Ran some rough numbers to find out how much of Jubaland's agricultural GDP is generated by nomads vs farmers.
Many people who have been to the Shabelle regions, Hiraan Middle & Lower Shabelle, assume that settlement and production patterns there are similar to Jubaland. I think this is a mistake.
I have suspected that Jubaland is actually a region where nomads dominate the economy and agricultural production.
It is not a place where much farming takes place. The data seem to support this understanding.
Somalia's livestock population distribution in 1999
Somalia's livestock population distribution in 2014, 15 years later. Jubaland's share has gone down slightly.
The lower figures from 2014 were used instead of 2019.
Using crop data from 2019, the last year there was a normal harvest, I calculated how much value in $ farmers in Jubaland produced during that year.
Farmers in Jubaland grew about $25 million worth of crops in 2019.
Source: https://crops.fsnau.org/ & FAOSTAT
For livestock meat production, market data from July-August were used since that is when most livestock sales take place.
For livestock milk production, market data and livestock population data was used along with FAOSTAT production data.
Source: Market Update - July & August 2019, FAOSTAT, IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development (ICPALD)
When all is taken together, farmers contribute something like 6% of Jubaland's agricultural GDP.
Keep in mind that yearly rises and falls in the livestock sector's GDP can be on the order of 10%-15%.
Jubaland is a place where nomads are producing almost all of the agricultural GDP.
If you were to look at Jubaland's total GDP, farming probably accounts for less than 3%.
This should not be surprising. In Somalia as a whole, farming only accounted for 9% of agricultural GDP as recently as 2012.
The farmer of Jubaland are fairly marginal, it is a region of nomads.
Source: SOMALIA: COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM VOLUME I
Further reading:
Sub-Sector Mapping & Value Chain Analysis of the Livestock Sub-Sector in Somalia
Livestock Production in Somalia with Special Emphasis on Camels
SOMALIA TOWARDS A LIVESTOCK SECTOR STRATEGY
Livestock trade and devolution in the Somali-Kenya transboundary corridor
Pastoralism in a Stateless Environment: The Case of the Southern Somalia Borderlands
Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment VOLUME III Federal Member State and Administrative Region Reports
Many people who have been to the Shabelle regions, Hiraan Middle & Lower Shabelle, assume that settlement and production patterns there are similar to Jubaland. I think this is a mistake.
I have suspected that Jubaland is actually a region where nomads dominate the economy and agricultural production.
It is not a place where much farming takes place. The data seem to support this understanding.
Somalia's livestock population distribution in 1999
Somalia's livestock population distribution in 2014, 15 years later. Jubaland's share has gone down slightly.
The lower figures from 2014 were used instead of 2019.
Using crop data from 2019, the last year there was a normal harvest, I calculated how much value in $ farmers in Jubaland produced during that year.
Farmers in Jubaland grew about $25 million worth of crops in 2019.
Source: https://crops.fsnau.org/ & FAOSTAT
For livestock meat production, market data from July-August were used since that is when most livestock sales take place.
For livestock milk production, market data and livestock population data was used along with FAOSTAT production data.
Source: Market Update - July & August 2019, FAOSTAT, IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development (ICPALD)
When all is taken together, farmers contribute something like 6% of Jubaland's agricultural GDP.
Keep in mind that yearly rises and falls in the livestock sector's GDP can be on the order of 10%-15%.
Jubaland is a place where nomads are producing almost all of the agricultural GDP.
If you were to look at Jubaland's total GDP, farming probably accounts for less than 3%.
This should not be surprising. In Somalia as a whole, farming only accounted for 9% of agricultural GDP as recently as 2012.
The farmer of Jubaland are fairly marginal, it is a region of nomads.
Source: SOMALIA: COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM VOLUME I
Further reading:
Sub-Sector Mapping & Value Chain Analysis of the Livestock Sub-Sector in Somalia
Livestock Production in Somalia with Special Emphasis on Camels
SOMALIA TOWARDS A LIVESTOCK SECTOR STRATEGY
Livestock trade and devolution in the Somali-Kenya transboundary corridor
Pastoralism in a Stateless Environment: The Case of the Southern Somalia Borderlands
Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment VOLUME III Federal Member State and Administrative Region Reports
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