Somalia National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2025-2029

She owns two big malls, large factories as well, various hardware enterprises and many properties under what is called Horyaal Investment Holding Company.

She definitely took advantage
Theres also multiple Horyaal companies in Xamar, dont know if shes associated with them or they just share a name
 
This part here that i quoted also plays a role in explaining the rapid urbanization of the country why it has 115 towns and 30 cities. 64% urbanized.
That same study stated: '' As such cross border trade strengthens economic resilience, alleviates poverty , contributes to the urbanization of the country with a strengthened presence of cities as important centers of trade along strategic corridors. Such trade provides food security for border regions."
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Trade creates steady demand for transport, storage, retail, services. These activities naturally cluster around towns and cities along main trade routes (the “strategic corridors” it mentioned).

Over time, small settlements grow into towns, and towns into cities, because they become logistics and commerce hubs.

It also makes the most sense why most of Somalia is food secure and their markets are fully stocked and supplied with food and how access , availability. quality, resilience and logistics rank high as per WOFP report: How wage labour and exchange rates remain stable throughout the country and as does prices:
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Basically trade networks ensure constant flow of goods, especially food staples, even during shocks. Market competition that keeps prices stable.

Because when traders can import quickly across borders and move goods internally, markets stay stocked and prices stay stable even if one region has a bad harvest.

Why exchange rates remain stable?
Widespread trade generates regular inflows of foreign currency (USD) from exports and diaspora networks

Healthy wage labor markets are tied to logistics, transport, markets.

This keeps local purchasing power strong and helps stabilize exchange rates, unlike other countries that depend on single export sectors or foreign loans.
 
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I've been thinking about what makes this not replicatable in other countries. It seems that it ultimately comes down to having kinship structures to allow you to accumulate pools of capital and deploy it. You see a similar dynamic with south eastern Chinese and jews. Of course kinship structures are not enough. You also need a mercantile culture which in somalis comes from the pastoralist lifestyle combined with seafaring.

A very interesting anti-example that sort of proves this is that both Yemen and southwestern China are mountainous agrarian societies and while I dont know about Yemen the people in southwestern china lack the mercantile culture and are stereotyped as being lazy. I think something about the mountainous agrarian societies makes development harder. I mean look at Ethiopia which is another example of the slow lack of development.
 
I've been thinking about what makes this not replicatable in other countries. It seems that it ultimately comes down to having kinship structures to allow you to accumulate pools of capital and deploy it. You see a similar dynamic with south eastern Chinese and jews. Of course kinship structures are not enough. You also need a mercantile culture which in somalis comes from the pastoralist lifestyle combined with seafaring.

A very interesting anti-example that sort of proves this is that both Yemen and southwestern China are mountainous agrarian societies and while I dont know about Yemen the people in southwestern china lack the mercantile culture and are stereotyped as being lazy. I think something about the mountainous agrarian societies makes development harder. I mean look at Ethiopia which is another example of the slow lack of development.

What you say is true , remember how that study i showed said Singapore, China and Malaysia advanced OFDI (Outward Foreign Investment) , that their companies and business people would invest abroad to create economic growth for themselves in their own country when they were still developing countries and how this is comparable to what the Somali business class has done to advance Somalias economic growth.

But other emerging/developing economies like Kenya etc fail to replicate this, because they think only advanced economies can engage in FDI.

Been reading this further @Midas @Zak12 this paper actually points to something very interesting about the different approaches being made. How in Kenya much like other developing countries focus on only FDI and assume that only advanced economies can invest in other countries but this is unlike what China, Singapore, Malaysia did they recognized the value of OFDI(Outward Foreign Investment) as a path to economic growth and development. Meaning they encouraged their domestic companies to invest abroad to create economic growth and development that emanate from these investments. You invest make more money abroad and then repatriate that income back.
It's very interesting that this is the exact approach Somali companies in Somalia took as well. It's quite interesting to see how Somalia basically leapfrogged doing this in Africa as well. Because imagine this focus on FDI only for the money to leave. ''The most significant source of capital for Somali invesment in Kenya originates in Somalia. This is provided by the members of Somalias business class, particularly those from Mogadishu and Bosaso who usually continue to run parellel businesses in their places of origin"
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'
'FDI in the country has been driven primarily by diaspora and Somali transnational conglomerate investments.. "
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Somali companies based inside Somalia are setting up businesses abroad (Nairobi, UAE, East Africa hubs) not as migrants, but as extensions of their Somali operations.

Invest abroad → earn foreign profits → repatriate profits back home → fuel domestic growth.

This is unusual in Africa, where most states focus only on inward FDI (foreigners investing into the country).

This is the same strategy Singapore, Malaysia and China did. So Somalia has leapfrogged to an OFDI-led growth model something typically seen in emerging Asian tiger economies, not low-income African states.

But think about it further in Singapore and Malaysia the two demographics driving both places economically is not Malay's or Indians, its actually the Chinese with their global diaspora business connections.
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It's the same impact Somalis have across East Africa in open market economies
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The reason seems obvious to anyone how this is most prominent among certain demographic than others like the Jews and Chinese , others don't practice group economics , they don't have tightnit transnational economic networks and they don't have a mercantile culture.

But at the core of it is the Mercantile/industry culture is what drives it , its like you said kinship isn’t enough on its own you also need a cultural orientation toward trade, basically willingness to take risks, move abroad, and seek profit.

With Somalia rising economically the share of Somalis economic ownership will just grow across the Gulf and East Africa. These networks will just be flooded with capital & produce that will strengthen them.
 
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It's the same impact Somalis have across East Africa in open market economies
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Remember when i said @Midas that Somali business men control the supply chains in import/export, this confirms it. Somalis used their global links world wide to create good sourcing, so they basically cut out the middle men to negotiate directly with producers or wholesalers abroad, which gives them lower input costs than local competitors.

Somali businesses thrive because they can sell cheaper while still making profit, which wins them large market share. It explains why they became dominant in essential sectors (fuel, forex, money transfer, supermarkets, electronics, logistics) they beat competitors on price.

Somali businesses operate nodes abroad (Dubai, Guangzhou, Istanbul, Nairobi) to source goods directly. These nodes feed Somali markets and businesses regionally, including Somalia itself.

It shows Somali trade networks are deeply embedded in global supply chains, not small local shops. But are core infrastructure suppliers (fuel, food, forex, logistics, remittance/money transfers)

They focus on smaller profits and on high turnovers , because in competitive markets (like forex, logistics, and trade) speed and volume matter more than large markups.

This is similar to what happens in Somalia. The success depends on offering the best rates not monopolistic pricing power ,which forces continuous innovation and efficiency.

Another thing to note from this is the Somalis dominance in forex from these articles further proves what i said to @Barkhadle1520 . Because it also ties to my foreign exchange argument that if you control sourcing and imports, you also control currency flows tied to those imports.

Since these Somali forex businesses are handling massive inflows/outflows of dollars (and other currencies), it creates a continuous supply of hard currency inside Somali business networks. Somalia won’t face foreign exchange shortages because these networks already pull in foreign currency daily. It constantly circulates instead of leaking out like what happens in Kenya and Ethiopia.

That directly means Somali forex brokers are acting as currency lubricants for regional trade they make it easier and cheaper for goods to move across borders by ensuring access to stable foreign currency flows.
 
It all makes more sense to me now but it further underpins how people have a misunderstanding of how Somalia’s economy is structured. Somali businesses are deeply integrated into regional and global trade, but they do it through transnational networks and vertically integrated conglomerates.

Because many Somali companies control the whole chain from importing/exporting to transport, wholesaling, retail, and even finance, most of the value is created internally and not recorded at each stage like in other countries.


Much of this trade and value creation also happens through Somali owned branches abroad that repatriate profits back home, which doesn’t show up in export data.


So on paper Somalia looks disconnected, but in reality its private sector is tightly connected and generates large capital flows , they’re just invisible to official statistics.
 
What you say is true , remember how that study i showed said Singapore, China and Malaysia advanced OFDI (Outward Foreign Investment) , that their companies and business people would invest abroad to create economic growth for themselves in their own country when they were still developing countries and how this is comparable to what the Somali business class has done to advance Somalias economic growth.

But other emerging/developing economies like Kenya etc fail to replicate this, because they think only advanced economies can engage in FDI.






Somali companies based inside Somalia are setting up businesses abroad (Nairobi, UAE, East Africa hubs) not as migrants, but as extensions of their Somali operations.

Invest abroad → earn foreign profits → repatriate profits back home → fuel domestic growth.

This is unusual in Africa, where most states focus only on inward FDI (foreigners investing into the country).

This is the same strategy Singapore, Malaysia and China did. So Somalia has leapfrogged to an OFDI-led growth model something typically seen in emerging Asian tiger economies, not low-income African states.

But think about it further in Singapore and Malaysia the two demographics driving both places economically is not Malay's or Indians, its actually the Chinese with their global diaspora business connections.
View attachment 373253
View attachment 373254


It's the same impact Somalis have across East Africa in open market economies
View attachment 373256

View attachment 373255
View attachment 373258

The reason seems obvious to anyone how this is most prominent among certain demographic than others like the Jews and Chinese , others don't practice group economics , they don't have tightnit transnational economic networks and they don't have a mercantile culture.

But at the core of it is the Mercantile/industry culture is what drives it , its like you said kinship isn’t enough on its own you also need a cultural orientation toward trade, basically willingness to take risks, move abroad, and seek profit.

With Somalia rising economically the share of Somalis economic ownership will just grow across the Gulf and East Africa. These networks will just be flooded with capital & produce that will strengthen them.
When I woke up today I stumbled upon a video of Jewish billionaires throughout the world, and this thing is starting to make more sense



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It all makes more sense to me now but it further underpins how people have a misunderstanding of how Somalia’s economy is structured. Somali businesses are deeply integrated into regional and global trade, but they do it through transnational networks and vertically integrated conglomerates.

Because many Somali companies control the whole chain from importing/exporting to transport, wholesaling, retail, and even finance, most of the value is created internally and not recorded at each stage like in other countries.


Much of this trade and value creation also happens through Somali owned branches abroad that repatriate profits back home, which doesn’t show up in export data.


So on paper Somalia looks disconnected, but in reality its private sector is tightly connected and generates large capital flows , they’re just invisible to official statistics.
It also probably doesn't help that most of the business activity they engage in happens in africa so nothing is really recorded. Also the fact that one of the earliest businesses somalis engaged in was hawala/money transfer meant they didnt have to use non-somali companies to move their money around who might have logged all the large activity. I mean dahabshil being the largest money transfer company in africa is not a joke.

Also how could I forget worldremit which dominates the digital money transfer market in africa.
 
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Im really beginning to think that this outward foreign direct investment model is low-key like a super power.

This was in someway similar to the role played by overseas chinese who apparently where the ones bringing in over 70-80% of foreign direct investment in china

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There should be an in depth study whatever this is but for somalia
Im pretty sure theres a few articles out there. But its a lot more opaque and unnoticeable. I suspect once somalia's gdp is accurately calculated and rebased the sudden spike will probably attract academic interest from social scientists and economists.
 
You know considering how independent somali capital has been of the state. Its very likely outside stuff like natural disasters and famine and covid. That the growth has been steady or has increased overtime. There should be very little reason why the growth rate should suddenly be 2-3% after 2017 even after covid.

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When I woke up today I stumbled upon a video of Jewish billionaires throughout the world, and this thing is starting to make more sense





You should see the amount of billions Lebanese send back to Lebanon from Nigeria.
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Im really beginning to think that this outward foreign direct investment model is low-key like a super power.

This was in someway similar to the role played by overseas chinese who apparently where the ones bringing in over 70-80% of foreign direct investment in china

View attachment 373279
Even the Foxconn factories that helped turn China into an industrial powerhouse were started by overseas Taiwanese–Chinese investors , the diaspora kickstarted it all.


I’ve been saying this to @Barkhadle1520 for a while now: the Somali diaspora is a massive cheat code. If we simply mobilize it properly , coordinating and channeling the capital and profits that Somali transnational conglomerates are already generating , we could raise the investment capacity needed to without waiting for foreign loans or FDI dependency on outsiders.


It’s actually ironic how some people frame Somalia’s large diaspora as a weakness or complain about Somalis doing outward FDI, when in reality this is the same mechanism that fueled the rise of China, Taiwan, and others.


The difference is that in Somalia’s case, this approach means the economy stays Somali-owned , communities remain stakeholders, and the profits are recycled directly into national development and growth. That advantage can’t be overstated.

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Yeah, exactly ,once Al-Shabaab is dealt with
Unfortunately thats the biggest If
And yes, the fishing industry will go crazy once the full value chain develops from fishermen on the Somali coast to cold chain logistics into Nairobi and beyond. But it won’t stop at fish: Somalia can absolutely export processed foods, livestock products, and agro-industrial goods to the EAC.
This EAC thing will definitely prove useful, one of the only good things HSM has done

Its a market worth billions just up to somalis to decide if they want to take advantage of it, can you imagine an untapped market of 300 million people, they already estimated that sea food exports from Somalia to the EAC could reach 2 billion $

Was also eating some shrimps today, I hope one day I can go to a supermarket back home and buy some
Beyond food, Somalia could become a supplier of oil and fuel, cement, furniture, building materials, consumer goods, and industrial products to the entire region. And for the high value commodities like gold, uranium, rare earths, frankincense/perfumes, Somalia can route them through Dubai and Western markets where the margins are much higher. Many of these sectors already exist in small form it’s just a matter of scaling with capital and technology.
The biggest bet is oil tbh, if that works well it can fund and kick start all the other industries
On top of that, Somalia is well-positioned to build up ICT and AI hardware manufacturing, which would support its already strong fintech, telecom, and logistics networks. That gives Somalia something unique in the region, a tech-industrial base that feeds directly into trade and finance, similar to how Taiwan and Singapore leveraged electronics early on.
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Unfortunately thats the biggest If

This EAC thing will definitely prove useful, one of the only good things HSM has done

Its a market worth billions just up to somalis to decide if they want to take advantage of it, can you imagine an untapped market of 300 million people, they already estimated that sea food exports from Somalia to the EAC could reach 2 billion $

Was also eating some shrimps today, I hope one day I can go to a supermarket back home and buy some

The biggest bet is oil tbh, if that works well it can fund and kick start all the other industries

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One of the places I see think biggest potenial is for the oil revenue to take the already wel developed money transfer industry and the very rapidly growing islamic finance sector to the next level. So that potentially within the next 20 years somali islamic banks dominate the finance industry in east africa and are one of the largest global players in the islamic finance world.

Which considering how much of the African money transfer industry is already dominated by somali companies would not be that difficult.
 
One of the places I see think biggest potenial is for the oil revenue to take the already wel developed money transfer industry and the very rapidly growing islamic finance sector to the next level. So that potentially within the next 20 years somali islamic banks dominate the finance industry in east africa and are one of the largest global players in the islamic finance world.

Which considering how much of the African money transfer industry is already dominated by somali companies would not be that difficult.
Honestly they will grow naturally with the economy, as small businesses and start-ups grow the banks will grow with them, its not something to worry about

Im pretty sure premier bank even launched a new domestic airline last year with modern jets



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Honestly they will grow naturally with the economy, as small businesses and start-ups grow the banks will grow with them, its not something to worry about

Im pretty sure premier bank even launched a new domestic airline last year with modern jets



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Wallahi I cant imagine the scale it'll reach.

I waa just watching this video and honestly if you skip to minute 6:30 the level of gaajo she exposed that these niggas are under shocked me wallhi.
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It made me realize that we're still underestimating out situation


<blockquote class="tiktok-embed" cite="" data-video-id="7547152910220528898" data-embed-from="embed_page" style="max-width:605px; min-width:325px;"> <section> <a target="_blank" title="@hananchannel1655" href="https://www.tiktok.com/@hananchannel1655?refer=embed">@hananchannel1655</a> <p>Maxaa ka socda baraha bulshada ee Masar? Maxayse sirdoonka Masar ka samaynayaan boggeyga? 🤔🤔 <a title="الصومال" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/الصومال?refer=embed">#الصومال</a> <a title="somalia" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/somalia?refer=embed">#Somalia</a> <a title="no_qabiil" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/no_qabiil?refer=embed">#no_qabiil</a> <a title="punt🇸🇴" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/punt🇸🇴?refer=embed">#punt🇸🇴</a> <a title="hananchannel1655" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/hananchannel1655?refer=embed">#hananchannel1655</a> </p> <a target="_blank" title="♬ original sound - Hanan Channel 👑🌹𐒔𐒖𐒒𐒖𐒒" href="https://www.tiktok.com/music/original-sound-7547152994089831190?refer=embed">♬ original sound - Hanan Channel 👑🌹𐒔𐒖𐒒𐒖𐒒</a> </section> </blockquote> <script async src="https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js"></script>
 
Wallahi I cant imagine the scale it'll reach.

I waa just watching this video and honestly if you skip to minute 6:30 the level of gaajo she exposed that these niggas are under shocked me wallhi.
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It made me realize that we're still underestimating out situation


<blockquote class="tiktok-embed" cite="" data-video-id="7547152910220528898" data-embed-from="embed_page" style="max-width:605px; min-width:325px;"> <section> <a target="_blank" title="@hananchannel1655" href="https://www.tiktok.com/@hananchannel1655?refer=embed">@hananchannel1655</a> <p>Maxaa ka socda baraha bulshada ee Masar? Maxayse sirdoonka Masar ka samaynayaan boggeyga? 🤔🤔 <a title="الصومال" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/الصومال?refer=embed">#الصومال</a> <a title="somalia" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/somalia?refer=embed">#Somalia</a> <a title="no_qabiil" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/no_qabiil?refer=embed">#no_qabiil</a> <a title="punt🇸🇴" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/punt🇸🇴?refer=embed">#punt🇸🇴</a> <a title="hananchannel1655" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/hananchannel1655?refer=embed">#hananchannel1655</a> </p> <a target="_blank" title="♬ original sound - Hanan Channel 👑🌹𐒔𐒖𐒒𐒖𐒒" href="https://www.tiktok.com/music/original-sound-7547152994089831190?refer=embed">♬ original sound - Hanan Channel 👑🌹𐒔𐒖𐒒𐒖𐒒</a> </section> </blockquote> <script async src="https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js"></script>
Might wanna edit that message also who are you talking about by gaajo
 

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