I hear a lot of criticism of HSM and corruption in the FGS. Apparently the US is pulling some support and asking the FGS to start taking the responsibility for supporting Danab.
Is this a sign that HSM is super corrupt or is it just a natural part of the transition away from external support?
I think it's probably both. From now on the FGS will be taking more and more responbilities on to its weak institutions and the house of cards will get stacked higher and higher.
This process will go on for a few years. The government will try to cram for the exam and reform its institutions to cope and it will look it's making progress. Your favourite uncle, nationalist reformer might even be in office while this happens but really it's too little too late.
The weak institutions will be buckling and the FGS will start compromising with anyone who looks like it can help - FMS, Puntland, whoever - maybe even Somaliland. They might even try genuine reconcilliation but by then it's too little too late and the point of collapse is upon it.
Probably less than 5 years.
Anyway just some random thoughts.
Is this a sign that HSM is super corrupt or is it just a natural part of the transition away from external support?
I think it's probably both. From now on the FGS will be taking more and more responbilities on to its weak institutions and the house of cards will get stacked higher and higher.
This process will go on for a few years. The government will try to cram for the exam and reform its institutions to cope and it will look it's making progress. Your favourite uncle, nationalist reformer might even be in office while this happens but really it's too little too late.
The weak institutions will be buckling and the FGS will start compromising with anyone who looks like it can help - FMS, Puntland, whoever - maybe even Somaliland. They might even try genuine reconcilliation but by then it's too little too late and the point of collapse is upon it.
Probably less than 5 years.
Anyway just some random thoughts.