gov't controlled program (defecting isn't enough) they'll still pose a risk/threat.

Absolutely the FGS has to deal with the complaints that the constitution isn’t Islamic and allows occupying gaalo forces.

These two things being solved will lead to strong ideological loss to khawaarij movement

 

[Yusuf Abdi Ali Rashid]

Jowhar is the most populated as it has the most clans. Mudulood, Gaaljecel, Bantu even minority xl who lived there since the 30’s. Post 1991 huge influx of harti abgaal from rural areas so I think the district today tips in our favour. Every other district is majority/solely us. Middle Shabelle has a population of nearly a million. We good over there

Tips in your favor now, but 14 days ago it took both Mudulood/Gaaljecel to outnumber the mighty Madow’weyne population

 

[Fisherman 75]

Tips in your favor now, but 14 days ago it took both Mudulood/Gaaljecel to outnumber the mighty Madow’weyne population

If you add our brother clan Mobleen cismaan who are mayor of the town for a reason, we outnumber the Bantus in the district just as Mudulood. Main point is jileec outnumber j*reer today due to demographic shifts post 1991.

 

[convincation]

waryaa the dhoobey part of the gobol has 2 times more people than the deex part of middle shabelle . dhoobey is 90 percent bantu.

Eebow you can’t tell me about my own Gobol where my dad grew up in and half my family still reside in. Madow natively live only on the riverbeds, and even that has been expanded into now. Today my subclan Celi Agoonyar are the sole owners of Mahadaay who are both Gudomiye of the distruct and mayor of the town, with Kuxigeen going to Cabdalla Agoonyar. Few hundred years back Mahadaay was a Shiidle town and today there is not a single Shiidle town anywhere between Mahadaay and Ceelbaraf. Cali fool dhere, a farming town east of Mahadaay is also populated by Celi and Cabdalla farmers who have settled down on all the farms between the two towns. The closest Shiidle settlement is Diinlaabe along the river north of it where Madow work on Abgaal farms alongside Baadicade native farmers.

This is just In Mahadaay, in Jowhar district the Yusuf Galmaax subclans farm in everything south east of the town, while all the farms east of the city itself is Mooblen and a sea of Harti up to Biyocade. This Harti stronghold is where the bulk of Jowhar district population comes from, and all this is without mentioning Warsangali who dominate the city and the farms surrounding it and west of it. Moobleen are Jowhar mayor and also live in the west of the river between Jowhar and Qalimow, down to Balcad and into LS. Balcad district is Reer mataan and Celi exclusively, Xawaadlay town along the river formerly shiidle is now equally populated by Celi. It also goes without saying that the entirety of Middle Shabelle is Abgaal pasture for our livestock, which madow don’t have any of.

All in all S.dhexe is 85%+ Mudulood inhabited, there’s a reason the gobol has 11 Mudulood MPs vs Madow 2. Only a non native would think otherwise

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Mudulood percentage is definitely somewhere between 70 - 80%. For those who know the region well it doesn’t make sense to be any less.

Roughly 90% of the region land mass is east of the river which is solely Abgaal until south of xaradhere town in mudug so yes Middle Shabelle is the most homogeneous region south of galgaduud. This doesn’t include Mobleen cismaan and warsengeli harti who live west of the river spilling into wanlaweyne district in lower Shabelle

85% seems about right for Mudulood in Middle Shabelle having looked at the 1931 census.
I thought that Hawadle figures would be higher than 5%, but they are not.

 

[Noble]

Let's not forget a lot of Bantus come under somali clans