Bamako, Capital of Mali, Near Collapse — Is Mogadishu Next?”

[moosaid]

Mali on the Brink: Jihadis Tighten Siege Around Bamako as Russian Support Falters

More than ten years after jihadi forces stormed the fabled city of Timbuktu, banning music, dancing and imposing sharia law, Mali is once again teetering on the edge of collapse....

slguardian.org

After the UN pulled out of Mali in 2024, things went downhill fast. The capital, Bamako, is basically surrounded, with militant groups taking control of roads and towns across the country. The U.S. and Europe stopped their operations, the Russians stepped in — but they haven’t really fixed anything. If anything, the situation got worse. The government’s isolated, the army’s stretched thin, and most of the country’s slipping out of its hands.

Now Somalia looks like it’s heading down that same path. The African Union mission’s leaving soon, Western support’s drying up, and the army still depends heavily on outside help. If the U.S. and Europe completely pull out while Somalia gets closer to China, the balance could break. The fear is that al-Shabaab will bounce back stronger, roads will close, and Mogadishu could end up cut off just like Bamako.

 

[moosaid]

They received 70 million from the Emirates after they kidnapped an officer and a member of the Emirati ruling family.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Mali on the Brink: Jihadis Tighten Siege Around Bamako as Russian Support Falters

More than ten years after jihadi forces stormed the fabled city of Timbuktu, banning music, dancing and imposing sharia law, Mali is once again teetering on the edge of collapse....

slguardian.org

After the UN pulled out of Mali in 2024, things went downhill fast. The capital, Bamako, is basically surrounded, with militant groups taking control of roads and towns across the country. The U.S. and Europe stopped their operations, the Russians stepped in — but they haven’t really fixed anything. If anything, the situation got worse. The government’s isolated, the army’s stretched thin, and most of the country’s slipping out of its hands.

Now Somalia looks like it’s heading down that same path. The African Union mission’s leaving soon, Western support’s drying up, and the army still depends heavily on outside help. If the U.S. and Europe completely pull out while Somalia gets closer to China, the balance could break. The fear is that al-Shabaab will bounce back stronger, roads will close, and Mogadishu could end up cut off just like Bamako.

The capital of Mali isn’t surrounded, the insurgents and Al qaeda forces are active along the border with Burkina Faso and the northern portions of the country.

in the case of Somalia, Al shabab is not aiming to take xamar, that would be too costly and long gone are the days of conventional AS tactics, It’s seems as if AS is planning to consolidate its control over Hirshabelle. They have HSMs home town surrounded.

 

[moosaid]

The capital of Mali isn’t surrounded, the insurgents and Al qaeda forces are active along the border with Burkina Faso and the northern portions of the country.

in the case of Somalia, Al shabab is not aiming to take xamar, that would be too costly and long gone are the days of conventional AS tactics, It’s seems as if AS is planning to consolidate its control over Hirshabelle. They have HSMs home town surrounded.

This is the map; you can see the capital. They have closed the roads leading to it.
But they opened the roads, with planes flying to protect transport vehicles.
But how long?

https://x.com/ug_chelsea/status/1984477912012124420

The north of the country has almost completely fallen And now the conflict in the south

The French saved Mali in 2012 when the Tuareg were close to taking control of the entire country
But now no one will save them.

The jihadists are now pursuing a long-term war strategy, knowing that the West will not continue to support these weak governments This is what shabab are waiting for.

 

[Zak12]

If the U.S. and Europe completely pull out

They won't. Only AU troops will be leaving but FGS will still retain external security support from America and Europe. That is why Trump has continued doing drone strikes on AS.

I don't know much about the strength of the jihadist forces in West Africa but Al-Shabab is very weak and doesn't threaten the country in an existential sense. They don't have the military force or logistics to take a town like Mogadishu and are more or less a guerilla movement running around at this point.

 

[JamalFarah]

Mali kicked out the French for the Russians, who have proven to be incredibly incapable in Syria already. The difference is that the FGS is not dumb enough to alienate itself from the Western teat. In the end, Washington or Ankara will bomb al-Shabaab whenever they get too uppity for the foreseeable future.

Somalia is a sunk-cost fallacy billions poured in by Western donors make it a double-edged sword. It keeps the FGS beholden to Western interests but also drags everyone into Somalia’s endless war.

A lot of people wish we had an Ibrahim Traoré or one of the junta leaders from Mali or Niger instead of the FGS, but I can guarantee you right now, the FGS, like a cockroach, will outlive all of them.