Shabab isn't going to be defeated thru an army, their not fighting like it's a war, their objective is to 'disrupt' the nation using an insurgency. The first thing we need to gather is their 'motive'. Is it idealogical? is it tribal? is it a mix of both? do they adapt to clan n faith? We need to find the 'root' cause of 'shabab' and when it was 'founded' and for what reason and by what clan? the root cause is always a 'give' away for their agenda.
For example I know 'cayrow' split from ICU after some of their left to Eritrea to join the opposition of the Govt. Cayrow is 'cayr' and their clan has 'interests' in marka/barawe and currently holding it hostage and also other farming interests in that area. I suspect based on this I could be wrong but they fear a government because they may lose those areas to government forces and become civilians and those districts return back to the locals. I know they refused abdiqasim hassan salat, they then shoot off into shabab when sharif leaves to Eritrea to join the opposition to the government? why? their showing a correlation anytime governance is coming their creating another chaotic group.
This HG clan also started the warlord 'era' which other clans 'copied', so I feel strongly by starting shabab they were luring other clans to continue this project of keeping any governance at bay.
The other thing we need to determine is the 'source' of their 'idealogy' and begin 'studying' them as shabab will coordinate strategies from there in order to prepare. I know shabab uses the famous 'botnet' recruitment process. They infect 1 or 2 from each clan and gather them together to reasonable number and grab 'villages' and 'towns' and from there gain new recruits to increase their supply.
Their not popular at all and appear to be a 'fringe' group like the KKK in America. Their 'motives' are clearly not 'somali orientated' because the world will never allow an Islamist nation, they refused it for egypt morsi, they will just isolate us thru economic sanctions like north korea, iran, etc. This can mean our nationals cannot even travel to Saudi or Dubai who are 'allies' of America just like Iran can't. We will live in a world where we outside the world order which is 'vacuum'. The only people that would want this is 'thugs' so it can be thugs paradise for them as they probably lack the drive or intelligence to work within a structured society.
The other thing I noticed about Shabab is why aren't we creating a 'profile' of their 'attacks' we need to find correlations, how many 'bombs' they did, where they did it, who were the victims and intended targets. We need to develop a 'signature' for them because once we know the signature like a 'virus' we can develop an anti virus. But right now noone has defined the virus let alone develop anti virus. I say start with looking at their 'bomb' material and examine the sites and what material it's made of and begin 'tracing' it to the source market. It was made of 'parts' and where are they sourced, this is where you need to ensure u investigate.
I would even check the person who killed himself or did bomb attack and find out 'history' of them before they did the attack. U need to start from childhood to middle years we will know the 'type' of people shabab recruits or if it's random or 'prepared' in advance. This can tell us how we respond. There is so many intelligence tactics u need to go thru training of intelligence because we do this with IT SECURITY because it's the same just on technologyical level because techonology needs 'amni' because data is important like your bank details, there are HG out there putting 'isbaaro' on the network and redirecting your network packets and deciphering it to find information. Yes HG are moryans always against the system.
For example I know 'cayrow' split from ICU after some of their left to Eritrea to join the opposition of the Govt. Cayrow is 'cayr' and their clan has 'interests' in marka/barawe and currently holding it hostage and also other farming interests in that area. I suspect based on this I could be wrong but they fear a government because they may lose those areas to government forces and become civilians and those districts return back to the locals. I know they refused abdiqasim hassan salat, they then shoot off into shabab when sharif leaves to Eritrea to join the opposition to the government? why? their showing a correlation anytime governance is coming their creating another chaotic group.
This HG clan also started the warlord 'era' which other clans 'copied', so I feel strongly by starting shabab they were luring other clans to continue this project of keeping any governance at bay.
The other thing we need to determine is the 'source' of their 'idealogy' and begin 'studying' them as shabab will coordinate strategies from there in order to prepare. I know shabab uses the famous 'botnet' recruitment process. They infect 1 or 2 from each clan and gather them together to reasonable number and grab 'villages' and 'towns' and from there gain new recruits to increase their supply.
Their not popular at all and appear to be a 'fringe' group like the KKK in America. Their 'motives' are clearly not 'somali orientated' because the world will never allow an Islamist nation, they refused it for egypt morsi, they will just isolate us thru economic sanctions like north korea, iran, etc. This can mean our nationals cannot even travel to Saudi or Dubai who are 'allies' of America just like Iran can't. We will live in a world where we outside the world order which is 'vacuum'. The only people that would want this is 'thugs' so it can be thugs paradise for them as they probably lack the drive or intelligence to work within a structured society.
The other thing I noticed about Shabab is why aren't we creating a 'profile' of their 'attacks' we need to find correlations, how many 'bombs' they did, where they did it, who were the victims and intended targets. We need to develop a 'signature' for them because once we know the signature like a 'virus' we can develop an anti virus. But right now noone has defined the virus let alone develop anti virus. I say start with looking at their 'bomb' material and examine the sites and what material it's made of and begin 'tracing' it to the source market. It was made of 'parts' and where are they sourced, this is where you need to ensure u investigate.
I would even check the person who killed himself or did bomb attack and find out 'history' of them before they did the attack. U need to start from childhood to middle years we will know the 'type' of people shabab recruits or if it's random or 'prepared' in advance. This can tell us how we respond. There is so many intelligence tactics u need to go thru training of intelligence because we do this with IT SECURITY because it's the same just on technologyical level because techonology needs 'amni' because data is important like your bank details, there are HG out there putting 'isbaaro' on the network and redirecting your network packets and deciphering it to find information. Yes HG are moryans always against the system.
