Ahmed Madoobe will stay for another 10 years

[Abaq]

Love him or hate him but he is not going anywhere. His legal term ended on the 23rd and a new chapter began for him on the 24th. He famously said 'anoo meyd sida ayaan Kismaayo soo galay, anoo meyd ahna un baan ka bixi'. Now that Gedo is firmly back under his control, he is currently buying out most of his opposition in Nairobi with good success so far. I am hearing Deni is also seeking a rapprochement with him. Next on his to-do list is the Middle Jubba campaign once the Galguduud operation ends.

Once he has all three gobols under his control again, he will turn on HSM who will at that point be very unpopular across the country. He will ally himself with the opposition and re-invent himself once more. He will see HSM out and will position himself to get even more influence and power in the next regime.

Love him or hate him, he is teaching Somalis a masterclass in politics

 

[Abaq]

 

[bidenkulaha]

HSM isn’t going anywhere. I do wonder when this will dawn on people though

 

[Abaq]

HSM isn’t going anywhere. I do wonder when this will dawn on people though

Please bookmark this thread

 

[bidenkulaha]

Please bookmark this thread

If I bookmarked every thread, I’d spend the past 2 years on this site gloating.

HSM will defeat Shabaab, hold 1m1v elections and win re-election. All peacefully.

He’ll out last Madoobe this time

 

[Abaq]

If I bookmarked every thread, I’d spend the past 2 years on this site gloating.

HSM will defeat Shabaab, hold 1m1v elections and win re-election. All peacefully.

He’ll out last Madoobe this time

No need for back and forth. Just bookmark this one and we will revisit it come election day. I know Somalis, even Abgaal will be sick of him by the end of his term. Somalis get bored easily and they love change for the sake of change

 

[bidenkulaha]

No need for back and forth. Just bookmark this one and we will revisit it come election day. I know Somalis, even Abgaal will be sick of him by the end of his term. Somalis get bored easily and they love change for the sake of change

Nah he’ll have money this time. Like big money for projects, you’ll all love him.

Next election won’t happen in Afsiyone

 

[Step a side]

HSM won’t have another term unless he does something really special that makes people fall in love with him. So far he lost reer Hiiraan, Puntland, SWS. In fact the biggest mucaarad to HSM are his fellow Abgaal kin especially Wacbuudan. HG really did benefit from HSM so I don’t really blame them for wanting HSM to stay longer but unfortunately you need to please more people than just HG and Ogaden to get somewhere in Somalia.

 

[bidenkulaha]

HSM won’t have another term unless he does something really special that makes people fall in love with him. So far he lost reer Hiiraan, Puntland, SWS. In fact the biggest mucaarad to HSM are his fellow Abgaal kin especially Wacbuudan. HG really did benefit from HSM so I don’t really blame them for wanting HSM to stay longer but unfortunately you need to please more people than just HG and Ogaden to get somewhere in Somalia.

HSM will come around to that but you have to take into account most of the voting will be in Xamar.

Urbanised regions will dominate electoral politics.

Defeating Shabaab and the propaganda from him flying jet aircraft will win enough support. He’ll rebuild Hirshabelle next year, that issue will be resolved. HSM isn’t the reason Xawaadle aren’t president of Hirshabelle. He helped liberate Shabaab from them and likely will pick Xawaadle UPD candidate.

It’s also rumoured he’ll pick a reer mataan mayor next year. He’ll bring more people on his train as time goes on

 

[GaradShabeel]

HSM will come around to that but you have to take into account most of the voting will be in Xamar.

Urbanised regions will dominate electoral politics.

Defeating Shabaab and the propaganda from him flying jet aircraft will win enough support. He’ll rebuild Hirshabelle next year, that issue will be resolved. HSM isn’t the reason Xawaadle aren’t president of Hirshabelle. He helped liberate Shabaab from them and likely will pick Xawaadle UPD candidate.

It’s also rumoured he’ll pick a reer mataan mayor next year. He’ll bring more people on his train as time goes on

If it comes to 1p1v, HSM may have a change if he gets the OG votes outside of HAG (especially if Xamse stick with him until the end).

In Xamar, if D&M and Jreer can get all of their people to vote, it will be detrimental for HSM. He's also unpopular in many other regions.

What will even happen to the Dir votes? If they're selected from Xamar and HSM continue satisfying them (not anti-SL in the war), then he may retain power.

 

[bidenkulaha]

If it comes to 1p1v, HSM may have a change if he gets the OG voted outside of HAG if Xamse stick with him until the end.

In Xamar, if D&M and Jreer can get all of their people to vote, it will be detrimental for HSM. He's also unpopular in many other regions.

What will even happen to the Dir votes? If they're selected from Xamar and HSM continue satisfying them (not anti-SL in the war), then he may retain power.

You have to remember he’ll definitely be on the ballot. He will be on the ballot against one other candidate as things stand. It depends on the route they go.

IMO he can get 50+1 if the system is just him vs second place party candidate after next years local elections. But it’s dependent on defeating Shabaab and all the post-HIPC projects. Plus having popular FMS leaders within the states that will back him.

He’ll get around to replacing the current FMS leaders, let’s see if he has success in how many FMS is under his control for the next election

 

[bidenkulaha]

@GaradShabeel MPs won’t matter. It’s a direct presidential election.

They’ll only matter after the election for legislation

 

[GaradShabeel]

You have to remember he’ll definitely be on the ballot. He will be on the ballot against one other candidate as things stand. It depends on the route they go.

IMO he can get 50+1 if the system is just him vs second place party candidate after next years local elections. But it’s dependent on defeating Shabaab and all the post-HIPC projects. Plus having popular FMS leaders within the states that will back him.

He’ll get around to replacing the current FMS leaders, let’s see if he has success in how many FMS is under his control for the next election

Even they end up with the two party system, if will depend on who the second candidate will be. Also, I haven't seen anything about how those two parties (and candidates) will be chosen.

What difference will changing FMS leaders have in the context of 1p1v? If he seriously wants power, those project will have small effect by themselves.

Can't believe that he doesn't take it serious enough to invest heavily in improving his media portrayal, especially using his achievements to advance his interests. This is how you trick the Somali masses into supporting you, like Farmaajo did.

 

[GaradShabeel]

@GaradShabeel MPs won’t matter. It’s a direct presidential election.

They’ll only matter after the election for legislation

A presidential election only held in territory under FGS means that he'll gather even less votes then.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Even they end up with the two party system, if will depend on who the second candidate will be. Also, I haven't seen anything about how those two parties will be chosen.

What difference will changing FMS leaders have in the context of 1p1v? If he seriously wants power, those project will have small effect by themselves.

Can't believe that he doesn't take it serious enough to invest heavily in improving his media portrayal, especially using his achievements to advance his interests. This is how you trick the Somali masses into supporting you, like Farmaajo did.

Qabiil politics. The FMS leaders he choses in the southern states will determine support from sub clans of HG, Abgaal, Xawaadle, RX, OG etc

 

[bidenkulaha]

A presidential election only held in territory under FGS means that he'll gather even less votes then.

Yes. That’s the idea. NCC meeting on Saturday to confirm the plans in Dhusamareb

 

[GaradShabeel]

Qabiil politics. The FMS leaders he choses in the southern states will determine support from sub clans of HG, Abgaal, Xawaadle, RX, OG etc

True, but some clans are more united while others are divided. But it's possible that he may get the support of those clans you mentioned,

However, D&M are big clan. I'm not even sure how they view HSM. @mohamedismail

 

[Removed]

@Abaq I believe Madoobe is leaving and not only that but a Mx could likely replace him.

A presidential election only held in territory under FGS means that he'll gather even less votes then.

Thats impossible the FGS will relinquish de facto control to the states if 1m1v is achieved. Its not feasible for HSM to control PL elections and I doubt he trusts Madoobe in the slightest to rely on anything in JL from him. This is without including Hiraan and SWS.

Would HSM prefer that chaos to indirect elections where hes won twice? I doubt it, but Hawiyes arent known for being stuck to the seat so I wont be surprised if he brings 1m1v to the table.

 

[bidenkulaha]

@Abaq I believe Madoobe is leaving and not only that but a Mx could likely replace him.

Thats impossible the FGS will relinquish de facto control to the states if 1m1v is achieved. Its not feasible for HSM to control PL elections and I doubt he trusts Madoobe in the slightest to rely on anything in JL from him. This is without including Hiraan and SWS.

Would HSM prefer that chaos to indirect elections where hes won twice? I doubt it, but Hawiyes arent known for being stuck to the seat so I wont be surprised if he brings 1m1v to the table.

He wants 1m1v, must have nightmares from that meeting before election day with 200+ MPs before they later said ‘no more Abgaal’. Secret ballot indirect elections lead to washamsi.

An election on the back of defeating Shabaab and splashing some IMF money is his best chance at victory.

Nearly 3 years though, a lot can happen.

 

[bidenkulaha]

True, but some clans are more united while others are divided. But it's possible that he may get the support of those clans you mentioned,

However, D&M are big clan. I'm not even sure how they view HSM. @mohamedismail

He just needs to divide them enough. A bit of each clan. And pick the largest sub within them.

I’m not sure Madoobe+Hussein Sheikh Mohamud who are both reer Xuddur’s population within RX but it’s likely HSM allies with them. On HG, he’ll go for an Cayr pick (largest sub). We could see him try to elect a MX in JL to get their support. And Xawaadle in Hirshabelle.