Galmudug-State
VIP
Mashallah. Despite our economy being thrashed by nacas Farmajoo. Mogadishu will now start to boom again. Even other people see the potential
A Kenyan journalist believes Mogadishu will be one of Africa's Largest cities
- Thread starter Galmudug-State
- Start date
The UN projections of Mogadishu's future is based on the assumption that people from all over Somalia will urbanize in the capital, like in Kenya or Ethiopia, or Somalia prior to 1991.
They don't take into account the change in Somalia's political geography post 1991. Mogadishu is pulling people from Galmudug, Hiirshabelle and Koonfur Galbeed. This is a substantial population, but it is not all of Somalia.
This is why the prediction that Mogadishu will have 36 million people by 2100 is impossible.
They don't take into account the change in Somalia's political geography post 1991. Mogadishu is pulling people from Galmudug, Hiirshabelle and Koonfur Galbeed. This is a substantial population, but it is not all of Somalia.
This is why the prediction that Mogadishu will have 36 million people by 2100 is impossible.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
I would say 20 million is a massive success story.
Hirshabelle, galmudug, SWS and banadir is already a good 60% of somalias population including SL and that percentage hs only gonna grow. One thing I can promise you is that immigration from PL is the last thing that will have any demographic change, even if half of PLs population relocate to xamar the change will be negligible in comparison to the swift migration of people from the 3 densely populated hawiye states surrounding banadir
Abaq
VIP
Somalia is moving to a more decentralized system from a demograpgic point of view which was always the case before colonization. In the South, Kismayo is once again pulling people from the three river basins (Jubba, Tana, and Lag Dheera) as the premier city in the deep South. Mogadishu is drawing population from the Shabelle river basin (Hirshabelle, KG, and Galmudug even if not on the river but for clan reasons); and Hargeisa is drawing people in the North. It's strange that Xamar is drawing people from as far as Galmudug. If it wasn't for clan reasons, it makes no sense. If Galmudug was not neglected by its locals and previous governments, it should naturally have a coastal city that should draw people from the central areas. Galkacyo would be perfect if only it was on the coast. Hobyo might become that city if it gets a decent port. As for the North East, it lacks one supreme city to draw population. Boosaaso has the best potential to become the centre-point for population in the North East. It has a port and history.
Somalia having multiple population and economic centres is a good thing from an economic, military and strategic point of view. We avoid the Bangkok or London syndrome where all the nation's wealth, technology, and population is concentrated in one area. Instead, wealth, opportunity, power, and strength is spread evenly across the country (German style). This means if God forbid we lose one major city in a war, it won't cause total devastation like it would be if Thailand lost Bangkok or England lost London.
Somalia having multiple population and economic centres is a good thing from an economic, military and strategic point of view. We avoid the Bangkok or London syndrome where all the nation's wealth, technology, and population is concentrated in one area. Instead, wealth, opportunity, power, and strength is spread evenly across the country (German style). This means if God forbid we lose one major city in a war, it won't cause total devastation like it would be if Thailand lost Bangkok or England lost London.
I don't think it will even reach 10 million because fertility declines quickly in urban areas. The more people in Galmudug, Hiirshabelle & Koonfur Galbeed move to Banadir, the slower the population growth.
You can see this happen in Djibouti.
Urbanization takes off
Fertility crashes as urbanization rises
Population growth rate crashes after fertility crashed
Abaq
VIP
A better marker for the rate of growth is the level of female education and participation in the economy. The greater the level of female education/participation in the economy, the lower the fertility rate. It is as if the education system is set up to encourage girls to have less kids.
Bosaaso should be much larger than it currently is. It’s the only real city in bari and had a functionung port and draws people as far as sool, sanaag and nugaal due to clan regions yet other than the initial boom following the war it hasn’t grown much even with PL relative stability. I think this is probably due to either reer bari opting for waamo or the fact that it’s scorching hot, so bad that the natives migrate inland during the summer. Either way why bosaso is still so small is a mystery to me
Abaq
VIP
Probably the heat and lack of fertile farmland nearby. To sustain a big urban population, you need easy supply to farm produce. Kismayo has the fertile Jubba basin and rich waamo rangelands, Mogadishu has the fertile Shabelle basin farms and rangelands, Hargeisa has the farmlands to the West and Ethiopia to supply it with produce and the Hawd to supply more meat than it could ever consume. Boosaaso lacks this. Gaalkacyo has good access to rangelands and animal products, but I don't know if it has access to any farmlands of any significant size.
Galmudug-State
VIP
Galkacyo has easy access to Beledweyn farm lands. And it now has Hobyo and Garacd ports.
Galkacyo has potential and is bigger than Bosaso and Kismayo put together. But nothing compares to Mogadishu.
Mogadishu can feed off huge semi urban populations in the South.
Galkacyo has potential and is bigger than Bosaso and Kismayo put together. But nothing compares to Mogadishu.
Mogadishu can feed off huge semi urban populations in the South.
Stop talking about Somalia like its Japan or some shit. Xamar had a population of 10k in 1930 during italian colonisation, in which the largest group were cad cads. Before that it probably was like 5k. Decentralised is a nice way of saying that 90 % of Somalis were nomads with no civilisation before colonisation. I love the way you think somalia becoming like UK/London is a bad thing, as if we could ever achieve 0.0001 % of its prosperity.
What you talking about ? Bosaso has a huge population, it’s the third largest city in somalia.
Baydhabo,Jowhar and even Beledwayne are bigger than Bosaaso when it comes to Somalia.In Somaliweyn (SL,Djibouti,Ethiopia & Kenya) it wouldn't even be top 15.Only Shoe thiefs believe Bosaaso is some megacity
Have you seen it? There’s no way in hell that place even has 100k
Abaq
VIP
Having all Somalis concentrated in one location (Mogadishu) is a colonial legacy. Before that and since the civil war, Somalis have always been more spread out, regardless of whether they are nomads or settled. And I'm not surprised you don't understand the issues with London syndrome, you don't strike me as an intellectual who would understand these conversations.
I been to bosaso 2019 , bosaso is diffently when of the top 3 city in somalia
Bosaso its even better lookin than bomdisho
Bosaso population is close to million if not more
Have you been to bosaso or u just talkin out off ur ass
if u never been there shut ur mouth 
bosaso is one of the fastest growing city in Africa with population close to 1 million
The IDP alone are probably 100k according to UN, they verified 19200 IDP households.
The data from here.
I’m going by the 2014 UNFPA population estimates. The urban population of Bay, Hiiraan, and Middle Shabelle combined is only 60 % of Bari.
