Abiy Ahmed to be Meles Zenawi 2.0?

[InaShaqalle]

Now with the Ethiopian federal government making peace with Tigrayans, there is a chance Abiy becomes like Meles a darling (lackey) of the West and he will become anti Eritrea and will oppress both Amharas and Oromo nationalists. He will keep ethnic federalism in Ethiopia and have a hostile policy against Somalia by undermining the FGS vis a vis puppet Somali FMSs

 

[Macawisley]

Now with the Ethiopian federal government making peace with Tigrayans, there is a chance Abiy becomes like Meles a darling (lackey) of the West and he will become anti Eritrea and will oppress both Amharas and Oromo nationalists. He will keep ethnic federalism in Ethiopia and have a hostile policy against Somalia by undermining the FGS vis a vis puppet Somali FMSs

Has Abiy fully conquered the Tigrays into submission?

 

[InaShaqalle]

Has Abiy fully conquered the Tigrays into submission?

Yes more or less but critically not on his own. Eritrea/Amhara control lots of territory within Tigray and this give them leverage against Abiy

 

[GeesiSomali]

Yes more or less but critically not on his own. Eritrea/Amhara control lots of territory within Tigray and this give them leverage against Abiy

The Tigray are weaker but not defeated. I know an older Tigray guy who left Ethiopia about a year ago, he is full committed to being independent from Ethiopia. They just need to remove Eritrea from the equation. If Abiy alienates Eritrea then it will give Tigray more leverage to oppose him in the near future.

 

[InaShaqalle]

The Tigray are weaker but not defeated. I know an older Tigray guy who left Ethiopia about a year ago, he is full committed to being independent from Ethiopia. They just need to remove Eritrea from the equation. If Abiy alienates Eritrea then it will give Tigray more leverage to oppose him in the near future.

Tigray being independent is a pipedream without me being disrespectful. Eritrea needs Abiy to contain Tigrayans before they depart and both countries reject Tigray seceding

Abiy can alienate Eritrea and simultaneously keep Ethiopia united if the West fully supports his government

 

[GeesiSomali]

Tigray being independent is a pipedream without me being disrespectful. Eritrea needs Abiy to contain Tigrayans before they depart and both countries reject Tigray seceding

Abiy can alienate Eritrea and simultaneously keep Ethiopia united if the West fully supports his government

That’s where you are wrong. Ethiopia army is non existent. Eritrea did all the heavy lifting with this second occupation of Tigray. If Eritrea pulls out premature, it will put the Fano and Abiy in a bad situation. That’s why Abiy let’s Eritrea do has they please in Ethiopia. From what I have heard they are literally printing counterfeit Ethiopian money in Addis Abebe and there isn’t much Abiy can do.

 

[InaShaqalle]

That’s where you are wrong. Ethiopia army is non existent. Eritrea did all the heavy lifting with this second occupation of Tigray. If Eritrea pulls out premature, it will put the Fano and Abiy in a bad situation. That’s why Abiy let’s Eritrea do has they please in Ethiopia. From what I have heard they are literally printing counterfeit Ethiopian money in Addis Abebe and there isn’t much Abiy can do.

Maybe you are right but surely you accept that Eritrea needs Abiy just as much as the other way round because Eritrea was under pressure from the West before 2018

Eritrea was isolated thanks to "no war no peace" scenario and was sanctioned

 

[GeesiSomali]

Maybe you are right but surely you accept that Eritrea needs Abiy just as much as the other way round because Eritrea was under pressure from the West before 2018

Eritrea was isolated thanks to "no war no peace" scenario and was sanctioned

I agree with you. Abiy let the wolf into the hen house and know it’s going to be real difficult to get them out. Isayis goal is to destroy Ethiopia and he is doing a pretty good job at it.