I greatly overestimated Somaliland's state capacity, it's hollow

[Thegoodshepherd]

In Jan 2023, 5 days after the start of the Las Anod conflict, I predicted that the conflict in SSC won't come to end until the 2030s.
I was working under a few assumptions, all of which turned out to be mistaken:

1. Somaliland has a much larger military budget so it should be able to wage war on a larger scale.​
2. It took Somaliland 15 years to reach Tukaraq, so it will take SSC a similar amount of time to reach Oog​
3. Somaliland security forces are much more competent than Puntland's so they will be able to resist a push to Oog.​

All three of these assumptions were proven wrong by SCC forces.

1. Somaliland's military budget is larger, but corruption take a massive bite.​
2. Number of soldiers is inflated, SL forces contain thousands of ghost soldiers, and are 1/3 smaller than was believed.​
3. SSC is fighting on its own territory so the push west to Oog will be much easier than it was for SL to push east.​
4. Somaliland's forces are about as incompetent as those of Puntland. I was confusing greater quantity for quality.​
5. The shocking retreat from Tukaraq to Las Anod demonstrates that SL military leadership is not very good.​
6. SSC forces no longer function as a clan militia, and are able to take a punch, adjust and deliver a response. I did not expect this to be the case in Jan. I underestimated the quality of SSC leadership.​
7. Money is not as important as I thought in Somali warfare. Its impact is smaller than I had thought.​

All in all, Somaliland turned out be much more of a paper tiger than I had imagined.
The SSC posters on this site had a better understanding of its capabilities than I did.
This conflict will likely be resolved a full decade ahead of when I thought it would be.

tl;dr I was wrong

 

[Libaax-Joore]

In Jan 2023, 5 days after the start of the Las Anod conflict, I predicted that the conflict in SSC won't come to end until the 2030s.
I was working under a few assumptions, all of which turned out to be mistaken:

1. Somaliland has a much larger military budget so it should be able to wage war on a larger scale.​
2. It took Somaliland 15 years to reach Tukaraq, so it will take SSC a similar amount of time to reach Oog​
3. Somaliland security forces are much more competent than Puntland's so they will be able to resist a push to Oog.​

All three of these assumptions were proven wrong by SCC forces.

1. Somaliland's military budget is larger, but corruption take a massive bite.​
2. Number of soldiers is inflated, SL forces contain thousands of ghost soldiers, and are 1/3 smaller than was believed.​
3. SSC is fighting on its own territory so the push west to Oog will be much easier than it was for SL to push east.​
4. Somaliland's forces are about as incompetent as those of Puntland. I was confusing greater quantity for quality.​
5. The shocking retreat from Tukaraq to Las Anod demonstrates that SL military leadership is not very good.​
6. SSC forces no longer function as a clan militia, and are able to take a punch, adjust and deliver a response. I did not expect this to be the case in Jan. I underestimated the quality of SSC leadership.​
7. Money is not as important as I thought in Somali warfare. Its impact is smaller than I had thought.​

All in all, Somaliland turned out be much more of a paper tiger than I had imagined.
The SSC posters on this site had a better understanding of its capabilities than I did.
This conflict will likely be resolved a full decade ahead of when I thought it would be.

tl;dr I was wrong

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Qaranka barida weyn is poor ragtag militia

 

[Ismacilssc]

It's not just you but many people thought SL was some crazy boogyman that could even reach moqdisho if they wanted. However just like you said they are too incompetent to achieve sby military victory. Good for SSC and keep up the pressure forgot Oog let's geap burco and berbera before 2030.

 

[Pastoralist]

I had the same thinking. Their instrument doesn’t match their tune. It wasn’t too long ago that you’d hear about marching to garowe. That’s all quieted down now.

A raccoon will normally run away, but if it’s backed into a corner it’ll attack. Lascanood people are fighting for their home. SL soldiers are doing it out xassidnimo and maybe for shidal.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

No, they just believed in their own bullshit. "We can conquer the entire wanlaweyn" "We will capture Garowe"



They are nothing but regular Somali clan militias who benefited from a divided Dhulbahante. Alot of idoors I know personally feel humbled now.

 

[Libaax-Joore]

No, they just believed in their own bullshit. "We can conquer the entire wanlaweyn" "We will capture Garowe"



They are nothing but regular Somali clan militias who benefited from a divided Dhulbahante. Alot of idoors I know personally feel humbled now.

Poor ragtag malitia qaranka baridaweyn don’t have well trained professional army like pmpf

 

[Libaax-Joore]

 

[Som]

It's pretty obvious. The traitor separatist republic can't do anything because SSC have the holy idea of pansomalism under the banner of Somalia and Islam while their ideology is simping for the west and some old dude (king Charles) in the UK. It's obvious they can't succeed despite their campaign to genocide somalis.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Thegoodshepherd Ur budget assumptions is a bit too 'confident' either. Every budget in the world is closed at the end of a financial year, which the SFG/SL don't do becuz their forecast budget in spreadsheets cannot be proven in 'bank account' audit trails, that's why they don't close their budgets and re-start each year with 'new spreadsheet forecasts'.

Their budget my friend is >>>>>> 'hog wash'

 

[repo]

Poor ragtag malitia qaranka baridaweyn don’t have well trained professional army like pmpf

There's not a unit better trained or equipped than PMPF or PSF among the Isaaq. We can tell they lack even basic equipment because their "bases" are mud huts supoprted by tree stems and plastic bags. That's why they keep making bulletins about those two being involved in the SSC war, they know it would be bad for them.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Thegoodshepherd another indicator of a bad economy is 'high taxes' their taxing higher due to low 'trade' which SL always shows these indicators. The amount of trade volume is low, so to overcome this, they apply higher taxes. The SFG is showing these conditions also @bidenkulaha. If 5 trucks come thru PL and the tax rate remains the same, while 2 go thru SFG route with a HIGH tax rate, their revenue might seem larger but it's inflated becuz of taxes not trade. High 'taxes' is the signs of stagnant or lower trade output.

A good economy, the trade volume should grow not the 'tax rates'. But the SFG hasn't closed a single budget on their spreadsheet forecasts and provided the bank accounts to compare their 'bogus forecasts'. Everyone knows the SFG is 90% foreign aid tho, becuz that's all their bank accounts show.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Libaax-Joore I think @Thegoodshepherd doesn't know Somalis are by 'default' liars and anything they say must be taken with a 'grain of salt' first. He actually swallows up SFG/SL budgets but doesnt ask where is 'bank account' yearly trail or reciepts, why don't they ever close a budget must not cross his mind, becuz if they do close it, the bank accounts 'been ma sheego' their is no 'funds' there let alone what their forecasts at the beginning of year predicted.

He must also think the SL tanks are 'real' and not 'painted up' burnt out tanks from the 80ss which don't move let alone be operational. @SirLancelLord knows Dr osman looma been sheegi karo since im 'half moryan'

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Libaax-Joore I think PL is the only state that actually 'trains' it's soldier. @bidenkulaha needs turks-emirates-amisom, wax hamar gudaheed lagu train gareeyo ma arag. I also think SL heads to Ethiopia for training becuz of the heavy 'losses' to their 'sarkaals' which will need another 30 years to develop the same capacity.

Dr Osman dances when I hear cadowga lost a sarkaal, ileen waan aqana 'saamaynta' uu yeelan doono compared to rag-tag 6 month soldier oo la badeli karo

 

[DR OSMAN]

@SirLancelLord only has 2 bms that have actually been seen 'operational' remember operational means they actually 'work' kkkkk not just the engine is 'moving'. The other two BMS could only be functional motor wise but not operational. As for their tanks not a single one has been seen 'moving' let alone 'operational'. @Libaax-Joore these snm thugs will bring 4 bms moving but only 2 really work, the same with their tanks they post picture of 10 painted tanks but the sad thing I have yet to see any operational in the battlefield.

 

[DR OSMAN]

There's not a unit better trained or equipped than PMPF or PSF among the Isaaq. We can tell they lack even basic equipment because their "bases" are mud huts supoprted by tree stems and plastic bags. That's why they keep making bulletins about those two being involved in the SSC war, they know it would be bad for them.

I wouldn't compare PSF/PMPF to anything in the nation. They are simply not in the same league with anything in Somalia. As for the Darawish, I am not sure if Deni Reforms has brought up their status but they were no less quality to anything nation-wide even before Deni Reform. I am hoping they are trained/shaped like PSF/PMPF.