A plausible reason why the North is more stable than the South.

[Samadoor]

As the title suggests, I believe there is a reason why the south of Somalia is less stable than the north and this might often be overlooked when it should be an issue addressed when discussing the reason as to why Somalia is an unstable fragile state.

In this example, the north represents Somaliland, Khatumo, and Puntland, while the south encompasses all other states from Galmudug to Jubaland. The South is far more diversified than the North in terms of clan dynamics. The north is dominated by two clans, respectively Dir/Isaaq and Harti, whilst the south has several distinct clans and a greater population. There are also numerous resources in the south, which is why so many clans exist there, but this raises the issue of who gets to govern those resources. let's go state by state and pick apart the clans of each state correct me or add anything if you feel something is missing. The trend is that the further you go south, the more diverse the states will become. Diversity in Somalia means increased clashing of interests; therefore, non-state groups may take advantage of this and play members of a region against each other- For example Shabab. The North has 2 dominant forces that can easily unite their regions under their robust rule, which they did promptly at the start of the civil war. The South has so many diverse conflicting groups that it's easy to play them against each other. This is the tactic Shabab use to stay around by instigating and protecting clans against each other and from each other. The increased diversity is also one of the reasons foreign forces exist in Somalia. Add what you will.


Somaliland
-Habar Awal
-Garxajis
-Habarjeclo - I am guessing 4 Isaaq subclans come under this umbrella.
-Arap Isaaq
-Gadabuursi
-Ciise Madow
-Minorities

Khatumo
-Dhulbahante
-Fiqishini

Puntland
-Majeerteen
-Warsanagali
-Leelkase
-Minorities

Galmudug
-Habargidir
-Murusade
-Abgaal Waceysle
-Mareexaan
-Duduble
-Surre Dir
-Sheikhaal
-Minorities

Hirshabelle
-Mudulood
-Xawaadle
-Gaaljecel
-Baadicade
-Jaajeele
-Madowweyne
-Minorities

Banadir
-The nation's capital, Predominantly Hawiye but has all Somali and is a very mixed city. It is the most populated region out of the former 18. The most diverse place in Somaliweyn.

Koonfur Galbeed
-Digil
-Geledi
-Begedi
-Dabarre
-Tunni
-Jiddu
-Sagaal Mirifle
-Leysaan
-Hariin
-Eelaay
-Jiiroon
-The rest...
Siyeed/Sideed Mirifle
-Hadamo
-Luuwaay
-Hubeer
-The rest...
-Gaaljecel
-Garre
-Biyomaal
-Hawiye
-Ogaadeen
-Bravanes/Cadcad
-Minorities?...

I don't even think I'm doing justice to Raxanweyn due to my lack of knowledge and how much it breaks down into many different clans, but you get the gist. Koonfur Galbeed is one of the most diverse states in Somalia.

Jubaland
-Mareexaan
-Ogaadeen
-Sheikhaal
-Gaaljecel
-Biyomaal
-Hawiye
-Harti
-Madowweyne
-Minorities

Compare the south to the north and give your opinion on this matter.

 

[Burqad]

This is true. It’s also true that the Italians governed the south directly and tore down the traditional heads of the southern clans, the Imaam of Hawiye didn’t have the power or legitimacy to get the clans to stop fighting (also the Americans killed him), whereas in Puntland and Somaliland the Isims had power and could hold the rebels to account.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

Not only is the North less diverse but the qabiils have quite fixed homogenous territories

 

[Samadoor]

This is true. It’s also true that the Italians governed the south directly and tore down the traditional heads of the southern clans, the Imaam of Hawiye didn’t have the power or legitimacy to get the clans to stop fighting (also the Americans killed him), whereas in Puntland and Somaliland the Isims had power and could hold the rebels to account.

This is very true. Many of the traditional heads have been delegitimised or killed over the course of the civil war. This has produced the chaos in the south today.

 

[Samadoor]

Not only is the North less diverse but the qabiils have quite fixed homogenous territories

Compare Hargeisa to Muqdisho. Hargeisa is predominantly Isaaq(Garxajis and Habarawal), and the greater region is the same; therefore, it is easy for Isaaq to protect their city as they don't have much diversity. Muqdisho which is the capital, despite being predominantly Hawiye, has much greater diversity. Banaadir, Madowweyne, Raxanweyn, Dir, Daarood and all other minorities can be found there. Somali oo dhan baa degan. Step out of Muqdisho, and you are met with All sorts of varying clans in the region, from Abgaal to Gaaljecel, Raxanweyn to Sheikhaal, other Hawiye, etc, each with their own set of interests. The Hawiye in the city themselves are heavily divided based on interests on who should control the capital of the nation, and this creates a great security vacuum both internally and externally due to the great amount of diversity of interests. Food for thought.

 

[Step a side]

This is true. It’s also true that the Italians governed the south directly and tore down the traditional heads of the southern clans, the Imaam of Hawiye didn’t have the power or legitimacy to get the clans to stop fighting (also the Americans killed him), whereas in Puntland and Somaliland the Isims had power and could hold the rebels to account.

There never was a Hawiye imam. I assume you meant the imam of the Hiiraab?

 

[Burqad]

There never was a Hawiye imam. I assume you meant the imam of the Hiiraab?

That’s part of the problem. And yeah I meant Hiirab imam. But you are a konfuri so you know better than me.

 

[Step a side]

That’s part of the problem. And yeah I meant Hiirab imam.

It’s impossible to have a single hawiye imam. The clan stretches from the outskirts of Addis Ababa to Mogadishu and from Mudug’s coast to Guji and Bale zone. We all have our own Ugas, Garaad, Imam etc.

The south is in a mess because that’s the breadbasket of the nation. Its population is 7x the north with farms and rivers.

 

[Magan Joseph]

Jubaland
-Ogaden
-Harti
-Marexan
-Minorities

Compare the south to the north and give your opinion on this matter.

From this map we can see that Ogaden is clearly the majority in Jubaland.


To answer your question, the south is less stable simply because the capital is situated there so it’s vulnerable to most attacks from terrorists and it gets the most attention. What’s worse is that the capital and surrounding areas are diverse some ajnabi groups live there who don’t care about state building and would only want to destroy things they hate the Somali race. The north does not have this problem bc majority of the people that live there are Somali and Somali people are generally peaceful.

 

[Zak12]

The north is more stable because it wasn't where the civil war started. When the country broke down, SNM and SSDF quickly managed to carve out their own states, Somaliland and Puntland respectively thanks in part to the clan homogeneity. As you mentioned, the south is far more diverse and had more resources so there was way more fighting. The rise of ICU in the south managed to put down the warlords but its collapse in 2006 led way to Al Shabab.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I made this map a decade ago

 

[Samadoor]

I made this map a decade ago
View attachment 326118

There are way too many, and that's the tip of the iceberg in understanding the dynamics of the South. Borders between southern clans aren't strictly demarcated, so it's pretty much a boiling pot. The dynamics have changed over the civil war and the number of actors with varied interests has even increased. The North had a maximum of 5 dominant rebel factions, whereas the South had multiple that kept breaking down into more.

 

[Askari]

North or south,they all Somalis.they leaders in the south are just Little bit more retarded but not by much

 

[wheel]

You make it sound like these small clans have had any power during much of the warlord civil era. In every region there is a clan or two that heavily dominate over all others, and the small clans usually are powerless. The HG dominated or had power from the central regions all the way to parts of middle juba and kismayo and even controlled baidoa for a period of time. Imagine this clan used this power to make peace with hawiye kisnmen in xamar used there force of arms to help establish a state in the areas they controlled and cede control to the local clans. But instead these warlords preffered increasing their power and money through illicit gains like using minority clans as forced labour and shooting targets.
I dont buy this clan diversity excuse, 90% of civil war in south central Somalia its basically a few clans/subclans calling the shots. Even medium sized clans like gaaljecel are irrelevant.

 

[Gemstone]

I made this map a decade ago
View attachment 326118

You can group all of those clans into three major subdivisions. Like OP has done for Northern Somalia.

• Hawiye/Samaale
• Reewin/D&M
• Minorities(Jrwerweyne/Eyle/Benadiri)

Or you can use their livelihoods as subdivision.

• Rural/Farmers
• Urban city dwellers
• Nomads

The premise of this thread is ridiculous, as if diverse communities can't get along by default. There is more cultural and ethnic diversity in a midsized town in Kenya/Tanzania than all of Somaliweyn; they (Tanzanians) are getting along just fine. Our core problem are as follows foreign interference and a lack of reliable annual rain.

 

[Misil]

Well of course this is the main reason. Land is much more hotly contested too. Every inch of farming or grazing land is important. Concept of no man’s land which I believe is more prevalent in the north is hard to find in the south.

There is no reason why my Reewin for example should break down further than Siyeed and Sagaal. It is unacceptable that sub sub (x10..) clans act as “independent” blocks with their own traditional elders and political representation as sovereigns

 

[Samadoor]

You make it sound like these small clans have had any power during much of the warlord civil era. In every region there is a clan or two that heavily dominate over all others, and the small clans usually are powerless. The HG dominated or had power from the central regions all the way to parts of middle juba and kismayo and even controlled baidoa for a period of time. Imagine this clan used this power to make peace with hawiye kisnmen in xamar used there force of arms to help establish a state in the areas they controlled and cede control to the local clans. But instead these warlords preffered increasing their power and money through illicit gains like using minority clans as forced labour and shooting targets.
I dont buy this clan diversity excuse, 90% of civil war in south central Somalia its basically a few clans/subclans calling the shots. Even medium sized clans like gaaljecel are irrelevant.

You might initially think all the diverse clans are irrelevant, but they exert some level of influence and power in their microregion. There's a reason shabaab is able to form many so many beyca deals playing each subclan against the other.

 

[wheel]

You might initially think all the diverse clans are irrelevant, but they exert some level of influence and power in their microregion. There's a reason shabaab is able to form many so many beyca deals playing each subclan against the other.

I agree that in the alshabab era these minority tribes are more influential because they can contribute money and most importantly manpower due to the fact that if alshabab wasnt there the big clans would dominate them.
If alshabab leaves again the big clan will go back to calling the shots, and just like in puntland (MX saleeban clans) and somaliland (HA, HJ, GX) these major powerbrokers will need to sit at the table and figure out how to powershare instead of one subclan (HG) trying to conquer the entirety of south central somalia (which is unthinkable in the north).
When its every man for himself like it was in the warlord era these small clans are really not that important like in the north.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I consider the South langaab. Landheere has secured bosaso to gaalkacyo which is 750km and same land mass as gaalkacyo to hamar which is shared by 100 clans. Why can 1 clan secure 220 000 sq km yet the southern clans combined secured the same territory as a sub clan of darod? That's the perspective i look at it and since 1800s till today its the north that are the power players of the South.

I consider the southies langaabs untill someone answers why can't you secure the same.landmass as Majerteen. GM plus HS land mass is only our north east land holdings not including a huge slice of doolo in ogadeniya and Jubaland. I'm.proud of my ancestors Geesinimo.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Magan Joseph why can't ppl see it from my compass somali wayne perspective.

The Central zone is Darod and Hawiye as 50/50 split.

The South zone split between hawiye, darod, digil iyo mirifle.

The East totally Harti.

The West zone totally Absame and minorities.

Waryaa how is it possible one sub clan of darod the majerten hold the same.land mass as GM and HS? Why noone questions how did this happen? It would baffle me for years and I concluded we have brave ancestor.

I want to honor the legacy of my ancestors bravery and not tanasul or play 4.5 affirmative action crapola. If your so strong you wouldn't be hiding in tuulos shared by 100 clans in the south or hiding under somali name in the capital. Anigu manaxe waa naxarista keliya.