Al Shabab is much weaker than you think.

Every province in Somalia that Al Shabab conducts attacks, it's their jabhad or assassination squad that does it. Even the towns they "control" are clans who pledged allegiance to them. The waali's (governor) and wilaayat(provinces) they claim are all jabhaad and clan elders ruling towns as what they call Nuquba. My abti went deep into their "territory" just to find out that they only have consolidated power in the districts of Middle Jubba. If we were to however get the clans to pledge allegiance to the government, give them supplies, and incentives to not work with Al shabab; it will work. The real reason the government hasn't won in the most recent operations against them is because of the exclusive clan system that has been sideling clans and forcing them to work with Al Shabab.

Puntland, Somaliland, and DDS are more inclusive and clans have pledged allegiance to their executives. Al Shabab lost there only yearning to infiltrate the contested areas between two states like Sanaag and Mudug. Mudug wouldn't have an inch of Al Shabab if it were under one admin or if there was better collaboration. It's worth noting that even their presence in the areas administered by two maamuls is still even minimal.
 

SouthSomaliDemond

Koonfur Galbeed Warrior
Don’t forget the Africans not leaving their base just to make double what they would have made in their own countries. My Abo told me the tuulo were from which is only like 40 miles away from xamar literally has 4 shabaab patrolling it at any time. He said the government and unisom countries are all in cohorts, the west gets to say “international Islamic terrorism” is still a real threat and these African troops get paid heavy. Let’s se how long this lasts
 
Every province in Somalia that Al Shabab conducts attacks, it's their jabhad or assassination squad that does it. Even the towns they "control" are clans who pledged allegiance to them. The waali's (governor) and wilaayat(provinces) they claim are all jabhaad and clan elders ruling towns as what they call Nuquba. My abti went deep into their "territory" just to find out that they only have consolidated power in the districts of Middle Jubba. If we were to however get the clans to pledge allegiance to the government, give them supplies, and incentives to not work with Al shabab; it will work. The real reason the government hasn't won in the most recent operations against them is because of the exclusive clan system that has been sideling clans and forcing them to work with Al Shabab.

Puntland, Somaliland, and DDS are more inclusive and clans have pledged allegiance to their executives. Al Shabab lost there only yearning to infiltrate the contested areas between two states like Sanaag and Mudug. Mudug wouldn't have an inch of Al Shabab if it were under one admin or if there was better collaboration. It's worth noting that even their presence in the areas administered by two maamuls is still even minimal.
Do you think there still going to be around in the next ten years
 
The only way to defeat AS is if all koonforian clans stop sheltering them and start mobilizing against them and helping security forces to get rid of AS
 

SouthSomaliDemond

Koonfur Galbeed Warrior
Yeah that’s next to Bariire and Awdheegle. Why can’t the government just put a base there 😂😂
Literally bro 😂 4 miles away from awdheegle and they took that this year. Mubaraak is a very important tulo though al shabaab sends businessmen who they are extorting to mubaraak to pay them. It’s kind of a tax office for all their extortion in xamar. Since awdheegle has been captured al shabaab won’t give it up as easy. It’s their last front in Lower Shabelle merca , Barawe, and janaale in FGS control they r encircled
 

SouthSomaliDemond

Koonfur Galbeed Warrior
The only way to defeat AS is if all koonforian clans stop sheltering them and start mobilizing against them and helping security forces to get rid of AS
There are no security forces to help Man U think we want these nomadic Bantu jihadis in our state. FGS is lazy only fighting fronts in galmudug and jubaland cause of hawiye/darood politics. Koonfur Galbeed despises al shabaab more than any other state
 
For a lot of southern clans they have little incentive to get rid of Shabaab since their choice is either Shabaab and some measure of law and order, or the government which in practice means being ruled over by a corrupt governor and being abused by AMISOM troops and robbed by the government's unpaid soldiers.
 
Al Shabaab are not weak. They surprisingly offer better governance & security than FGS.

Minorities and disgruntled clans will always support Al Shabaab as long as Somali politician's picker over aid.


 
Top