Are the 5,000 troops trained by Eritrea enough to free middle Jubba?

[Prince of HS]

Assuming that Afwerki and HSM come to an agreement and the troops return home, will they be enough to liberate middle jubba ( buale, jilib and jamaame)?. They could land in Kismaayo airport and plan their offensive from there similar to how SNA troops landed in dhuusamareeb and will make their way to ceel buur whilst capturing villages along the way like ceel garas and ceel qoxle

i belive middle jubba will be the hardest region to free from AS as that is their lifeline

https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/why-eritrea-delayed-sending-back-somali-soldiers-it-trained

 

[Dowlad]

More than enough. Inshallah our future looks bright.

 

[World]

Probably enough in Galmudug but not in Middle Juba.

 

[Prince of HS]

Probably enough in Galmudug but not in Middle Juba.

If you had to estimate, what would be AS total population in Somalia. And how many would you say are present in Hirshabelle and Galmudug? id say most are present in Jubbaland and South west state

 

[World]

If you had to estimate, what would be AS total population in Somalia. And how many would you say are present in Hirshabelle and Galmudug? id say most are present in Jubbaland and South west state

Only 960 AMISOM are based in Galgaduud, Hiiraan and South Mudug.

on the other hand there are 5500 amisom in Middle Shabelle.

So I think AS is weakest in the first 3, meaning of AMISOM completely withdrew then they could fight against them. But given the numbers of AMISOM, al shabab must be strong in Middle Shabelle even though they might not have a lot control of the region.

They are strongest in forested regions like middle juba and all 3 regions of sws, and middle shabelle.

 

[Prince of HS]

Only 960 AMISOM are based in Galgaduud, Hiiraan and South Mudug.

on the other hand there are 5500 amisom in Middle Shabelle.

So I think AS is weakest in the first 3, meaning of AMISOM completely withdrew then they could fight against them. But given the numbers of AMISOM, al shabab must be strong in Middle Shabelle even though they might not have a lot control of the region.

They are strongest in forested regions like middle juba and all 3 regions of sws, and middle shabelle.

The reason for the high number of Amisom in Middle Shabelle and also Lower Shabelle is due to their close proximity to the capital. Amisom doesn't want to venture deep into the country and therefore stay close to the capital so they can leave asap if shit turns left.

AS is much stronger in Galgaduud than S/dhexe considering their headquarters in Gobolada Dhexe is Ceel buur ( former regional capital of Galgaduud). Also, three districts in Galgaduud are under AS control compared to half of one in Middle Shabelle ( Northern Adan Yabal and funnily enough borders Galgaduud). They also have more land in Hiraan than Middle Shabelle with the whole of West Hiraan being under their firm control.

AS are most strong in areas where they receive the most clan support. So clans like D&M, Bantu ( the ones who reside in JL not the Shiidle and Makaane you find in Hirshabelle), Gaaljecel, Mursade and Duduble.

Middle Jubba, Bay, Bakool Anything past Qoryoley southwards in Lower Shabelle ( places like Haramka, Haaway etc), west Hiraan, central and eastern Galgaduud.

 

[Ranger1007]

Only 960 AMISOM are based in Galgaduud, Hiiraan and South Mudug.

on the other hand there are 5500 amisom in Middle Shabelle.

So I think AS is weakest in the first 3, meaning of AMISOM completely withdrew then they could fight against them. But given the numbers of AMISOM, al shabab must be strong in Middle Shabelle even though they might not have a lot control of the region.

They are strongest in forested regions like middle juba and all 3 regions of sws, and middle shabelle.

There’s no amisom in mudug and there’s only a small Djiboutian contingent in dhuusamareeb airport not city, they aren’t in any other in place in galgaduud. They came in 2020 for elections but never left

 

[Ranger1007]

Not enough middle Jubba is fortified by AS it will be their last stand. Middle Jubba will be the last to fall if it happens and attack from all sides is only win able outcome

 

[Prince of HS]

There’s no amisom in mudug and there’s only a small Djiboutian contingent in dhuusamareeb airport not city, they aren’t in any other in place in galgaduud. They came in 2020 for elections but never left

Vast majority of Amisom troops, if not all, stay in the airports or their bases and never ever come out. The daroods have some weird assumption that Amisom intermingles with us when that is not the case at all. I never ever see them when I'm in xamar. Only see their trucks driving past and even that's rare.

 

[AboveHeigtś]

JL has by far the most unfair power sharing formula in Somalia. As long as the pro Shabaab tribes are sandwiched between the tribes using Ethiopian and Kenyan muscle for oppression and land grabbing and political sidelining, Al-Shabaab will always enjoy the unconditional support from the oppressed majority.

 

[Hamzza]

Middle Jubba, Bay, Bakool Anything past Qoryoley southwards in Lower Shabelle ( places like Haramka, Haaway etc), west Hiraan, central and eastern Galgaduud

You are forgetting Lower Juba. AS controls like 80% of the region.

 

[abz1991]

Assuming that Afwerki and HSM come to an agreement and the troops return home, will they be enough to liberate middle jubba ( buale, jilib and jamaame)?. They could land in Kismaayo airport and plan their offensive from there similar to how SNA troops landed in dhuusamareeb and will make their way to ceel buur whilst capturing villages along the way like ceel garas and ceel qoxle

i belive middle jubba will be the hardest region to free from AS as that is their lifeline

https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/why-eritrea-delayed-sending-back-somali-soldiers-it-trained

I think they would be enough. Maybe if they also had support from ATMIS soldiers then it would also help.

If middle Jubba is freed from Al shabaab it would be much easier to wipe them out in the rest of south somalia because middle jubba is their base. Even the ones who got kicked out of Hiiraan went to middle jubba to regroup. So as long as middle jubba is under Shabaab it wont make a difference fighting them in other south somali regions