Paraphrasing Mawhood, P. (1984). The Politics of Survival: Federal States in the Third World.:
In recent times it has been more common for a federation to collapse than to endure. Normally a federation fragments into it's component parts, or becomes in reality ( whether or not the name of "federation" is retained) a unitary state.
In the third world, a good federation is one that is still there after ten years have passed.
Surviving federations: Malaysia, India, Nigeria. While surviving as federations, all three have had their constitutions changed.
Malaysia and Nigeria have colonial history of decentralized administration which passed over into independence. Prefederation history of decentralized administration for the regions or provinces might be a force favoring stability in these cases.
India's federalism has the following features: a single judiciary, All-India Civil Service that staffed higher posts in state as well as federal administration. India's central government was authorized to substitute for the government of any state that in its opinion was failing to perform satisfactorily. Furthermore, in an emergency, the system was designed to become a unitary system of government. Even in normal times the centre maintained its dominance over much of the economy through economic planning controls. India's federalism is based on linguistic regions.
Failed federations: Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, The West Indies, Mali Federation, Cameroon, Libya, Jordan/Iraq, Eygpt/Yemen, Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan, Indochina and Indonesia, Senegambia.
..federalism does not work when it is imposed or at any rate urged, upon dependent territories by departing colonial administratiors; that is it is not a solution to built in divergencies and basic disunity....
Own thoughts:
Somalia doesn't have the features of surviving federations so that suggests to me Somalia will either become a unitary state or balkanize. Considering overwhelming international support for the FGS, I would guess that Somalia moves towards a unitary state notwithstanding pressure from regional adminstrations.
In recent times it has been more common for a federation to collapse than to endure. Normally a federation fragments into it's component parts, or becomes in reality ( whether or not the name of "federation" is retained) a unitary state.
In the third world, a good federation is one that is still there after ten years have passed.
Surviving federations: Malaysia, India, Nigeria. While surviving as federations, all three have had their constitutions changed.
Malaysia and Nigeria have colonial history of decentralized administration which passed over into independence. Prefederation history of decentralized administration for the regions or provinces might be a force favoring stability in these cases.
India's federalism has the following features: a single judiciary, All-India Civil Service that staffed higher posts in state as well as federal administration. India's central government was authorized to substitute for the government of any state that in its opinion was failing to perform satisfactorily. Furthermore, in an emergency, the system was designed to become a unitary system of government. Even in normal times the centre maintained its dominance over much of the economy through economic planning controls. India's federalism is based on linguistic regions.
Failed federations: Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, The West Indies, Mali Federation, Cameroon, Libya, Jordan/Iraq, Eygpt/Yemen, Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan, Indochina and Indonesia, Senegambia.
..federalism does not work when it is imposed or at any rate urged, upon dependent territories by departing colonial administratiors; that is it is not a solution to built in divergencies and basic disunity....
Own thoughts:
Somalia doesn't have the features of surviving federations so that suggests to me Somalia will either become a unitary state or balkanize. Considering overwhelming international support for the FGS, I would guess that Somalia moves towards a unitary state notwithstanding pressure from regional adminstrations.