Federalism is likely finished if Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland

[Thegoodshepherd]

If Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland, imo <10% chance of this happening, federalism is finished.
Recognition of Somaliland by Ethiopia, followed by the creation of an Ethiopian navy stationed on the Gulf of Aden, would transform federalism into a suicide pact.
The only option at that point would be the consolidation of a centralized Somali state.
My support for federalism was always predicated on:

• Ethiopia respecting Somalia's sovereignty
• The consequent lack of a need to build a military capable of taking on the ENDF

Federalism would be indefensible if Ethiopia demonstrates that it has no respect for Somalia's "7" borders.

 

[mohamedismail]

If Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland, imo <10% chance of this happening, federalism is finished.
Recognition of Somaliland by Ethiopia, followed by the creation of an Ethiopian navy stationed on the Gulf of Aden, would transform federalism into a suicide pact.
The only option at that point would be the consolidation of a centralized Somali state.
My support for federalism was always predicated on:

• Ethiopia respecting Somalia's sovereignty
• The consequent lack of a need to build a military capable of taking on the ENDF

Federalism would be indefensible if Ethiopia demonstrates that it has no respect for Somalia's "7" borders.

If this did happen what would happen with regards to the Ethiopian troops within Somalia, especially the non Amisom troops? Would we be able to get rid of them.

 

[RiceMuncher]

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[GaradShabeel]

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[Nin123]

If Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland, imo <10% chance of this happening, federalism is finished.
Recognition of Somaliland by Ethiopia, followed by the creation of an Ethiopian navy stationed on the Gulf of Aden, would transform federalism into a suicide pact.
The only option at that point would be the consolidation of a centralized Somali state.
My support for federalism was always predicated on:

• Ethiopia respecting Somalia's sovereignty
• The consequent lack of a need to build a military capable of taking on the ENDF

Federalism would be indefensible if Ethiopia demonstrates that it has no respect for Somalia's "7" borders.

The government need to spend 1/3 of the budget on the military 140 million is nothing compared to 1.8 billion dollars of Ethiopia army.

 

[Midwestern]

I don’t think anything will happen. This whole port deal seems like a diversion tactic for both Abiy and Bixi who are facing economic pressure and other crises.

 

[Pastoralist]

I don’t think anything will happen. This whole port deal seems like a diversion tactic for both Abiy and Bixi who are facing economic pressure and other crises.

Abiy is crazy you can never be too careful with him. He attacked and killed like 500’000 civilians during tplf war, that’s nothing compared to what he’s doing now.

 

[Midwestern]

Abiy is crazy you can never be too careful with him. He attacked and killed like 500’000 civilians during tplf war, that’s nothing compared to what he’s doing now.

Abiy has little to lose. The walls are closing in on him.

 

[cow]

Ethiopia won't be done with just somaliland.

 

[GemState]

A unitary, democratic, decentralized state is the only way forward. Any other system will fail in the long run