FGS has sent letter to UN security council to halt the withdrawal of Amisom/ATMIS

H

Hilmaam

Sound mind sound body
VIP
GaradShabeel said:
@Hilmaam look at this. If I was a Kenya citizen, I'd be the first to sign up. So much money to be made :leon:

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https://www.garoweonline.com/en/wor...ly-withdrawal-from-somalia-in-2024-duale-says
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Burundi has rich neighborhood all the soldiers from Somalia live. They will fight hard for extension and money
amp.dw.com

Burundi rejects AU's troop pullout decision – DW – 02/21/2019

For the 5,400 Burundian soldiers fighting in Somalia, it's time to go home, the African Union says. Burundi's President Nkurunziza disagrees and is fighting the decision.
amp.dw.com amp.dw.com
 
Noble

Noble

SPMLegend said:
Hirshabelle & Galnus are already struggling with Phase 1. The Marehan VP clearly doesn’t want Ethiopia leaving Gedo region, but us Ogadens are not worried for Post Atmis Somalia

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ATMIS will be ending 2024 no doubt however that doesn't mean Somali government can't make a new agreement with frontline states for peacekeeping under a new Pact
I wouldn't be worried about Phase 1 it's already set the record liberating more territory than the last 5 years albeit its moving sluggish now
i'd be more concerned about Jubaland and South west State.
GaradShabeel said:
I've seen Kenyan, Ugandan and other AMTIS countries say that the time is up for Somalia and the deadline won't be changed.

We are on our own now. Ain't no such a things as premature, instead we have to be realistic and think about how FGS are meant to survive post-ATMIS with AS still maintaining a significant control of the country.

Also, what happened with the plans of Ethiopia participating in phase 2? It silently fell under the radar:ayaanswag:
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The reason being you can't form macawisley your only option to librate your land from Al Shabab is Frontline states but that plan has faltered Ethiopia and Kenya are both unwilling to do such an offensive the former has an Amhara uprising to deal with the latter wary of Al-Shabaab resorting to shifting its force across the border and is casualty conscious every since El Adde so that's phase 2 out the window
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so Somalia this time next year as we approach the Atmis deadline shall look like below only red areas free from Shabaab the Kenyans prefers peacekeeping( more lucrative) and Madobe doesn't have a problem with Shabaab controlling the interior so long he controls Kismayo so that is what will continue I mean it's worked for a decade for him :comeon:

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Garaad Hirabu

Garaad Hirabu

@Noble if Kenya doesn't have a mendate in Somalia, what makes you think there will be no Generals that were once loyal to Ahmed Madoobe starting a badbado qaran inside Kismaayo, as Madoobe will have no excuse to say they are attacking African peace keepers inside Kismaayo.
 
Noble

Noble

Garaad Hirabu said:
@Noble if Kenya doesn't have a mendate in Somalia, what makes you think there will be no Generals that were once loyal to Ahmed Madoobe starting a badbado qaran inside Kismaayo, as Madoobe will have no excuse to say they are attacking African peace keepers inside Kismaayo.
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Alshabab would be at your doorstep they would take that too without peacekeepers
 
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Garaad Hirabu

Garaad Hirabu

Noble said:
Alshabab would be at your doorstep and your thinking MX vs OG
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What makes you think Al shabab won't storm Kismaayo? Besides what if a Harti Warsangeli or Majerteen starts a badbado qaran inside Kismaayo, do you think Madoobe can just call on Mohamed Zubair? There will be a civil war in Kismaayo.
 
GaradShabeel

GaradShabeel

VIP
Noble said:
ATMIS will be ending 2024 no doubt however that doesn't mean Somali government can't make a new agreement with frontline states for peacekeeping under a new Pact
I wouldn't be worried about Phase 1 it's already set the record liberating more territory than the last 5 years albeit its moving sluggish now
i'd be more concerned about Jubaland and South west State.

The reason being you can't form macawisley your only option to librate your land from Al Shabab is Frontline states but that plan has faltered Ethiopia and Kenya are both unwilling to do such an offensive the former has an Amhara uprising to deal with the latter wary of Al-Shabaab resorting to shifting its force across the border and is casualty conscious every since El Adde so that's phase 2 out the window
so Somalia this time next year as we approach the Atmis deadline shall look like below only red areas free from Shabaab the Kenyans prefers peacekeeping( more lucrative) and Madobe doesn't have a problem with Shabaab controlling the interior so long he controls Kismayo so that is what will continue I mean it's worked for a decade for him :comeon:

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From a national (FGS) point of view, as long as the capital remains AS-free, then we are off for a good start, irrespective of whether the gov't is fragile and lack power to implement measures.

To ensure that AS will not be posing a threat to the existence of FGS, then ideally Hiiraan, L/Shabelle, M/Shabelle, Bay and Bakool must be in the control of the gov't. Which means that all other regions/states are of little strategic value for now, including JL.

This is obviously unrealistic, but at the bare minimum, the regions surrounding the capital must liberated, L/Shabelle, M/Shabelle and Bay to be specific. This scenario will probably not be fully achieved either. Which will later prove us that liberating, or prioritizing, the red areas (phase 1) was a strategic mistake given that AS will be right outside Xamar by the time ATMIS leave.

We can't change the operations now. But the question that remains to be addressed; will we be able to contain them from marching and taking over Xamar? I'm not sure...
 
GaradShabeel

GaradShabeel

VIP
Garaad Hirabu said:
What makes you think Al shabab won't storm Kismaayo? Besides what if a Harti Warsangeli or Majerteen starts a badbado qaran inside Kismaayo, do you think Madoobe can just call on Mohamed Zubair? There will be a civil war in Kismaayo.
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Badbaado qaran kulaha kkk. You have yet to realize the seriousness of the dire situation. AS is not far from Kismaayo and mark my words, they have already sorted out a plan on how they will take over JL and surrounding regions.

It's now up to reer Kismaayo & JL to decide how they will defend their land. The more divided the locals are, the easier it will be. Even if you're united, it will be hard to prevent an AS takeover due to their massive capabilities.

Garaad Hirabu said:
What


Do you think this will be the end of Madoobe?
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I don't know what his plans are. But the existence of JL is on the line now, forget about the future of Axmed Madoobe. This should be a secondary thought.

The gov't and SNA & Co. seem to be focused elsewhere and have provided little resources to defend the state. Which is a huge miscalculation in my opinion. As a result, the locals aren't as armed as AS. We'll have see how long they can sustain fightings and what regions that will survive.
 
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El Nino

El Nino

Cabsi cabsi
VIP
Hilmaam said:
I hope they leave 2024 this war needs winner or peace agreement.

lol these Africans greedy they want them money to continue without lifting finger. Ethiopia ain’t about that life and fighting in southern forests. Galmudug bloody and it’s barely any cover for Al shabab very confusing. Al shabab I don’t see how they are estimated at 15k when they lose hundreds every week with this offensive
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FGS should clean up GM, HS and maybe s/hoose and Bay (highway to Baidoa), anything else is a pipe dream. They get alot of money from Baydowa and s/hoose, this would impact them severely.
 
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