Amisom must stay until we have a competent inclusive army.

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

Yes I said it! Amisom is lazy and have been milking Somalia for decades but their incompetency is what at the very least has our state in life support. If Amisom withdrew from Jubbaland for an example it would start a civil war between MX,OG including an Al Shabab power struggle in Middle Jubba, If they withdrew from Hiiraan Galjecal and Xawaadle would finish each other. Bay and Bakool would be overrun by Al Shabab loyal clan militias, and Lower Shabelle would see a Habar gider vs Biyamaal civil war and Tunni which is Al Shabab.

What people refuse to recognize is that even an Al Shabab take over would be more peaceful than the reality which is that the Al Shabab in every district are clans and don't possess a monopoly in firepower. Mogadishu would be a whole out free for all with the government having an iota of an advantage; not enough to stay in power.

We need to disarm all these faction via reconciliation and purge our politics of clan. Federalism would thrive in an inclusive manner however this will most likely not cross the mind of most narrow minded Somalis.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

You are a very smart person. Most Somalis don't understand what the difference is between an ideological militia and a clan militia (there is no Somali National Army).

A clan militia can defeat another clan militia, but it cannot absorb the militia of the defeated clan into itself. When Alshabab defeats a clan militia, most of the time it absorbs the best fighters of the defeated clan by force. Alshabab's gains are exponential in this sense. If Rahanweyn are defeated, Alshabab will take their best militia and invade Lower Shabelle. When Biyomaal, Cayr and Digil are defeated they will be used against Hiiraan and so on. Being defeated by Alshabab does not create the same kind of hatred as being defeated by a clan. "If you can't beat them join them" is the likely outcome if Amisom were to pull out.

The 6,000 fighter figure makes Alshabab seem less of a threat than it actually is. They can exponentially grow their ranks as they defeat the various clans in Southern Somalia. There is a very real chance that it could all snowball out of control. This conflict is nothing like clan warfare, where there is no ideology, it is a battle against a highly ideological organization willing to absorb anyone who can further its goals.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

I agree in that sense it wouldn't be the end of the world if Al Shabab took over. They'd have to form a government with the FGS just like the Taliban is right now. They're in talks with the former president and ministers in Kabul. Al Shabab would need to negotiate with Galmudug sufis, Puntland federalists, and Somaliland separatists at some point. They would most definitely be forced to form an inclusive government. This is praying they behave like the Taliban...

 

[warside]

I agree in that sense it wouldn't be the end of the world if Al Shabab took over. They'd have to form a government with the FGS just like the Taliban is right now. They're in talks with the former president and ministers in Kabul. Al Shabab would need to negotiate with Galmudug sufis, Puntland federalists, and Somaliland separatists at some point. They would most definitely be forced to form an inclusive government. This is praying they behave like the Taliban...

Alshabaab will not negotiate with anyone, and they are more radical than Taliban, they will invite terrorists from all over the world, so it's not local but a branch of alqaacida, let's hope the next government removes this malignant tumor.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Alshabaab will not negotiate with anyone, and they are more radical than Taliban, they will invite terrorists from all over the world, so it's not local but a branch of alqaacida, let's hope the next government removes this malignant tumor.

Alshabab's attacks across the border in Kenya make it clear that they will not be satisfied with only ruling Somalia. They have ideological goals the Taliban lack.

 

[Gadhwayne]

I agree in that sense it wouldn't be the end of the world if Al Shabab took over. They'd have to form a government with the FGS just like the Taliban is right now. They're in talks with the former president and ministers in Kabul. Al Shabab would need to negotiate with Galmudug sufis, Puntland federalists, and Somaliland separatists at some point. They would most definitely be forced to form an inclusive government. This is praying they behave like the Taliban...

2 corrections
1. PL is a separatist state only they call it federalism. Make no mistake PLis an indepedent country
2. JSL negotiations with Shabaab. Isaaq and neighboring clans are enthusiastic clan politics aficianados. Every subclan of Isaaq and neighboring clans/subclans will repudiate what they call shisheeye ku qadhaabta magaca diinta.

The shabaabists are successful in Somalia Italiana for 2 big reasons number 1 Southerners including PL are less are probably less clannist and number 2 which is the most important reason: southern clans including PL clans have many disputes and grievances that shabaabists/ISIS try "resolve" and gain support from weaker clans. Qabiilist Peacemaking clan elders resolve clan disputes in the North. There is no space for the shisheeye shabaabist. There is less terror in PL compared to the rest of the south because there are fewer unresolved clan grievances and PL elders/community are more active in clan politics but not as clannish as the North.

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The reason ina Godane couldnt rise in the Ikhwaanist Somaaliweyn city, Burco, is because of his subclan background besides the lack of the types of disputes "neutral" shabaabists/ISIS "resolve" in the south

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Good reading materials on this issue:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/research/2020-07-14-us-policy-somalia-williams.pdf

No Shortcuts to Negotiating With al-Shabaab

The new secretary of defense's attempt to open negotiations with the Somalia-based al-Qaeda affiliate raises the question: Does the United States have conditions for negotiating with terrorist groups?

www.lawfareblog.com

 

[Bariire]

I honestly believe this stalemate and instability doesn't bring us good, so why keep corrupt Amisom to forestall what's awaiting us.

I say let Amisom leave and whichever group emerges victory, will rule Somalia and with this outcome stability and peace will arise.

We need a victorious group to rule Somalia like Taliban emerged victorious.


P,s anyone who believes the useless corrupt Amisom aka a ragtag of hungry starved African army can bring us peace and defeat Alshabaab is highly deluded and in need a dose of reality check.

Amisom is here just for the paycheck, and they can never forestall the inevitable future awaiting us just as USA was defeated and ran so will the useless starved Africans.

 

[Hared]

much as we may like it we absolutely have no say in what goes on in somali lands.
biden clearly stated the era of trying to militarily recreate states is over that clearly means
that soon amisom particularly being a poor man"s army depending on western life support
will be parking and exiting, the international community just need an excuse foe a justifiable reason
to do so and they are currently working on it, creating a military conflict out of the coming
disastrous elections and bam we have the next artificially created islamic emirates, but for
somaliland they have a separate agenda a like a kurdistan situation. welcome guys to the
next era in world geopolitics the false rise of so called islamic emirates in the islamic one
culminating in the big one saudi arabia, next twenty years will truly be a momentous period
in world history, brace yourselves for a crazy whirlwind

 

[fais]

 

[cow]

I honestly believe this stalemate and instability doesn't bring us good, so why keep corrupt Amisom to forestall what's awaiting us.

I say let Amisom leave and whichever group emerges victory, will rule Somalia and with this outcome stability and peace will arise.

We need a victorious group to rule Somalia like Taliban emerged victorious.


P,s anyone who believes the useless corrupt Amisom aka a ragtag of hungry starved African army can bring us peace and defeat Alshabaab is highly deluded and in need a dose of reality check.

Amisom is here just for the paycheck, and they can never forestall the inevitable future awaiting us just as USA was defeated and ran so will the useless starved Africans.

first time you spoke facts. AMISOM OUT !!!!

 

[TekNiKo]

You are a very smart person. Most Somalis don't understand what the difference is between an ideological militia and a clan militia (there is no Somali National Army).

A clan militia can defeat another clan militia, but it cannot absorb the militia of the defeated clan into itself. When Alshabab defeats a clan militia, most of the time it absorbs the best fighters of the defeated clan by force. Alshabab's gains are exponential in this sense. If Rahanweyn are defeated, Alshabab will take their best militia and invade Lower Shabelle. When Biyomaal, Cayr and Digil are defeated they will be used against Hiiraan and so on. Being defeated by Alshabab does not create the same kind of hatred as being defeated by a clan. "If you can't beat them join them" is the likely outcome if Amisom were to pull out.

The 6,000 fighter figure makes Alshabab seem less of a threat than it actually is. They can exponentially grow their ranks as they defeat the various clans in Southern Somalia. There is a very real chance that it could all snowball out of control. This conflict is nothing like clan warfare, where there is no ideology, it is a battle against a highly ideological organization willing to absorb anyone who can further its goals.

The west is tired of babysitting failed states and that means they will eventually give up on these failed mamuuls and FGS who hold no significant power without AMISOM. We are headed to an Afghanistan future wether you like it or not. Somalia has been in this war for 15 years so we still got 5 more years typically they give up after 20 years.

Blamw your Uncle Deni for promoting indirect corruption elections and sabotogin( rhe 1m1v fair system President Farmaajo wanted to implement.

As long as 4.5 continue to exist and marginalized clans continue to be oppressed no amount of Western foreign assistance can help us

 

[reer]

Alshabab's attacks across the border in Kenya make it clear that they will not be satisfied with only ruling Somalia. They have ideological goals the Taliban lack.

do you think they will drop that ideology and stick with somalia? tbh uma maleynayo.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

View attachment 199197

Help us out cuz. We finna give you the capital, president and parliment. Al shabab has no chance to capture Hargeisa.