Assessment of the SNA

[Samatar03]

Somalia isn't viable as a state made up of clan interests that's the problem.

You need those interests to align and stay aligned for a long period of time until the state can establish itself. You can't do that without some kind of external threat. Right now seems like a lot of clans are resisting the government due to historical grievances or trying to avoid being politically and militarily dominated by groups in the centre.

When they were restarting the Somali state they began in the captital but the interests in the capital are not the same as those in the periphery. In fact it looks like you have a weird situation where the centre is trying to protect itself from the periphery to maintain certain interests and power. This is a weird one. Somalia is a unique case that kind of breaks the system. Nothing will work if clan interests are the basis of state formation.

Somaliland on the other hand is viable as a clan interest state because the centre isn't different from the periphery because it's the same group of people. There's a strong external threat that keeps groups unified.

I’m starting to think that Somaliland has come up with an AI Chatbot

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

I’m starting to think that Somaliland has come up with an AI Chatbot

Robots cannot lie

 

[Burqad]

Somalia isn't viable as a state made up of clan interests that's the problem.

You need those interests to align and stay aligned for a long period of time until the state can establish itself. You can't do that without some kind of external threat. Right now seems like a lot of clans are resisting the government due to historical grievances or trying to avoid being politically and militarily dominated by groups in the centre.

When they were restarting the Somali state they began in the captital but the interests in the capital are not the same as those in the periphery. In fact it looks like you have a weird situation where the centre is trying to protect itself from the periphery to maintain certain interests and power. This is a weird one. Somalia is a unique case that kind of breaks the system. Nothing will work if clan interests are the basis of state formation.

Somaliland on the other hand is viable as a clan interest state because the centre isn't different from the periphery because it's the same group of people. There's a strong external threat that keeps groups unified.

BOO!

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

BOO!

Robots cannot experience fear.

 

[Burqad]

Robots cannot experience fear.

Somaliland is too broke to build a robot they just have a guy in silver Amazon Boxes dance like MJ

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Somaliland is too broke to build a robot they just have a guy in silver Amazon Boxes dance like MJ

Attempt at humor detected.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Galmudug front collapsed due to qabyaalad. I forgot to add to my previous posts that the areas liberated in GM have been the areas of clans who are receptive to FGS.

Areas held by AS are by clans and subsubclans loyal to them. That simple.

Reconciliation and clear cut power sharing is needed. Competent FGS could bribe most of AS footsoldiers and higher commanders. True believers would be killed and families/communities paid hush money. Reconciliating and showing good results would sway away most of the shacab.

1. Alshabab cannot be bribed because they have as much money as the FGS. This is without accounting for the ideological cohesion Alshabab has internally.
2. Clan reconciliation is impossible on the timescale necessary to defeat Alshabab. There is not enough time.
3. SNA needs to be seen as a legitimate national force. This means that it has to recruit from Dir, D&M and southern Darod. Hawiye will never accept this and want an SNA that is almost entirely Hawiye as SNA salaries are likely to be paid by the international community.
4. As ATMIS withdraw, they will likely be replaced by a majority Hawiye SNA in places like Lower Shabelle. This will antagonize the Dir & Digil majority of LS, strengthening Alshabab further. Something similar may take place in Bay.

Hawiye are too corrupt/focused on stealing aid, Dir & D&M are afraid of Hawiye permanent settlement in Merca and Barawe, and the southern Darod remain in their 30 year standoff in Jubaland. If ATMIS begin to leave in large number in Jan 2025, the FGS could collapse.

 

[El Nino]

1. Alshabab cannot be bribed because they have as much money as the FGS. This is without accounting for the ideological cohesion Alshabab has internally.
2. Clan reconciliation is impossible on the timescale necessary to defeat Alshabab. There is not enough time.
3. SNA needs to be seen as a legitimate national force. This means that it has to recruit from Dir, D&M and southern Darod. Hawiye will never accept this and want an SNA that is almost entirely Hawiye as SNA salaries are likely to be paid by the international community.
4. As ATMIS withdraw, they will likely be replaced by a majority Hawiye SNA in places like Lower Shabelle. This will antagonize the Dir & Digil majority of LS, strengthening Alshabab further. Something similar may take place in Bay.

Hawiye are too corrupt/focused on stealing aid, Dir & D&M are afraid of Hawiye permanent settlement in Merca and Barawe, and the southern Darod remain in their 30 year standoff in Jubaland. If ATMIS begin to leave in large number in Jan 2025, the FGS could collapse.

FGS is planning oil drilling on the coast of Hirshabelle and Xarardheere. That area has been secured and is populated by clans against AS. Oil is FGS hail mary, Im very sceptical of it happening but Turkeys oil&petroleum minister with seemingly heavy connection to their industry has
”confirmed” happening. We will see. Hsm has spoken many times about offering a peace deal to AS. With them being cutoff from extorting Xamar and HS&GM, they have lost huge amount of revenue. USA has also hit their international fronts and FGS has freezed their assets. Both of these actions lost them millions.

AS will respond by increasing taxation on people under their control thus increasing resentment against them. I could see AS splitting along clan lines if this happens.

If funding comes from international community, SNAs funding would be stopped from the 1st instance of clan fighting. SNA is going to have to stand on its own feet. We will see who will help.

FGS won’t collapse because Abgaal and Habargidir have stopped supporting them. They will not enter Xamar again. Nothing was stopping them before, AMISOM is not a serious threat lets be real. Will make a threat on this.

Hawiye have always lived in shabellada hoose, history attest to that and other cannot deny it. However if Hawiye/habargidir couldn’t conquer it during the last 30 years of anarchy its not gonna happen now. Population replacement hasn’t happened even though D&M have suffered 2 catastrophic famines. They are the majority still. Hawiye can try but it will be unsuccesfull. Sh/hoose has a population of over a million in 2014, likely higher then that. Now it has grown by 50%. Population is mostly settled and agropastoral. We will be in a limbo for decades.