🚨💥🚨Janan lands in Beledhawo and fighting ensues!

[Beyle]

This exactly why madoobe never fought AS , the middle juba is his safety barrier

 

[Jaale Ugaas]

This exactly why madoobe never fought AS , the middle juba is his safety barrier

It wouldn't be in his favour to liberate territory inhabited by Marehan, the Jubaland Raxanweyn and those minorities who live in the area from Jilib to Jamaame

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Yes there is Hawiye opposition to HSM but HSM is quite the politician. He won't blockade them or refuse to meet as shown recently. He told them to speak with Deni and Madoobe, who told them HSM must back down on XYZ terms. HSM is now working on dividing all the opposition. He recognised a new maamul goboleed, which none of them had offered to congratulate. He also has the IC on his side. It is not hard to make Deni or Madoobe look bad, they were considered spoilers in Farmaajo's term and the same now. You can call HSM a hypocrite for getting PuntJub support in a reelection but so what? Every human takes their chances to get ahead.

You are looking at this from a Hawiye vs Darod perspective. They are still the Darod FMS in the 4.5 quota. Even if Deni and Madoobe were defeated it bears no weight on the future of your clan interests. We just need the country to be aligned as one.

You read me wrong sxb, I don’t have skin in the game when it comes to Darod v Hawiye, I have provincial interests and national aspirations. nor do I recognise the token darod in HSM corp, be it barre or xoosh as legitimate representatives of their respective deegan. He’s building up for a confrontation.

 

[reer]

Reer Gedo have the perfect opportunity to align with the FGS and dismantle Madoobe. Mogadishu doesn't care about clan/subclan divergencies if you are loyal to the regime in the Capital as we have seen with SSC. Any betting man would know Madoobe is only entrenching his own clique. The FGS is an elected body that can change hands. In the long run it is always better to support the State than anti state actors who aren't bounded by anything to conduct themselves properly. The State, with the right resources and politicians, can atleast face accountability both domestically and internationally. HSM is not really a bad person here. Had Madoobe been amicable to Muqdisho right from the beginning like GM/HS/KG, he would have ruled peacefully and exited peacefully. Perhaps with enough support he could have competed for the FGS kursi itself.

the donkey hsm removed FGS troops from gedo after his term started out of xin and spite to his predecessor donkey farmajo. now mx youths are dying reversing that donkeys decision and janan the rat has crawled out of his hole. no one should die for both of those donkeys. and nacala ku yaal mx leadership.

 

[Mckenzie]

You read me wrong sxb, I don’t have skin in the game when it comes to Darod v Hawiye, I have provincial interests and national aspirations. nor do I recognise the token darod in HSM corp, be it barre or xoosh as legitimate representatives of their respective deegan. He’s building up for a confrontation.

I just want to know in your opinion what you think the confrontation would look like? Do you think PuntJub would gather men and weapons to attack Xamar? Will they seek alliances with Kenya and Ethiopia? Or would they simply declare no confidence in the Xamar maamul and withdraw from all interstate activities. You see every way i look at this i don't see a PuntJub victory. The best they can do is stall time and complain to the IC about seeking a consensus. Blockading weaponry shipments or ambushing SFG targets in Gedo might seem like winning the battle but the war is far from over. Their war with the SFG will either strengthen federalism or end it. Farmaajo came very close to realising this but PuntJub got Hawiye support in Xamar to stop him by awrkacsi (telling them Farmaajo is bringing back the Kacaan), PuntJub will not have the same appeal to Hawiye opposition against HSM.

 

[Mckenzie]

the donkey hsm removed FGS troops from gedo after his term started out of xin and spite to his predecessor donkey farmajo. now mx youths are dying reversing that donkeys decision and janan the rat has crawled out of his hole. no one should die for both of those donkeys. and nacala ku yaal mx leadership.

He removed those troops to appease Madoobe. When HSM was reelected he temporarily appeased the Mucaarad who fought with Farmaajo by offering them advisory positions, money and removal of any prior blockade. He offered Sharif/Kheyre/AAW to be advisors, he offered Madoobe a voting base in Gedo, he removed all blocked aid to PL etc. This was just to ease his rule into settling down. He then gradually got rid of the appeasement policy, esp when he noticed the Mucaarad of yesterday were not supportive of his war campaign against AS.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

I just want to know in your opinion what you think the confrontation would look like? Do you think PuntJub would gather men and weapons to attack Xamar? Will they seek alliances with Kenya and Ethiopia? Or would they simply declare no confidence in the Xamar maamul and withdraw from all interstate activities. You see every way i look at this i don't see a PuntJub victory. The best they can do is stall time and complain to the IC about seeking a consensus. Blockading weaponry shipments or ambushing SFG targets in Gedo might seem like winning the battle but the war is far from over. Their war with the SFG will either strengthen federalism or end it. Farmaajo came very close to realising this but PuntJub got Hawiye support in Xamar to stop him by awrkacsi (telling them Farmaajo is bringing back the Kacaan), PuntJub will not have the same appeal to Hawiye opposition against HSM.

Referendum on independence, Fortify the border in mudug. Simple as can be. We can expect some internal attack from pro FGS local traitors and others but there won’t be anything more than that now that I think about it.

 

[Jaale Ugaas]

AUN there will be no negations for him he will be locked up if he is captured or better yet killed.

Yep I was right. Fartaag, Janan and Jamaac Cali have been in negotiations with Giif, he said I will surrender if im immune to prosecution and allowed to keep my rank and status and my men will join Janan's forces and get federal level police and millitary salary.

Janan's camp told him you will face prosecution and be locked up. Giif has no leverage and has purposefully denied his men communication with anyone in Beledhawo fearing they would join Janan as soon as they hear of a better paycheck and living conditions.

The only reason he has entered negotiations is because Maxamud Sayid Aden (VP of JL) fled Gedo and took a plane back to Kismayo. Furthermore DC of Dolow Lafey has also requested Madobe arrange for a plane to loiter in Dolow airport in case he needs to leave the city quickly.

Janan is currently busy trying to negotiate with Giif and remaining Madobe loyalists forces in the region. He hopes by dismantling them now he can deprive Lafey of additional forces.

I haven't heard anything about Mahad Salad - Ridwaan meeting but if Lafey loses Ethiopian support there is nothing to stop Dolow from falling into FGS aligned millita control.


In Garbaharey FGS appointed governor Shimbir attended graduation ceremony of of new ciidan intended to bolster Janan's forces they've received weapons and have been put on salary roll.

In Ceelwaaq, Madobe loyalist ciidan have been put on active notice and they're going on a recruitment drive to bolster their numbers.

 

[Jaale Ugaas]

Referendum on independence, Fortify the border in mudug. Simple as can be. We can expect some internal attack from pro FGS local traitors and others but there won’t be anything more than that now that I think about it.

I don't think a referendum on independence without the conset of the FGS would be recognised as legitimate by the world. Nor do I think PL citizens would support it. Unlike SL who has indoctrinated an entire generation into their seccesionst ideology PL doesn't seem to be heading in that direction at all. PL first is still relatively new to majority of the people.

 

[reer]

He removed those troops to appease Madoobe. When HSM was reelected he temporarily appeased the Mucaarad who fought with Farmaajo by offering them advisory positions, money and removal of any prior blockade. He offered Sharif/Kheyre/AAW to be advisors, he offered Madoobe a voting base in Gedo, he removed all blocked aid to PL etc. This was just to ease his rule into settling down. He then gradually got rid of the appeasement policy, esp when he noticed the Mucaarad of yesterday were not supportive of his war campaign against AS.

dont care sxb i have a passionate hatred for mx leaders being cheap prostitutes. i also hope to one day see janan and fartaag and sayid aden and their ilk dead. when one of them first uu bakhtiyo i will be happy. no marehan youth should die for any of those pigs or any hawiye who was drumming the tribal drums yesterday. they shouldnt die for somali politics it is a disaster especially mx leaders.

 

[Abdisamad]

I don't think a referendum on independence without the conset of the FGS would be recognised as legitimate by the world. Nor do I think PL citizens would support it. Unlike SL who has indoctrinated an entire generation into their seccesionst ideology PL doesn't seem to be heading in that direction at all. PL first is still relatively new to majority of the people.

Most Puntlanders don't support seccesionism, we support a strong United Somalia where everyone has the same opportunity to succeed, where we are treated equally.. We are against one man, one group or one city having the power and where injustice and nepotism thrives...

 

[The Oponian Guild]

I don't think a referendum on independence without the conset of the FGS would be recognised as legitimate by the world. Nor do I think PL citizens would support it. Unlike SL who has indoctrinated an entire generation into their seccesionst ideology PL doesn't seem to be heading in that direction at all. PL first is still relatively new to majority of the people.

We just have to wait for the spark that ignites it, most sane young adult PL citizenry is puntland first subconsciously.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Most Puntlanders don't support seccesionism, we support a strong United Somalia where everyone has the same opportunity to succeed, where we are treated equally.. We are against one man, one group or one city having the power and where injustice and nepotism thrives...

This is not true, mudug goorma ayaa kugu dambeysey? The vibe shifted as early as 2021 but I noticed it in 2023, back then I was an npc like you. I read this brother @Abdisamad message and I just see oxymorons and political dreaming.

 

[Jaale Ugaas]

11:10

 

[Removed]

Reer Gedo have the perfect opportunity to align with the FGS and dismantle Madoobe. Mogadishu doesn't care about clan/subclan divergencies if you are loyal to the regime in the Capital as we have seen with SSC. Any betting man would know Madoobe is only entrenching his own clique. The FGS is an elected body that can change hands. In the long run it is always better to support the State than anti state actors who aren't bounded by anything to conduct themselves properly. The State, with the right resources and politicians, can atleast face accountability both domestically and internationally. HSM is not really a bad person here. Had Madoobe been amicable to Muqdisho right from the beginning like GM/HS/KG, he would have ruled peacefully and exited peacefully. Perhaps with enough support he could have competed for the FGS kursi itself.

“Aligned as one” “Amicable”

HSM has publicly expressed wanting control of the port/airport, who will sit in JL statehouse, and to rearrange clan power sharing. There isn’t anything to discuss with Mooryaan.

This exactly why madoobe never fought AS , the middle juba is his safety barrier

Safety barrier from who exactly? AS holds most of Gedo and KG.

You couldn’t even move troops to confront Madoobe within Gedo lol.

 

[Beyle]

Safety barrier from who exactly? AS holds most of Gedo

Thats simply not true , middle juba is 100% AS controlled though and madoobe has done nothing to combat them in over 12 years

You couldn’t even move troops to confront Madoobe within Gedo lol.

A surpise visit where he didnt leave the airport and was protected by traitors and kenyans lol.

FKD aside you must know how bad of a president he is , 12 years and he cant go to 70% of JL ?

 

[AbdiBinLaden]

Is 2025 finally the year Madobe falls? found out on the next episode of Somali Clan federalism Z

 

[Removed]

No ties to sever, barely any aid to withhold, and the ‘military threat’ can’t even hold the Amisom base in Maxaas.

HSM has played every card and forced the disintegration of even a nominal SNA in JL. When this charade is over I just don’t want to see Gedo try and weasel its way back again. The mps have never been worth it.

Thats simply not true , middle juba is 100% AS controlled though and madoobe has done nothing to combat them in over 12 years

A surpise visit where he didnt leave the airport and was protected by traitors and kenyans lol.

View attachment 368934
FKD aside you must know how bad of a president he is , 12 years and he cant go to 70% of JL ?

So the KDF protected Madoobe in Ceelwaaq but couldn’t hold Beled Xaawo for Janan against Farmajo? Imagine being this deluded.

1. Conflict map showcasing AS/ENDF control of Gedo. @Jaale Ugaas also alluded to that reality in this very thread…

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2. Photos of soldiers defending Madoobe inside of Gedo and of their preparation when being sent from Lower Juba.

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3. The supposed ‘Kenyan’ in that photo is Ibraahim Guuled Aadan the Gudoomiye for Ceelwaaq.

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[Beyle]

onflict map showcasing AS/ENDF control of Gedo. @Jaale Ugaas also alluded to that reality in this very thread…

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This graphic shows that none of the major cities in gedo is under AS . However ALL major cities in middle juba + some in lower juba is occupied . Once again madoobes failure

2. Photos of soldiers defending Madoobe inside of Gedo and of their preparation when being sent from Lower Juba.

First pic local operation against AS and the second pic is from the 2020 galmudug conference sksksk . I didnt know dhusamareeb was in gedo

3. The supposed ‘Kenyan’ in that photo is Ibraahim Guuled Aadan the Gudoomiye for Ceelwaaq.

I didnt say he was kenyan ? i said madoobe was protected by traitors and kenyans . Did madoobe steal the literacy funds for afmadow or something ?

FKD aside you must know how bad of a president he is , 12 years and he cant go to 70% of JL ?

^

 

[Removed]

This graphic shows that none of the major cities in gedo is under AS . However ALL major cities in middle juba + some in lower juba is occupied . Once again madoobes failure

Same map that shows the major cities held by ENDF/Amisom?

Madoobe is my failure and Janan/Fartaag is your current Messiah apparently. Who should be embarrassed?

First pic local operation against AS and the second pic is from the 2020 galmudug conference sksksk . I didnt know dhusamareeb was in gedoView attachment 368962

I didnt say he was kenyan ? i said madoobe was protected by traitors and kenyans . Did madoobe steal the literacy funds for afmadow or something ?

^

You’re right heres a video and photo of him in CeelWaaq straight from JLTV. Is that better?

I don’t see any Kenyans nearby but dozens of gunmen. I guess the Gedoans are such loyal subjects the Brave Sayid flew in alone with no protection but a cane